Go North East - Future Order Predictions
Go North East - Future Order Predictions
Well, rather than posting on the New StreetDeck / ADL E400MMC forum to keep topics relevant, I thought that I'd post my guess on here. Given the lockdown etc and the likely cost savings that will need to be made moving forward, if economic "green shoots" of recovery appear and allow Go North East to further invest in services and new vehicles, I'd predict that something akin to the following could happen but perhaps around 2022.............
New Order Option 1
(14 Aug 2020, 6:02 pm)L469 YVK Well, rather than posting on the New StreetDeck / ADL E400MMC forum to keep topics relevant, I thought that I'd post my guess on here. Given the lockdown etc and the likely cost savings that will need to be made moving forward, if economic "green shoots" of recovery appear and allow Go North East to further invest in services and new vehicles, I'd predict that something akin to the following could happen but perhaps around 2022.............
New Order Option 1
The above would then mean:
- 15x ADL E400MMC or Wright StreetDeck OM936 to Washington for X-Lines X1 -- Was originally intended to receive a "heavier" vehicle type this year but forefitted due to X30 interworking pattern requirements for low height deckers.
- 17x Wright StreetDeck OM934 for Cobalt & Coast 309/310/311 - Includes 1x spare.
New Order Option 2
- 14x Wright StreetDecks (OM934) transferred from Washington to Deptford and allocated to Service 56.
- 1x Wright StreetDeck (OM934) transferred from Washington to Percy Main as additional Cobalt & Coast spare alongside new example.
- Ex Cobalt & Coast B9TLs partially repainted (Blues to Greens) with new TVT brand but silver base. These then upgrade the Tyne Valley Ten and have already been refurbished.
- Ex 56 B9TLs either refurbished and or deep cleaned. These are then transferred to Percy Main for the Coaster.
- Ex Coaster B5LHs & Ex TVT/TTX B9TLs then either cascaded elsewhere within Go North East or another Go-Ahead subsidiary.
Then same cascades as option 1 (minus X1 as that route would be unchanged under option 2).
- 18x Wright StreetDeck OM934 for Cobalt & Coast 309/310/311 - Includes 2x spares
- 14x Wright StreetDeck OM934 for service 56 - Includes 2x spares
(14 Aug 2020, 6:02 pm)L469 YVK Well, rather than posting on the New StreetDeck / ADL E400MMC forum to keep topics relevant, I thought that I'd post my guess on here. Given the lockdown etc and the likely cost savings that will need to be made moving forward, if economic "green shoots" of recovery appear and allow Go North East to further invest in services and new vehicles, I'd predict that something akin to the following could happen but perhaps around 2022.............
New Order Option 1
The above would then mean:
- 15x ADL E400MMC or Wright StreetDeck OM936 to Washington for X-Lines X1 -- Was originally intended to receive a "heavier" vehicle type this year but forefitted due to X30 interworking pattern requirements for low height deckers.
- 17x Wright StreetDeck OM934 for Cobalt & Coast 309/310/311 - Includes 1x spare.
New Order Option 2
- 14x Wright StreetDecks (OM934) transferred from Washington to Deptford and allocated to Service 56.
- 1x Wright StreetDeck (OM934) transferred from Washington to Percy Main as additional Cobalt & Coast spare alongside new example.
- Ex Cobalt & Coast B9TLs partially repainted (Blues to Greens) with new TVT brand but silver base. These then upgrade the Tyne Valley Ten and have already been refurbished.
- Ex 56 B9TLs either refurbished and or deep cleaned. These are then transferred to Percy Main for the Coaster.
- Ex Coaster B5LHs & Ex TVT/TTX B9TLs then either cascaded elsewhere within Go North East or another Go-Ahead subsidiary.
Then same cascades as option 1 (minus X1 as that route would be unchanged under option 2).
- 18x Wright StreetDeck OM934 for Cobalt & Coast 309/310/311 - Includes 2x spares
- 14x Wright StreetDeck OM934 for service 56 - Includes 2x spares
I really can't see any new deckers for a while personally. The minibus fleet is aging badly and will need replacing by 2022 and there's also the Omnicities, Citaros and early Versas all due or starting to be due by then. Realistically no deckers really need to be replaced before 2026 now which are in frontline work.
