(02 Oct 2020, 11:07 pm)Bazza wrote [ -> ]You’re missing the point. Arriva seem to be an easy target on here. The negativity for them is astounding, only matched by the impression that GNE can do no wrong. I made a couple of points earlier on in this thread and was surprised nobody picked up on them. Either nobody disagreed with what I said or the points that I made were widely off the mark. Which was it?
As to the comments quoted above, where is the evidence that DB are sucking Arriva dry? If it’s your opinion, then say so, or provide the evidence, don’t just make a statement purporting it to be a fact.
Don't really want to go on a rant, but you're right. All of the big 3 are just as bad as each other cutting services and forcing Nexus, DCC & NCC to contract out sections and/or services to ill-equipped independents. To add on to your point Havent Arriva Merseyside gained new Enviro 200MC EV's within the last 18 months.
(03 Oct 2020, 9:49 am)ASX_Terranova wrote [ -> ]Don't really want to go on a rant, but you're right. All of the big 3 are just as bad as each other cutting services and forcing Nexus, DCC & NCC to contract out sections and/or services to ill-equipped independents. To add on to your point Havent Arriva Merseyside gained new Enviro 200MC EV's within the last 18 months.
That was 3 years ago (67 Plates)
The average age of the fleet at Blyth is 11 years. The newest bus at the depot is 8 years old. If that is not under investment by DB I don't know what is.
(03 Oct 2020, 7:57 pm)Driver9*** wrote [ -> ]The average age of the fleet at Blyth is 11 years. The newest bus at the depot is 8 years old. If that is not under investment by DB I don't know what is.
You seem to base your entire view on Arriva on the operation out of Blyth, ever thought that it just doesn't warrant new vehicles to the extent other depots do?
(03 Oct 2020, 7:57 pm)Driver9*** wrote [ -> ]The average age of the fleet at Blyth is 11 years. The newest bus at the depot is 8 years old. If that is not under investment by DB I don't know what is.
The average age of the fleet at Percy Main is 9 years. The newest bus at the depot is 7 years old. If that is not under investment by GoAhead I don't know what is.
The average age of the fleet at Hartlepool is 11 years. The newest bus at the depot is 9 years old. If that is not under investment by Stagecoach I don't know what is.
Just saying...
(01 Oct 2020, 5:42 pm)Storx wrote [ -> ]Some of you on here are really blinded by shiny new things mind so much Arriva hate on here just because they don't buy new buses all the time. I might be different but personally I'd rather sit on a 10 year old bus (which is not old and doesn't need replacing) rather than sitting on a Gateshead Central Taxi service because my local company doesn't fancy running the service at night or having to use a taxi because my service just disappeared over night. Just looking at North of the Tyne on an Arriva vs Stagecoach vs GNE level.
I can't name one cut in the past 5 years between both Arriva and Stagecoach (admit I don't follow Stagecoach so might be something there with the 18/32/32A that's changed believe they were within 5 years) but can name some improvements. X30 direct to Blyth, 57A on Sundays, X24 direct to Sunderland, 22 extension to Cobalt, 1 extension to Cobalt etc.
Then there's GNE; 5 no longer through the tunnel,309 cut to 20 minutes, 310 cut to 20 minutes, 58 scrapped (no link to Gateshead), 1 cut to 20 minutes, 42 abandoned East of Wallsend, 40/41 butchered in half. 11/19/40/41/42 served by Gateshead Taxis in the evening. Improvements 19 evening 3 runs from Cobalt.
Arriva really aren't that bad; First is a bad company who've just shut depots down recently as they just don't fancy them anymore leaving places completely abandoned. I really don't think Arriva Northumbria will struggle to sell any of their depots regardless to the vehicles they have there heck Go Ahead just bought a depot in Manchester (GoNorthWest) from First which was an absolute basket case and inherited an ancient fleet from there - someone would be interested. Arriva's problem areas are down south in the Medway and Midlands where the fleet really is getting old and they'll be the ones they'll struggle to shift imo.
Just to add in their last accounts:
Arriva Midlands: 80k Profit
Arriva Midlands North: 2.86m Loss
Arriva Kent and Surrey: 2.32m Loss
Whereas we're I believe Arriva's strongest area:
Arriva Durham County: 4.429m Profit
Arriva Northumbria: 1.50m Profit
Arriva Yorkshire: 4.41m Profit
which is higher than GNE.
