Politics (and other political stuff)
Politics (and other political stuff)
(08 May 2021, 10:22 pm)Adrian Its quite easy to play the blame game with Corbyn, but the Labour results since 1997 follow a downward trend. 2017 was the exception, where the Party gained a vote share similar to that which resulted in a comfortable majority in 2001.Where Tony Blair did Labour a dis-service was that, although he said he would never be complacent, in practice he assumed safe Labour areas were already won and all he had to do was appeal to his target areas, mainly then Tory marginals. This started to show during his 1st term with low turnouts in the European elections of 1999 and Tottenham by-election of 2000. His belief that Labour voters in apparently safe Labour areas had nowhere else to go bred a lot of voter apathy and disillusion. So much so, that in his 2001 landslide Labour got fewer votes than in 1992 when Neil Kinnock did not win for Labour. Furthermore, in marginal seats they often got more votes than in "safe" Labour seats. So for example they got more votes in Harrow seats than Liverpool ones.
To blame the 'very left' of the Labour Party is quite naïve. Labour started to lose the Midlands, Wales, Scotland and the North East again from 2005. Further losses in 2010, followed by 40 seats lost in Scotland in 2015 (thanks largely to the decision to side with the Tories in the indyref vote), although others picked up due to the Liberal Democrat vote collapsing.
In the North East in particular, and in working class people’s minds, Labour is associated with either facilitating it or not fighting the deindustrialisation and almost abandonment of the region. Its why Ben Houchen for example has faired so well in the Tees Valley; because people feel that he is delivering things that they want and that they deserve. Labour had the opportunity to do that since 1997, but largely failed to deliver. It's also why the Labour Party's opposition to (or stance on) Brexit was disastrous, with the 2019 results reflecting that. People felt that something they wanted (and needed) was being taken away against their will.
(08 May 2021, 10:28 pm)Adrian Though they have lost control of Durham County Council.Yes, County Durham has been a high-profile loss, being the first time since 1925. Mind you, Labour had more of a drubbing than average in the area in 2019, where they lost Durham North West, Sedgefield and Bishop Auckland. Labour also lost Darlington in 2019, which admittedly is now a Unitary authority so not part of Durham County Council.
53 LAB, 23 CON, 17 LD, 5 DI, 23 IND, 1 GRN, 4 NEP, with 64 required for a majority.
So you're looking at either:
a) LAB/LD majority of 7 (potentially 8 with the Green)
b) CON/LD/IND/DI majority of 5
c) CON/LD/IND/DI/NEP majority of 9
It's going to be an interesting couple of days, as the 'independents' are an extremely diverse range of councillors. You might end up with something like a CON/LD/DI minority including a couple of the independents, but also with a confidence and supply arrangement with the others.
Another big question for Durham is the new County Hall HQ development in Durham City. All previous opposition parties were vehemently opposed to the redevelopment and move 'in the current climate'. Its already well under construction, but I think their electorate would expect them to pull the plug on it now and lease the building to a 3rd Party instead.
(08 May 2021, 10:22 pm)Adrian Its quite easy to play the blame game with Corbyn, but the Labour results since 1997 follow a downward trend. 2017 was the exception, where the Party gained a vote share similar to that which resulted in a comfortable majority in 2001.Where Tony Blair did Labour a dis-service was that, although he said he would never be complacent, in practice he assumed safe Labour areas were already won and all he had to do was appeal to his target areas, mainly then Tory marginals. This started to show during his 1st term with low turnouts in the European elections of 1999 and Tottenham by-election of 2000. His belief that Labour voters in apparently safe Labour areas had nowhere else to go bred a lot of voter apathy and disillusion. So much so, that in his 2001 landslide Labour got fewer votes than in 1992 when Neil Kinnock did not win for Labour. Furthermore, in marginal seats they often got more votes than in "safe" Labour seats. So for example they got more votes in Harrow seats than Liverpool ones.
To blame the 'very left' of the Labour Party is quite naïve. Labour started to lose the Midlands, Wales, Scotland and the North East again from 2005. Further losses in 2010, followed by 40 seats lost in Scotland in 2015 (thanks largely to the decision to side with the Tories in the indyref vote), although others picked up due to the Liberal Democrat vote collapsing.
In the North East in particular, and in working class people’s minds, Labour is associated with either facilitating it or not fighting the deindustrialisation and almost abandonment of the region. Its why Ben Houchen for example has faired so well in the Tees Valley; because people feel that he is delivering things that they want and that they deserve. Labour had the opportunity to do that since 1997, but largely failed to deliver. It's also why the Labour Party's opposition to (or stance on) Brexit was disastrous, with the 2019 results reflecting that. People felt that something they wanted (and needed) was being taken away against their will.
(08 May 2021, 10:28 pm)Adrian Though they have lost control of Durham County Council.Yes, County Durham has been a high-profile loss, being the first time since 1925. Mind you, Labour had more of a drubbing than average in the area in 2019, where they lost Durham North West, Sedgefield and Bishop Auckland. Labour also lost Darlington in 2019, which admittedly is now a Unitary authority so not part of Durham County Council.
53 LAB, 23 CON, 17 LD, 5 DI, 23 IND, 1 GRN, 4 NEP, with 64 required for a majority.
So you're looking at either:
a) LAB/LD majority of 7 (potentially 8 with the Green)
b) CON/LD/IND/DI majority of 5
c) CON/LD/IND/DI/NEP majority of 9
It's going to be an interesting couple of days, as the 'independents' are an extremely diverse range of councillors. You might end up with something like a CON/LD/DI minority including a couple of the independents, but also with a confidence and supply arrangement with the others.
Another big question for Durham is the new County Hall HQ development in Durham City. All previous opposition parties were vehemently opposed to the redevelopment and move 'in the current climate'. Its already well under construction, but I think their electorate would expect them to pull the plug on it now and lease the building to a 3rd Party instead.