I agree with Storx, apart from 11 E200 MMCs, we're getting 36 - 37 brand new double deckers, so after all of them are delivered, there's really no need for any more double deckers. I can see some more full size single deckers in the future, most likely Enviros for service 4 or even for X20 with 672 - 678 transferred back to Percy Main for Little Coasters routes.
Given the financial situation, I would prefer if some of the buses were just refurbished, similar to what they've just done to the Venture brand i.e new livery, cab door and cove panel information. It's badly needed on the Streetlites with those large and bare cove panels. It would really brighten them up and is much cheaper than buying new buses. Maybe some of the older Streetlites/ Versa's may recieve a full refurb with USB etc. but I really don't think GNE will be splashing the cash on new buses for a while now.
(14 Aug 2020, 9:07 pm)Storx I really can't see any new deckers for a while personally. The minibus fleet is aging badly and will need replacing by 2022 and there's also the Omnicities, Citaros and early Versas all due or starting to be due by then. Realistically no deckers really need to be replaced before 2026 now which are in frontline work.
(14 Aug 2020, 9:40 pm)Adtrainsam I agree with Storx, apart from 11 E200 MMCs, we're getting 36 - 37 brand new double deckers, so after all of them are delivered, there's really no need for any more double deckers. I can see some more full size single deckers in the future, most likely Enviros for service 4 or even for X20 with 672 - 678 transferred back to Percy Main for Little Coasters routes.
Given the financial situation, I would prefer if some of the buses were just refurbished, similar to what they've just done to the Venture brand i.e new livery, cab door and cove panel information. It's badly needed on the Streetlites with those large and bare cove panels. It would really brighten them up and is much cheaper than buying new buses. Maybe some of the older Streetlites/ Versa's may recieve a full refurb with USB etc. but I really don't think GNE will be splashing the cash on new buses for a while now.
(14 Aug 2020, 9:07 pm)Storx I really can't see any new deckers for a while personally. The minibus fleet is aging badly and will need replacing by 2022 and there's also the Omnicities, Citaros and early Versas all due or starting to be due by then. Realistically no deckers really need to be replaced before 2026 now which are in frontline work.
(14 Aug 2020, 9:40 pm)Adtrainsam I agree with Storx, apart from 11 E200 MMCs, we're getting 36 - 37 brand new double deckers, so after all of them are delivered, there's really no need for any more double deckers. I can see some more full size single deckers in the future, most likely Enviros for service 4 or even for X20 with 672 - 678 transferred back to Percy Main for Little Coasters routes.
Given the financial situation, I would prefer if some of the buses were just refurbished, similar to what they've just done to the Venture brand i.e new livery, cab door and cove panel information. It's badly needed on the Streetlites with those large and bare cove panels. It would really brighten them up and is much cheaper than buying new buses. Maybe some of the older Streetlites/ Versa's may recieve a full refurb with USB etc. but I really don't think GNE will be splashing the cash on new buses for a while now.
(14 Aug 2020, 9:40 pm)Adtrainsam I agree with Storx, apart from 11 E200 MMCs, we're getting 36 - 37 brand new double deckers, so after all of them are delivered, there's really no need for any more double deckers. I can see some more full size single deckers in the future, most likely Enviros for service 4 or even for X20 with 672 - 678 transferred back to Percy Main for Little Coasters routes.
Given the financial situation, I would prefer if some of the buses were just refurbished, similar to what they've just done to the Venture brand i.e new livery, cab door and cove panel information. It's badly needed on the Streetlites with those large and bare cove panels. It would really brighten them up and is much cheaper than buying new buses. Maybe some of the older Streetlites/ Versa's may recieve a full refurb with USB etc. but I really don't think GNE will be splashing the cash on new buses for a while now.
streetdeckfan I can't really see them replacing the minibuses any time soon, even the oldest one is only 11 years old. If they were, the only ones I could see them replacing are the older style Solos, and there's only a few of them
(14 Aug 2020, 9:40 pm)Adtrainsam I agree with Storx, apart from 11 E200 MMCs, we're getting 36 - 37 brand new double deckers, so after all of them are delivered, there's really no need for any more double deckers. I can see some more full size single deckers in the future, most likely Enviros for service 4 or even for X20 with 672 - 678 transferred back to Percy Main for Little Coasters routes.