Both Arriva and Stagecoach in the North East, despite being significantly smaller operations than Go North East, both make more profit than Go North East.
(03 Oct 2020, 9:15 pm)Storx wrote [ -> ]The average age of the fleet at Percy Main is 9 years. The newest bus at the depot is 7 years old. If that is not under investment by GoAhead I don't know what is.
The average age of the fleet at Hartlepool is 11 years. The newest bus at the depot is 9 years old. If that is not under investment by Stagecoach I don't know what is.
Just saying...
Excluding school buses (which, on paper, should only be on scholars), the average age of the fleet at Percy Main is actually 8.2 and the youngest bus is actually 6 years old (the 63-plate Volvo B9 which were new in 2014). There is quite a substantial difference between an average age of 8 and 11.
(04 Oct 2020, 12:06 pm)Dan wrote [ -> ]Excluding school buses (which, on paper, should only be on scholars), the average age of the fleet at Percy Main is actually 8.2 and the youngest bus is actually 6 years old (the 63-plate Volvo B9 which were new in 2014). There is quite a substantial difference between an average age of 8 and 11.
And not forgetting that 6099-6117 have been extensively refurbished and were only 5-5.5 year old when completed.
At least Go North East do their refurbs properly unlike Arriva who just take an ex London Gemini and tart it up as a premium 'express' bus. Although Go North East are refurbishing 6001-6007 and 6049-6055 which are 8-9 year old, they are a 'heavyweight' vehicle type and subsequently have a long shelf life left in them. Probably wouldn't surprise me if they were kept in front line service until about 12-15 year old.
(04 Oct 2020, 12:06 pm)Dan wrote [ -> ]Excluding school buses (which, on paper, should only be on scholars), the average age of the fleet at Percy Main is actually 8.2 and the youngest bus is actually 6 years old (the 63-plate Volvo B9 which were new in 2014). There is quite a substantial difference between an average age of 8 and 11.
tbf it was more a point if you pick out one depot it doesn't give a true representation of the whole company. It's 7 years rounded though for B9's.
(04 Oct 2020, 1:24 pm)L469 YVK wrote [ -> ]And not forgetting that 6099-6117 have been extensively refurbished and were only 5-5.5 year old when completed.
At least Go North East do their refurbs properly unlike Arriva who just take an ex London Gemini and tart it up as a premium 'express' bus. Although Go North East are refurbishing 6001-6007 and 6049-6055 which are 8-9 year old, they are a 'heavyweight' vehicle type and subsequently have a long shelf life left in them. Probably wouldn't surprise me if they were kept in front line service until about 12-15 year old.
There's no ex London Gemini's in frontline service at Blyth which are all spares. I'd rather have a refurbished ex London Gemini than a Omnidekka any day.
X7/X8/X9: 1493, 1501 - 1505, 7601 - 7608
X10/X11: 7611 - 7617, 7621 - 7625
308: 7628 - 7635
Spares: 1497, 7620, 7636 - 7637
The ex London deckers are being used on the expresses atm though to give the 1 and 2 full size singles and the X7/X8/X9 deckers for social distancing.
(04 Oct 2020, 3:48 pm)Storx wrote [ -> ]tbf it was more a point if you pick out one depot it doesn't give a true representation of the whole company. It's 7 years rounded though for B9's.
There's no ex London Gemini's in frontline service at Blyth which are all spares. I'd rather have a refurbished ex London Gemini than a Omnidekka any day.
X7/X8/X9: 1493, 1501 - 1505, 7601 - 7608
X10/X11: 7611 - 7617, 7621 - 7625
308: 7628 - 7635
Spares: 1497, 7620, 7636 - 7637
The ex London deckers are being used on the expresses atm though to give the 1 and 2 full size singles and the X7/X8/X9 deckers for social distancing.
Of the 5 old deckers 7485 and 7487 spend as much time breaking down and/or under repair as they do on the road. 7410/11 are decent enough motors considering their age, I've not had the "pleasure" of trying 7490 yet. Then throw in the fact the two surviving commanders 1401/2 are becoming very unreliable and the six 15 year old dennis darts very much on borrowed time......
