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+--- Thread: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions (/showthread.php?tid=784)
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 12:18 pm)CatsFast101 The 35 isn't consistent either! I've been on a 35 with two pensioners, 2 90p fares and two fare paying passengers (one been myself) from Board Inn-Hetton Interchange. I've also been a 35C from Shields to Sunderland that only had about 12 passengers on a sunny Sunday daytime at 3pm.
God knows what that says about the 20 then, if I'm told the Laser is more consistent than the Prince Bishops..............!
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Andreos1 - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 12:11 pm)Dan This shows consistency, Andreos?
I imagine if you tie those accounts in with my observations, aureolins observations and compare them with anecdotes from passengers on the 35's - you would end up with a similar consistency Dan
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 12:20 pm)Dan God knows what that says about the 20 then, if I'm told the Laser is more consistent than the Prince Bishops..............!
We'll carry on questioning the decision-making of GNE, though. Of course we know best.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Michael - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 12:14 pm)Dan W'hey! Why is it up to GNE? Because they have the official figures, and they can determine how much profit the services are making.
Wouldn't be a very good business case if we only considered two journeys on Tuesday and Thursday dinner times!
No shit...
That's why Cat'sfast is trying to say the number he see's on the 20/20A because he uses it most of the week but he said his own main journey times and their numbers.
I have no idea on Numbers for the 20/20A/35/35A as i rearely use them
I can how ever give u the numbers for stagecoach 5/5A/16,18/19/23 because their all run around my area - because i use them daily, but i won't bother.
How ever.... we do have think of competition... by end of the year stagecoach will have gas buses on the 13 and i would say Enviro's on the 12
Durham road will be all Enviro and gas buses to (3 (Gas),4,18/19 and the 23
GNE should think about this, what is better for them between the Board inn and park lane? - new buses or current ones?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 12:22 pm)Michael How ever.... we do have think of competition... by end of the year stagecoach will have gas buses on the 13 and i would say Enviro's on the 12
Durham road will be all Enviro and gas buses to (3 (Gas),4,18/19 and the 23
GNE should think about this, what is better for them between the Board inn and park lane? - new buses or current ones?
The cheapest and most frequent bus - most won't care whether the bus runs on gas or diesel.
Of course additional features such as Wi-Fi and power sockets are also attractive to customers and could potentially affect their decision.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Andreos1 - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 12:22 pm)Dan We'll carry on questioning the decision-making of GNE, though. Of course we know best.
It would be a boring world if we weren't allowed to question, discuss or debate!
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Michael - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 12:28 pm)Dan The cheapest and most frequent bus - most won't care whether the bus runs on gas or diesel.
Of course additional features such as Wi-Fi and power sockets are also attractive to customers and could potentially affect their decision.
exactly... will they get passengers with their "Wifi" and sockets or will they loose to their stupid zoning layout (that includes the price)... i know which one i would go for... GNE becuase of their sockets and WIFI.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Andreos1 - 04 Jan 2014
Taking all of the comments into account, I wonder what bearing the proposed changes in 2012 would have had on purchases?
I.e the 20 going to Shields and 35 terminating at Sunderland.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - CatsFast101 - 04 Jan 2014
As Andreos1 said, competition may be something which has impacted the decision, having double deckers and/or high spec buses with wifi etc. can all attack passengers.
35 has competition from Stagecoach E1/E2/E6 to South Shields, there's also completion with the 13 on the 35A to silksworth and also stagecoach services up to the hospital. Not competition around Houghton like.
However the 20 has little competition, maybe Durham road you could say it's up against the 4 but GNE have a few services that way anyways. And then nothing from Board inn till Gilesgate when the 64 then 22/24 into Durham.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 12:32 pm)Michael exactly... will they get passengers with their "Wifi" and sockets or will they loose to their stupid zoning layout (that includes the price)... i know which one i would go for... GNE becuase of their sockets and WIFI.
Didn't I mention the Crusader yesterday?
The Prince Bishops is very much like the Crusader in this instance, I feel. The service was upgraded from Cadets to B10BLEs to Citaros to (now possibly) double-decked vehicles. Immediately, the service has not justified investment. Despite this, it has always proven to be too good for the cascades it has received.
While there is a great deal of potential with the Prince Bishops, it does seem that there's something preventing investment. A re-brand has been chosen over cascades and investment once, and now it's rumoured cascades have been chosen over investment.
The Laser, on the other hand, is rumoured to be in line to receive double decked vehicles.
While I admit that competition will undoubtedly play a MINOR part in the decision making, it will not be the ultimate decider - the profit levels will. Because a service has little competition does not mean it is any less likely to receive investment though. I also admit that the cascades which will be allowed as a result of investment plays a part, but I do feel that this backs up my point more than the point of others - the Solars are expected to take a "back seat role" from this year, slowly displacing B10BLEs, Cadets and SPDs to withdrawn. Therefore, why would GNE resist a further 12 Solars coming out of front line service? Of course this can still happen if Citaros were to cascade to this service, but then you're 12 Citaros down... There could be other services which justify Citaros by that point.