Given the financial situation, I would prefer if some of the buses were just refurbished, similar to what they've just done to the Venture brand i.e new livery, cab door and cove panel information. It's badly needed on the Streetlites with those large and bare cove panels. It would really brighten them up and is much cheaper than buying new buses. Maybe some of the older Streetlites/ Versa's may recieve a full refurb with USB etc. but I really don't think GNE will be splashing the cash on new buses for a while now.
streetdeckfan I can't really see them replacing the minibuses any time soon, even the oldest one is only 11 years old. If they were, the only ones I could see them replacing are the older style Solos, and there's only a few of them
(14 Aug 2020, 9:58 pm)Storx If I'm right minibuses traditionally only have a depreciation and life expectancy of 12 years, it could even be 10 - I'm not 100% sure on that but it's definitely not 15.
Mini - 10 Year or 12 Year
Midi - 12 Year
Fullsize / Decker - 15 Year
I believe anyway.
(14 Aug 2020, 9:58 pm)Storx If I'm right minibuses traditionally only have a depreciation and life expectancy of 12 years, it could even be 10 - I'm not 100% sure on that but it's definitely not 15.
Mini - 10 Year or 12 Year
Midi - 12 Year
Fullsize / Decker - 15 Year
I believe anyway.
(14 Aug 2020, 10:06 pm)streetdeckfan I think it's 12 years, but I can see them keeping the Solo SRs a bit longer than that, probably up to the 15 year mark, hopefully by then Optare may have a new model out so it wouldn't just be a like for like replacement.
I suppose they could replace them with Streetlite Wheel Forwards, but I can't see that happening
(14 Aug 2020, 10:06 pm)streetdeckfan I think it's 12 years, but I can see them keeping the Solo SRs a bit longer than that, probably up to the 15 year mark, hopefully by then Optare may have a new model out so it wouldn't just be a like for like replacement.
I suppose they could replace them with Streetlite Wheel Forwards, but I can't see that happening
(14 Aug 2020, 10:19 pm)Storx There's the short Enviro 200 MMC which they could possibly get either which was the replacement for the MPD. Would be ideal for the X-Lines X6 / X7 / X20 or even the 19 which is still a mixture of Omnicities and Solos.
I know they've been trialed on the 19 before in the past - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wsw6oODaGHQ.
(14 Aug 2020, 10:19 pm)Storx There's the short Enviro 200 MMC which they could possibly get either which was the replacement for the MPD. Would be ideal for the X-Lines X6 / X7 / X20 or even the 19 which is still a mixture of Omnicities and Solos.
I know they've been trialed on the 19 before in the past - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wsw6oODaGHQ.
(14 Aug 2020, 10:28 pm)streetdeckfan Is there any reason why the X20 needs a small vehicle like the Solo? Didn't they operate with L94s in the past?
(14 Aug 2020, 10:28 pm)streetdeckfan Is there any reason why the X20 needs a small vehicle like the Solo? Didn't they operate with L94s in the past?
(14 Aug 2020, 10:38 pm)Storx Not too sure, just not the numbers I guess hence why it got axed the first time around. The fact it was with a capacity of 7 during Covid and also had the Langley Park section bolted on probably says it's not doing too well nowadays neither.
Could always go for a mid length Enviro MMC 200 though ie. 9.7m or 10.4m if you wanted a slightly bigger bus.
It was L94's though
(14 Aug 2020, 10:38 pm)Storx Not too sure, just not the numbers I guess hence why it got axed the first time around. The fact it was with a capacity of 7 during Covid and also had the Langley Park section bolted on probably says it's not doing too well nowadays neither.
Could always go for a mid length Enviro MMC 200 though ie. 9.7m or 10.4m if you wanted a slightly bigger bus.
It was L94's though
Enthusiast hat off....