(04 Oct 2020, 1:24 pm)L469 YVK wrote [ -> ]And not forgetting that 6099-6117 have been extensively refurbished and were only 5-5.5 year old when completed.
At least Go North East do their refurbs properly unlike Arriva who just take an ex London Gemini and tart it up as a premium 'express' bus. Although Go North East are refurbishing 6001-6007 and 6049-6055 which are 8-9 year old, they are a 'heavyweight' vehicle type and subsequently have a long shelf life left in them. Probably wouldn't surprise me if they were kept in front line service until about 12-15 year old.
I think this post proves my point perfectly
I do think that if it does get sold off bit by bit, Ashington depot would fit perfectly within GNE's current strategy. Only trouble would be service number parity for existing and incoming services so this is what I'd suggest:
Current GNE services:
- X15 > X4
- X20 > 20X or X90
- X30 > X2
- X31 > X3
- X32 > X3A
Incoming Arriva services:
- X15 = Same
- X20 = Same
- X21/ X22 > X31/X32 (Paying homage to previous incarnations)
- 35 > 435
(05 Oct 2020, 9:35 pm)Bazza wrote [ -> ]Do you think GNE are in a position to buy Arriva Northumbria?
They have a surplus of buses (and drivers) due to the loss of contracts.
They heavily invested in new buses before the pandemic hit.
They have had to invent a coaching division as they have a surplus of unwanted NatEx coaches that they couldn’t hope to sell at a reasonable price.
As the NatEx network is still not up and running fully those coaches are also lying idle.
As detailed above, They have made less profit than both Arriva and Stagecoach, despite being the bigger operator
Is there any evidence of this, or is this just speculation? Isn't this something Go North East has done for several years now, just never formally 'branded'?
Due to PSVAR, there's been a huge surge in demand for ex-National Express coaches. It's only until recently that the market has been truly awash with coaches, due to the collapse of National Holidays. Go North East has still managed to sell a fair number of coaches within the last six months.
The irony being that these 'unwanted' coaches probably turn a bigger profit on rail replacement work than they do on National Express work - and, as has been evidenced recently, Go North East has been the major player in the North East bus scene, in terms of providing vehicles and drivers for these rail replacements.
Almost all of Go North East's National Express coaches are in use - nine on National Express work, with the majority of the others being allocated to scholars and/or scholars duplicates (ironically mainly for Arriva North East).
(06 Oct 2020, 6:52 am)Dan wrote [ -> ]Is there any evidence of this, or is this just speculation? Isn't this something Go North East has done for several years now, just never formally 'branded'?
Due to PSVAR, there's been a huge surge in demand for ex-National Express coaches. It's only until recently that the market has been truly awash with coaches, due to the collapse of National Holidays. Go North East has still managed to sell a fair number of coaches within the last six months.
The irony being that these 'unwanted' coaches probably turn a bigger profit on rail replacement work than they do on National Express work - and, as has been evidenced recently, Go North East has been the major player in the North East bus scene, in terms of providing vehicles and drivers for these rail replacements.
Almost all of Go North East's National Express coaches are in use - nine on National Express work, with the majority of the others being allocated to scholars and/or scholars duplicates (ironically mainly for Arriva North East).
I’ll happily admit to it being complete speculation.
My post was more about getting some debate going rather than the usual slagging off of Arriva. You will see it’s more or less the same comment that was made further up the thread. No one bit on that comment, although there are a couple on here who have an opinion on everything. I also note that you managed to get in a dig at Arriva. The fact that at the moment GNE is able to provide these dupes because of an excess of drivers / buses due to a reduction in overall services . What happens when the need for dupes end? The buses maybe sold, what about the jobs?
its interesting to note that you have only replied to the coaching side of my post...
Just to add to what Bazza has said which I agree with. On the debate front, some of you seem to have an idea that there's not a cat in hell chance that Arriva will be able to sell it's North East depots. Do you really think that GoNorthEast will fly off the market aswell. It has a new fleet at some depots (which for an investor isn't particularly a good thing) and makes the least profit out the 3.
