20 Jun 2018, 9:37 pm
#370
(19 Jun 2018, 6:33 pm)Andreos1 I think the Whitby/Scarborough - Teesside corridor is pretty much boxed off now the X4 and X93 appear sorted.
Not sure there is enough demand all year round or enough interest to offer any competition.
I have to admit, when the EYMS announcement was made, I thought competition on the X93 would be first choice, however on reflection I think GNE bosses may have a good think about it before committing (if it was on the agenda to begin with). My thoughts behind this are presumably the kind of points that would be discussed;
- The X93, over recent years has improved significantly. Journeys tend to be reliable compared to 4 or 5 years ago (as well as they can be for a long distance service) and the kit that tends to run is up to the job. Its not a simple case of providing the basics to gain abstraction due to poor customer confidence.
- Barring the main summer, in which Arriva have just implemented a 20 minute frequency on the X93, there isnt much to pinch from off peak (perhaps summer only competition?).
- GNE Management will remember the OK1 and the retaliation that Arriva swept into almost immediately when that came on stream - eventually suffocating it by means of timetable changes and introduction of the X1. I would not expect Arriva to sit tight and do nothing if EYMS/GNE simply compete like for like on the X93. Whilst obvious passenger benefit would be great, lets not forget these are businesses and their high earners are the ones they will push hard to protect. X93 almost certainly is one of them for Arriva I suspect.
- Arriva are generally not known for pulling the first punch in situations where competition exists or is created - most of the time it intiailly instigates from another bus operator and Arriva tend to be the ones to react, but I think competition with the X93/X4 services would provoke more than a like for like response (perhaps retaliation by means of a direct Teesside to Newcastle non-stop to cream off the X9/X10 or even more X12 up Durham Road for example).
It will be interesting to see what does happen of course, but im not sure GNE bosses will be unlikely to be up for a competitive fight straight away - if at all.