If history tells us anything, especially if we look back to the last financial crisis you tend to reinvest in more profitable routes. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see new stock on the 21 etc and the cascades onto other routes as opposed to investing in new buses for routes that don’t turn a huge profit and aren’t likely to see a growth in an economic slowdown.
(14 Aug 2020, 11:03 pm)streetdeckfan For a lot of routes, it's not the length that's the issue, it's the width. And that's one area where the Solo excels.
I might be wrong in thinking this, but I believe because the Solos are wheel forward, it means they can get round tighter bends than a door forward vehicle of the same length.
(14 Aug 2020, 11:03 pm)streetdeckfan For a lot of routes, it's not the length that's the issue, it's the width. And that's one area where the Solo excels.
I might be wrong in thinking this, but I believe because the Solos are wheel forward, it means they can get round tighter bends than a door forward vehicle of the same length.
(14 Aug 2020, 11:35 pm)Ambassador Enthusiast hat off....
If history tells us anything, especially if we look back to the last financial crisis you tend to reinvest in more profitable routes. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see new stock on the 21 etc and the cascades onto other routes as opposed to investing in new buses for routes that don’t turn a huge profit and aren’t likely to see a growth in an economic slowdown.
(14 Aug 2020, 11:35 pm)Ambassador Enthusiast hat off....
If history tells us anything, especially if we look back to the last financial crisis you tend to reinvest in more profitable routes. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see new stock on the 21 etc and the cascades onto other routes as opposed to investing in new buses for routes that don’t turn a huge profit and aren’t likely to see a growth in an economic slowdown.
(14 Aug 2020, 11:39 pm)streetdeckfan 21 won't get an upgrade for quite a while yet, I reckon it'll be another 5 years at least before they get touched.
How profitable are the 10s? They seemed to have good passenger numbers pre-covid so I'd imagine they were doing well. Same with the 56.
(14 Aug 2020, 11:39 pm)streetdeckfan 21 won't get an upgrade for quite a while yet, I reckon it'll be another 5 years at least before they get touched.
How profitable are the 10s? They seemed to have good passenger numbers pre-covid so I'd imagine they were doing well. Same with the 56.
(14 Aug 2020, 11:35 pm)Ambassador Enthusiast hat off....
If history tells us anything, especially if we look back to the last financial crisis you tend to reinvest in more profitable routes. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see new stock on the 21 etc and the cascades onto other routes as opposed to investing in new buses for routes that don’t turn a huge profit and aren’t likely to see a growth in an economic slowdown.
(14 Aug 2020, 11:35 pm)Ambassador Enthusiast hat off....
If history tells us anything, especially if we look back to the last financial crisis you tend to reinvest in more profitable routes. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see new stock on the 21 etc and the cascades onto other routes as opposed to investing in new buses for routes that don’t turn a huge profit and aren’t likely to see a growth in an economic slowdown.
(14 Aug 2020, 10:38 pm)Storx Not too sure, just not the numbers I guess hence why it got axed the first time around. The fact it was with a capacity of 7 during Covid and also had the Langley Park section bolted on probably says it's not doing too well nowadays neither.Langley park section has gone from 60 mins (when it was the 14), to 30 mins albeit with smaller capacity solos. X20 used to be run by crook with the old pronto B7s, was rather busy but got chopped in favour of additional X21.
Could always go for a mid length Enviro MMC 200 though ie. 9.7m or 10.4m if you wanted a slightly bigger bus.
It was L94's though
(14 Aug 2020, 10:38 pm)Storx Not too sure, just not the numbers I guess hence why it got axed the first time around. The fact it was with a capacity of 7 during Covid and also had the Langley Park section bolted on probably says it's not doing too well nowadays neither.Langley park section has gone from 60 mins (when it was the 14), to 30 mins albeit with smaller capacity solos. X20 used to be run by crook with the old pronto B7s, was rather busy but got chopped in favour of additional X21.
Could always go for a mid length Enviro MMC 200 though ie. 9.7m or 10.4m if you wanted a slightly bigger bus.