For an investor they want to buy something that has scope for improvement to make a gain in the future which in the case of Arriva is pretty much ideal, it currently makes a 6m profit with some new investment that could increase and if you really want to go there, there's scope for cuts which wouldn't dramatically impact the service (which I'd prefer not ofc). 43 to every 20 minutes for example. Similar story with Stagecoach where you could easily cut some services and there's scope for improvement. X63 to every 20 minutes for example.
GoNorthEast on the other hand doesn't really have much potential for cuts without damaging the services (it's pretty much a skeleton service as it is) and the core routes have new or refurbished buses on so there's no scope for improvement there. From an investors point of view it's not ideal and the newer buses will come with a price so it'll cost more to get it in the first place. 6m profit with potential (but needs investment soon) or 3.4m profit with little potential - only one is much attractive to an investor.
That's before you even bring in the discussion that Percy Main, Deptford, Peterlee and Washington (excluding the 20 and X1) are much weaker depots than any of the Arriva depots in the North East in terms of potential excluding maybe Jesmond.
(01 Oct 2020, 6:29 pm)Storx wrote [ -> ]The thing is though from a normal passenger that's what it looks like. The dangerous game your playing now is oh the bus doesn't run at nights well I'm not using the bus then screw that then the day time service suddenly makes a loss. That small loss you made for running 5 or 6 runs probably doesn't look so bad in the end. Oh and it was a comparison between Arriva and GNE, somehow Arriva can make the 51, 53 and 54 work in the evenings yet GNE can't. Greed or luck, I'll let you decide that one but the 42 and 53 are very similar routes and serve similar areas.
I agree with this and it's something I've said for a long time now; if the aim of the game is to encourage people to use your products, then you need to ensure that they're reasonably available at the times they are likely to be used. How many people would sign up to Broadband or an electricity provider that ceased to operate at 7pm on an evening? You just wouldn't, would you...
I do however understand the argument for operators not running services later into the evenings or Sundays when the usage is so low, but there's numerous factors at play there including Government policy. Someone quoted earlier in this thread that Arriva made £6m profit last year, which was seen as good, but if you divide that by the 363 operational days in a year, then its only £16k profit per day across the whole region - or £55 per day per bus, with the assumption that there's 300 buses out on the road on average. Very fine margins.
(02 Oct 2020, 11:07 pm)Bazza wrote [ -> ]You’re missing the point. Arriva seem to be an easy target on here. The negativity for them is astounding, only matched by the impression that GNE can do no wrong. I made a couple of points earlier on in this thread and was surprised nobody picked up on them. Either nobody disagreed with what I said or the points that I made were widely off the mark. Which was it?
As to the comments quoted above, where is the evidence that DB are sucking Arriva dry? If it’s your opinion, then say so, or provide the evidence, don’t just make a statement purporting it to be a fact.
I've seen some far-fetched statements on here over the years, but the suggestion that this forum operates on a 'GNE can do no wrong' basis is probably the best yet.
#MissingPurpleSolars anyone? or maybe the trials and tribulations of a commuter on Waggonway DAFs? There's been a few over the years!
Oh and the default position on any forum, is that the post is the opinion of the author. Most who are quoting fact will do so by citing sources of their information, whether that be articles, photos or whatever.
(06 Oct 2020, 10:51 am)Bazza wrote [ -> ]I’ll happily admit to it being complete speculation.
My post was more about getting some debate going rather than the usual slagging off of Arriva. You will see it’s more or less the same comment that was made further up the thread. No one bit on that comment, although there are a couple on here who have an opinion on everything. I also note that you managed to get in a dig at Arriva. The fact that at the moment GNE is able to provide these dupes because of an excess of drivers / buses due to a reduction in overall services . What happens when the need for dupes end? The buses maybe sold, what about the jobs?
its interesting to note that you have only replied to the coaching side of my post...
Surely it's a factual statement that some of Go North East's coaches are being allocated to scholars and/or scholars duplicates - mainly on behalf of Arriva - rather than being a dig?
Speculation of job losses is never a good thing, especially not at the moment. It's worth however pointing out that a service provision change (loss of contract) is one of the two reasons of when TUPE applies, so there is potential that employees could be transferred to whoever has won the contract, if the loss means that the employee(s) would be surplus to requirements. It's of course a different situation altogether if the contract no longer exists. Most employers will do what they can to minimise the impact. but certainly not a situation unique to transport operators. Its something that is lot more prevalent in huge outsourcing companies such as facilities management, cleaning, security, etc.