From what little experience I've had on both services, passenger numbers are good on both - this, rather unfortunately, has been at peak times on both services, but has been travelling from Sunderland to Durham in most cases. I've always used it between Houghton and Sunderland because I want a quicker journey time, and for others this may be the case too - but who is to say that all of these passengers don't get off before Sunderland?
I monitored the passenger numbers a while ago for the Prince Bishops at Sunderland over the course of 30-40 minutes, and wasn't impressed. I have been told that the Laser appears to be more consistent than the Prince Bishops, and my observations would back this up (more so when you consider it's 3 OAPs to 1 normal full fare paying passenger). Tom's observations also back this up. CatsFast101's observations also back this up.
If the Prince Bishops is unable to receive investment this year, it will come in the near future. It is a good service, but there's something (which none of us know, apart from GNE management) preventing the service from receiving investment presently. I have no doubt that the Prince Bishops brand will be fairly inexpensive (rather like the Crusader) if it seems that the service is likely to undergo investment the next year, or the year after.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Michael - 04 Jan 2014
I'm really the surprised the 27 has being considered for new buses already, its only just being upgraded, i'm sure a different service could benefit from new buses.
I agree if the 20/20A doesn't get new buses this year it might be the year after.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Andreos1 - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 12:46 pm)Dan Didn't I mention the Crusader yesterday?
The Prince Bishops is very much like the Crusader in this instance, I feel. The service was upgraded from Cadets to B10BLEs to Citaros to (now possibly) double-decked vehicles. Immediately, the service has not justified investment. Despite this, it has always proven to be too good for the cascades it has received.
While there is a great deal of potential with the Prince Bishops, it does seem that there's something preventing investment. A re-brand has been chosen over cascades and investment once, and now it's rumoured cascades have been chosen over investment.
The Laser, on the other hand, is rumoured to be in line to receive double decked vehicles.
While I admit that competition will undoubtedly play a MINOR part in the decision making, it will not be the ultimate decider - the profit levels will. Because a service has little competition does not mean it is any less likely to receive investment though. I also admit that the cascades which will be allowed as a result of investment plays a part, but I do feel that this backs up my point more than the point of others - the Solars are expected to take a "back seat role" from this year, slowly displacing B10BLEs, Cadets and SPDs to withdrawn. Therefore, why would GNE resist a further 12 Solars coming out of front line service? Of course this can still happen if Citaros were to cascade to this service, but then you're 12 Citaros down... There could be other services which justify Citaros by that point.
From what little experience I've had on both services, passenger numbers are good on both - this, rather unfortunately, has been at peak times on both services, but has been travelling from Sunderland to Durham in most cases. I've always used it between Houghton and Sunderland because I want a quicker journey time, and for others this may be the case too - but who is to say that all of these passengers don't get off before Sunderland?
I monitored the passenger numbers a while ago for the Prince Bishops at Sunderland over the course of 30-40 minutes, and wasn't impressed. I have been told that the Laser appears to be more consistent than the Prince Bishops, and my observations would back this up (more so when you consider it's 3 OAPs to 1 normal full fare paying passenger). Tom's observations also back this up. CatsFast101's observations also back this up.
If the Prince Bishops is unable to receive investment this year, it will come in the near future. It is a good service, but there's something (which none of us know, apart from GNE management) preventing the service from receiving investment presently. I have no doubt that the Prince Bishops brand will be fairly inexpensive (rather like the Crusader) if it seems that the service is likely to undergo investment the next year, or the year after.
Is the upgrade to 35 a speculate to accumulate move then?
If you analyse the upgrades to the 27, you can see similarities between the two.
Apart from the comments from myself, Tom, aureloin and catsfast which have all confirmed regular full loads - the problems the Scanias have had, in my mind would have justified replacements.
If the poor loads are common, then the service cannot justify a 10min frequency.
The only negative to the 20's I see to the 35's are the loads it picks up between Park Lane and Board Inn.
The 20 is more or less an express at times and rarely picks up/drops off along Durham Road.
The 35s appear to be much more of a local service due to the deviations it takes.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Andreos1 - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 12:41 pm)CatsFast101 As Andreos1 said, competition may be something which has impacted the decision, having double deckers and/or high spec buses with wifi etc. can all attack passengers.
35 has competition from Stagecoach E1/E2/E6 to South Shields, there's also completion with the 13 on the 35A to silksworth and also stagecoach services up to the hospital. Not competition around Houghton like.
However the 20 has little competition, maybe Durham road you could say it's up against the 4 but GNE have a few services that way anyways. And then nothing from Board inn till Gilesgate when the 64 then 22/24 into Durham.
People have no choice but to use the 20 in a number of locations - whether it is an old bus or not.
The people of Silksworth etc do have a choice and can be swayed by wifi.
Michael has already said he would use it given the choice.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 1:19 pm)andreos1 People have no choice but to use the 20 in a number of locations - whether it is an old bus or not.
The people of Silksworth etc do have a choice and can be swayed by wifi.
Michael has already said he would use it given the choice.