It was L94's though
I really cant see all the citaros being withdrawn by the end of the year, excluding the 63 plates which are on the 4, there is 62 citaros to replace, that would either mean vehicles from elsewhere in the Go Ahead group being sourced and brought in to replace or brand new buses being ordered, i cant see 62 new buses being ordered at this time so the citaros could be around a bit longer, i think we will definitely see only single decks being ordered for the next few intakes and if newer deckers are required i feel these would be sourced from elsewhere and refurbished if needed, we know the 26/27 citaros are being replaced by deckers but there is a lot of other routes run with citaros (57,X84,9,35,55,61 to name some) and will need replacements in the next couple of years
(15 Aug 2020, 5:24 am)Stanleyone Langley park section has gone from 60 mins (when it was the 14), to 30 mins albeit with smaller capacity solos. X20 used to be run by crook with the old pronto B7s, was rather busy but got chopped in favour of additional X21.
(15 Aug 2020, 8:53 am)N1cholas I really cant see all the citaros being withdrawn by the end of the year, excluding the 63 plates which are on the 4, there is 62 citaros to replace, that would either mean vehicles from elsewhere in the Go Ahead group being sourced and brought in to replace or brand new buses being ordered, i cant see 62 new buses being ordered at this time so the citaros could be around a bit longer, i think we will definitely see only single decks being ordered for the next few intakes and if newer deckers are required i feel these would be sourced from elsewhere and refurbished if needed, we know the 26/27 citaros are being replaced by deckers but there is a lot of other routes run with citaros (57,X84,9,35,55,61 to name some) and will need replacements in the next couple of years
(15 Aug 2020, 5:24 am)Stanleyone Langley park section has gone from 60 mins (when it was the 14), to 30 mins albeit with smaller capacity solos. X20 used to be run by crook with the old pronto B7s, was rather busy but got chopped in favour of additional X21.
(15 Aug 2020, 8:53 am)N1cholas I really cant see all the citaros being withdrawn by the end of the year, excluding the 63 plates which are on the 4, there is 62 citaros to replace, that would either mean vehicles from elsewhere in the Go Ahead group being sourced and brought in to replace or brand new buses being ordered, i cant see 62 new buses being ordered at this time so the citaros could be around a bit longer, i think we will definitely see only single decks being ordered for the next few intakes and if newer deckers are required i feel these would be sourced from elsewhere and refurbished if needed, we know the 26/27 citaros are being replaced by deckers but there is a lot of other routes run with citaros (57,X84,9,35,55,61 to name some) and will need replacements in the next couple of years
(15 Aug 2020, 10:40 am)Storx At the cost of the 13 going hourly instead though, quite a large capacity decrease from Langley Park really, 3 full size singles (quite often deckers) to 1 full size single (sometimes a decker) and 2 minibuses an hour but Langley Park probably doesn't need 3 full size buses to Durham; Sacriston, Plawsworth and Witton Gilbert have their own routes (X5/X15 - 16 - 21/X21/50).Believe the plan was to remove all 07 bluestar citaros and the 06 plates. However with 53 vehicles acquired over the next few months, expect about the same number to be withdrawn, which include quite a few citaros
Apologies it was the Pronto B7's my mistake.
Has there ever been plans for the Citaros on the 9, 35 and 55 to be removed this year. Agreed on ex London stock though (hopefully nothing stupid like last time - Dual Door Vikings on the 21) mainly to get arid of the remaining B7TL's and Omnidekkas for schools.
(15 Aug 2020, 10:40 am)Storx At the cost of the 13 going hourly instead though, quite a large capacity decrease from Langley Park really, 3 full size singles (quite often deckers) to 1 full size single (sometimes a decker) and 2 minibuses an hour but Langley Park probably doesn't need 3 full size buses to Durham; Sacriston, Plawsworth and Witton Gilbert have their own routes (X5/X15 - 16 - 21/X21/50).Believe the plan was to remove all 07 bluestar citaros and the 06 plates. However with 53 vehicles acquired over the next few months, expect about the same number to be withdrawn, which include quite a few citaros
Apologies it was the Pronto B7's my mistake.
Has there ever been plans for the Citaros on the 9, 35 and 55 to be removed this year. Agreed on ex London stock though (hopefully nothing stupid like last time - Dual Door Vikings on the 21) mainly to get arid of the remaining B7TL's and Omnidekkas for schools.