(24 Oct 2020, 11:02 am)NewcastleOne wrote [ -> ]Believe they were the final un-delivered batch for the 110 (Arriva Yorkshire)
So are Arriva running the 110 using a mixed fleet of StreetDecks & ADL E400 classics?
(24 Oct 2020, 1:48 pm)L469 YVK wrote [ -> ]So are Arriva running the 110 using a mixed fleet of StreetDecks & ADL E400 classics?
Unsure but these have been kept in Wrights since they went bust and then when they were ready Arriva cancelled them due to the pandemic. I presume they are.
(24 Oct 2020, 5:14 pm)NewcastleOne wrote [ -> ]Unsure but these have been kept in Wrights since they went bust and then when they were ready Arriva cancelled them due to the pandemic. I presume they are.
It goes to show the vulnerable state that Arriva is in if they're cancelling new vehicle orders. Newcastle CAZ has been postponed but by how much I don't know. Regardless, Arriva are going to have to upgrade their fleet eventually (not perhaps within the 18 months given the circumstances).
Can see a lot of service cuts to the services "that have been that way for 25 years" happening. A lot of streamlining & downsizing. In response to claims that ANE have made more profit than GNE, yes but at what expense? GNE have invested heavily over the years.
I can see Arriva broken and sold within the next few years as they don't have the capacity going forward. Ashington depot would thrive under GNE though if they got it. Big expansion of "X-Lines" and also a similar demographic to Consett & Stanley in the sense of the area being a "commuting" as well as ex mining.
(24 Oct 2020, 5:52 pm)L469 YVK wrote [ -> ]It goes to show the vulnerable state that Arriva is in if they're cancelling new vehicle orders. Newcastle CAZ has been postponed but by how much I don't know. Regardless, Arriva are going to have to upgrade their fleet eventually (not perhaps within the 18 months given the circumstances).
Can see a lot of service cuts to the services "that have been that way for 25 years" happening. A lot of streamlining & downsizing. In response to claims that ANE have made more profit than GNE, yes but at what expense? GNE have invested heavily over the years.
I can see Arriva broken and sold within the next few years as they don't have the capacity going forward. Ashington depot would thrive under GNE though if they got it. Big expansion of "X-Lines" and also a similar demographic to Consett & Stanley in the sense of the area being a "commuting" as well as ex mining.
It's not a 'claim' that Arriva North East make more profit than GNE it's a fact.
It's the only fact in the whole thing you've wrote there, the rest of it is assumptions at best. Also most of the buses in Northumbria which operate into Newcastle are Euro 6 already. Investments doesn't affect profits so that's irrelevant, if anything that should increase profits not vice versa since patronage should go up.
If your going to make claims such as, 'Arriva don't have the capacity going forward,' then you need to back it up with evidence which I must've missed somewhere. Cancelling an order of 7 buses isn't that. You don't tend to spend money during a pandemic when your profits are down when you don't need too it's just suicidal.
(24 Oct 2020, 11:26 pm)Storx wrote [ -> ]It's not a 'claim' that Arriva North East make more profit than GNE it's a fact.
It's the only fact in the whole thing you've wrote there, the rest of it is assumptions at best. Also most of the buses in Northumbria which operate into Newcastle are Euro 6 already. Investments doesn't affect profits so that's irrelevant, if anything that should increase profits not vice versa since patronage should go up.
If your going to make claims such as, 'Arriva don't have the capacity going forward,' then you need to back it up with evidence which I must've missed somewhere. Cancelling an order of 7 buses isn't that. You don't tend to spend money during a pandemic when your profits are down when you don't need too it's just suicidal.
You need to pay for the investments from your profits thou.
So, if you are not spending money and investing in new vehicles, then your profits will be higher as you have not got to pay for them?
(25 Oct 2020, 6:53 am)citaro5284 wrote [ -> ]You need to pay for the investments from your profits thou.
So, if you are not spending money and investing in new vehicles, then your profits will be higher as you have not got to pay for them?
It doesn't work like that. If you invest in something it's all done in the balance sheet site by increasing the long term assets but increasing the debt or lowering the short term assets ie cash to balance it out.