Like I've said - if the Prince Bishops is massively profitable, why isn't it planned (according to our current list of 80 vehicles) to receive investment this year, considering there is a small amount of competition (which we've established is a small factor which will play a part in service investment)?
Custom is custom at the end of the day, and if GNE were to steal the passengers from the competition, maybe there wouldn't be runs which are only carrying minimal passenger numbers... On the flip side of the coin, why would you actually invest in a service which isn't stable and does sometimes only carry minimal passenger numbers?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Andreos1 - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 1:28 pm)Dan Like I've said - if the Prince Bishops is massively profitable, why isn't it planned (according to our current list of 80 vehicles) to receive investment this year, considering there is a small amount of competition (which we've established is a small factor which will play a part in service investment)?
Custom is custom at the end of the day, and if GNE were to steal the passengers from the competition, maybe there wouldn't be runs which are only carrying minimal passenger numbers... On the flip side of the coin, why would you actually invest in a service which isn't stable and does sometimes only carry minimal passenger numbers?
Like the 35's do at times?
The 35 faces competiton between Sunderland & Shields (look at the lucrative fares on offer), Royal Hospital to Sunderland and Board Inn via Silksworth to Sunderland - quite a big difference compared to the 20 (Gilesgate Moor to North Road).
You keep asking, but I have lost count how many times I have put forward suggestions as to why it isn't receiving an upgrade to be fair.
As I have said already, if the low loads which you have seen are so common, why not reduce the frequency?
We are talking about GNE here. If they see a route which isn't making enough of a profit - they adapt it, reduce frequencies and eventually axe it...
The 20 has been in its current guise for 20 odd years, with slight changes such as the x20 and 20a (which is now over a year old and seemingly doing very well).
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 1:44 pm)andreos1 Like the 35's do at times?
Yawn... Officially, I am led to believe that the Laser network is more consistent than the Prince Bishops.
(04 Jan 2014, 1:44 pm)andreos1 The 35 faces competiton between Sunderland & Shields (look at the lucrative fares on offer), Royal Hospital to Sunderland and Board Inn via Silksworth to Sunderland - quite a big difference compared to the 20 (Gilesgate Moor to North Road).
That's great. As I keep repeating, competition only plays a small part in the decision making - not huge as you seem to think.
(04 Jan 2014, 1:44 pm)andreos1 You keep asking, but I have lost count how many times I have put forward suggestions as to why it isn't receiving an upgrade to be fair.
I've lost count how many times I've responded to those, disagreed in some cases, and you haven't come up with a better suggestion.
Jesus, this debate is dire - how did eezypeazy cope when he did this day in, day out?
(04 Jan 2014, 1:44 pm)andreos1 As I have said already, if the low loads which you have seen are so common, why not reduce the frequency?
We are talking about GNE here. If they see a route which isn't making enough of a profit - they adapt it, reduce frequencies and eventually axe it...
The 20 has been in its current guise for 20 odd years, with slight changes such as the x20 and 20a (which is now over a year old and seemingly doing very well).
That, I'm unsure... Perhaps it's due to the fact that the low loadings are so unpredictable. Some are running with four passengers (as Liam has just said above), others are running with twelve passengers, others are running jam packed... If this is as inconsistent as I have suggested, then GNE can't really axe it - can they?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - CatsFast101 - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 1:47 pm)Liam 4 people on the Bishop which left Park Lane 5 mins ago... Investment worthy.
How ridiculous! I've seen X1's leave Houghton with about the same 4 passengers. Every service has good and bad days. I've been on 60's that was an MPD with just 3 people doesn't mean it's not investment worthy doesn't it? Likely the previous service has ran late.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Andreos1 - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 1:50 pm)Dan Yawn... Officially, I am led to believe that the Laser network is more consistent than the Prince Bishops.
That's great. As I keep repeating, competition only plays a small part in the decision making - not huge as you seem to think.
I've lost count how many times I've responded to those, disagreed in some cases, and you haven't come up with a better suggestion.
Jesus, this debate is dire - how did eezypeazy cope when he did this day in, day out?
That, I'm unsure... Perhaps it's due to the fact that the low loadings are so unpredictable. Some are running with four passengers (as Liam has just said above), others are running with twelve passengers, others are running jam packed... If this is as inconsistent as I have suggested, then GNE can't really axe it - can they?
All I am doing is putting my observations, views across and having a discussion with you.
If you don't like me having an opinion or you don't like me having an opinion that is different to yours, so be it.
Tell you what, forget everything myself and others see, witness and come across on a daily basis and we will all agree with you eh?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Andreos1 - 04 Jan 2014
(04 Jan 2014, 1:47 pm)Liam 4 people on the Bishop which left Park Lane 5 mins ago... Investment worthy.
None on the 35a and 23 (inc myself) on a 20 which left Houghton a few mins ago.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - CatsFast101 - 04 Jan 2014
Andreos has made some good points regarding the 20 however as I've said above Dan you just seem to think its your opinion or the wrong opinion. Why does andreos have to think of a better argument and you don't? The 20 loadings aren't that unstable, every service can have low journeys at some points.