It only affects profits when the vehicles get depreciated which I guess will be done yearly probably over the length of there useful life (guessing 15 years) so even known Arriva's vehicles are 10 year old they'll still be affecting the profits to a similar level as a brand new bus that GNE has bought.
So if a vehicles cost £150,000 just to make it easy ever year for 15 year they'll be charging £10,000 to the profit and loss until it's wrote off. After 15 year then nothing gets charged. If you sell a vehicle for say £5000 which still has £20000 of value left because your selling it after 13 year then youll have a loss straight away of £15,000 to clear it off (the other £5,000) being cash in the balance sheet. Vice versa if you sold it after 15 year then you'll get a profit of £5,000 straight away.
It's hard to explain but I done accounting at uni
I have to say some people on here have right downer on arriva. Where i used to live i had no option but to use them and found i got an efficient service. I've now moved into GNE area and although the service is on equal terms at times missing buses, buses going past bus stops is something I never experience with arriva.
Also in My GNE area i hear about all these new buses with wifi, neon lights, 21 cctv cameras, charging points.... the last GNE bus i used to get home on had no of these and it had no heating either. !
Finally on GNE taking bit of ANE if it was sold.... I cant believe anyone would want a monopoly. even now its not great but imagine if GNE got north of tyne with only limit comp from Stagecoach. My mind boggles at the though!
(24 Oct 2020, 11:26 pm)Storx wrote [ -> ]If your going to make claims such as, 'Arriva don't have the capacity going forward,' then you need to back it up with evidence which I must've missed somewhere. Cancelling an order of 7 buses isn't that. You don't tend to spend money during a pandemic when your profits are down when you don't need too it's just suicidal.
But the point is that the order for the 110 was planned 'pre-pandemic and was only coincidentially delayed due to the troubles with WrightBus. As was GNE's but with a bit of shuffling around (premature frequency increase of X21 reversed), the Go-Ahead group took full delivery and GNE even benefited with good condition coaches for the X9 & X10.
(25 Oct 2020, 8:45 am)Rob44 wrote [ -> ]Finally on GNE taking bit of ANE if it was sold.... I cant believe anyone would want a monopoly. even now its not great but imagine if GNE got north of tyne with only limit comp from Stagecoach. My mind boggles at the though!
Wouldn't be the case at all considering Stagecoach's presence in Newcastle. Would likely go:
- Ashington > GNE
- Blyth > Stagecoach
- Jesmond > GNE then split with Riverside & Percy Main (potentially a new depot replacing Percy Main) with Jesmond closing.
(25 Oct 2020, 6:53 am)citaro5284 wrote [ -> ]You need to pay for the investments from your profits thou.
So, if you are not spending money and investing in new vehicles, then your profits will be higher as you have not got to pay for them?
It will get to a point though that Arriva will need to spend!
(25 Oct 2020, 8:49 am)L469 YVK wrote [ -> ]But the point is that the order for the 110 was planned 'pre-pandemic and was only coincidentially delayed due to the troubles with WrightBus. As was GNE's but with a bit of shuffling around (premature frequency increase of X21 reversed), the Go-Ahead group took full delivery and GNE even benefited with good condition coaches for the X9 & X10
That's still not a sign of a company going bust though? That's just a business making a decision not taking on a order during uncertain times. There could be other factors here such as the finance already being taken out so GNE already had the finances whereas Arriva hadn't. Your not going to get a very favourable loan for new vehicles in a middle of a pandemic regardless to how much profit you make / who you are.
Stagecoach cancelled their whole new order aswell and if you check both the Arriva and Stagecoach accounts which were prepared after C19 started they both have a section where they're confident that they will keep going as a going concern for the forseeable future (next 12 months).
Also don't forget the Streetdecks were ordered by Arriva in response a requirement for low emission buses in use in the area covered by the Leeds Clean Air Zone which had planned to be introduced in January 2020, but due to delays by the UK Government it was delayed until January 2021 at the earliest,.
In September 2019 Wrightbus went bust and so the last 7 Streetdecks were delayed, Arriva then decided that as the CAZ was delayed and there was a chance that the buses would not have a warranty, those last 7 were cancelled.
On 13/10/2020 the CAZ was cancelled as the reductions of traffic due to COVID had reduced emissions to below the levels that the CAZ was due to result in.