North East Buses

Spotted on another forum, interesting to see how this plays out...

Link to Investis website with statement from Go-Ahead.

Interesting that both offers have come from existing transport operators and not a private equity group as in the case of Stagecoach (even though Kinetic backed in part by a Canadian pension fund)

That would be First, Stagecoach and Go Ahead all seeing takeovers in 2022 - at least someone is making money out of public transport!

Not sure a takeover would be the best thing for GNE personally. If you take something over then you will want to see growth and one way to do that is dispose of your rubbish which for GoAhead is GNW and GNE which are getting conveniently getting dumped together especially when the new company wouldn't need to have it's heritage connection of Newcastle.

(13 Jun 2022, 10:23 am)Ambassador wrote [ -> ]Interesting that both offers have come from existing transport operators and not a private equity group as in the case of Stagecoach (even though Kinetic backed in part by a Canadian pension fund)

That would be First, Stagecoach and Go Ahead all seeing takeovers in 2022 - at least someone is making money out of public transport!

In some ways inevitable.  The Lockheads, Gloags, Souters, Moyes, Ludemans of the world who built these companies up are now long since moved on.  Go Ahead's share price tanked following the South Eastern shenanigans, trading in Go Ahead shares was suspended for a period IIRC.

https://www.go-ahead.com/investors/regulatory-news

Looks like deal is recommended

(13 Jun 2022, 10:28 am)Storx wrote [ -> ]Not sure a takeover would be the best thing for GNE personally. If you take something over then you will want to see growth and one way to do that is dispose of your rubbish which for GoAhead is GNW and GNE which are getting conveniently getting dumped together especially when the new company wouldn't need to have it's heritage connection of Newcastle.

Bidco does not intend to dispose of any Go-Ahead's businesses, including any of Go-Ahead's international operations or fixed assets.

Quote from the document that they do not intend to dispose of any of the businesses.

(13 Jun 2022, 6:36 pm)citaro5284 wrote [ -> ]Bidco does not intend to dispose of any Go-Ahead's businesses, including any of Go-Ahead's international operations or fixed assets.

Quote from the document that they do not intend to dispose of any of the businesses. 

Absolutely meaningless in the grand scheme of things.
I didnt intend to get a Mighty Bucket for One the other day. But as I got closer and evaluated the options and circumstances in front of me, any initial intentions went out of the window.

(13 Jun 2022, 6:36 pm)citaro5284 wrote [ -> ]Bidco does not intend to dispose of any Go-Ahead's businesses, including any of Go-Ahead's international operations or fixed assets.

Quote from the document that they do not intend to dispose of any of the businesses.

They can change their mind once they've bought the shares!

(13 Jun 2022, 6:36 pm)citaro5284 wrote [ -> ]Bidco does not intend to dispose of any Go-Ahead's businesses, including any of Go-Ahead's international operations or fixed assets.

Quote from the document that they do not intend to dispose of any of the businesses.

As recently as January Martijn Gilbert responded to the rumours around the future of Chester le Street with a “no” or a “there are no plans, clearly a rumour…” Hmmm

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(13 Jun 2022, 10:28 am)Storx wrote [ -> ]Not sure a takeover would be the best thing for GNE personally. If you take something over then you will want to see growth and one way to do that is dispose of your rubbish which for GoAhead is GNW and GNE which are getting conveniently getting dumped together especially when the new company wouldn't need to have it's heritage connection of Newcastle.

Think I’d be inclined to add the East Anglia operations to the list of basket cases. Not sure how Plymouth is faring these days?

Good grief, thats GNE, GNW, East Anglia and Plymouth all in the firing line - be nowt left for them to buy at this rate.

(13 Jun 2022, 7:36 pm)citaro5284 wrote [ -> ]Good grief, thats GNE, GNW, East Anglia and Plymouth all in the firing line - be nowt left for them to buy at this rate.

It’s quite a list! The contracted regimes in the likes of London, Singapore, Ireland etc will be of more interest to potential bidders than GNE, GNW or East Anglia.

I'm guessing the scandal with SouthEastern has further depressed their value so I'm not awfully surprised they have had takeover bids, and it certainly seems to be the popular thing for UK PLCs at the moment). Like others have echoed, things certainly won't be business as usual and changes and/or disposals will be the order of the day.

Go-Ahead can't be that bad, if they've been snapped up without even being on the market! And with two bidders making an offer acceptable for the board to recommend to shareholders.

I tend to find that people don't buy sinking ships, so they must see some value in the acquisition.

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(13 Jun 2022, 7:09 pm)Chris 1 wrote [ -> ]As recently as January Martijn Gilbert responded to the rumours around the future of Chester le Street with a “no” or a “there are no plans, clearly a rumour…” Hmmm

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Think I’d be inclined to add the East Anglia operations to the list of basket cases. Not sure how Plymouth is faring these days?

Isn't Plymouth with GoCornwall which is all tendered so is just printing money for them so at least there's something down there for them, just had a look at the accounts and they made £1.2m over a revenue a 1/4 of GNE so doesn't seem too bad and that was before the GoCornwall free money. GoEastAnglia is a mess mind (more below).

(13 Jun 2022, 7:36 pm)citaro5284 wrote [ -> ]Good grief, thats GNE, GNW, East Anglia and Plymouth all in the firing line - be nowt left for them to buy at this rate.

It's not much really between them maybe taking out GoCornwall they'll be taking money from the company. Like said after the London contracts is where the money is in UK bus. GoAhead are (or were until very recently) the biggest operator in London and GoSouthCoast and Brighton and Hove are both very strong, both made £10m each or thereabouts in 2019. Just had a look at East Anglia and that is a basketcase mind, £1m loss between 2 of them, didn't check the third in 2019 so who knows what state that is in now.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/202...Y9GjVaPodk

Go-Ahead accepts £650m takeover offer from Kinetic and Globalvia


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(13 Jun 2022, 11:21 pm)TEN 6083 wrote [ -> ]https://www.theguardian.com/business/202...Y9GjVaPodk

Go-Ahead accepts £650m takeover offer from Kinetic and Globalvia


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That was quick.

Hopefully they don't run it to the ground, like DB has with Arriva.

(14 Jun 2022, 8:53 am)Michael wrote [ -> ]That was quick.

Hopefully they don't run it to the ground, like DB has with Arriva.

Not sure they could run it to the ground much more. They've had a massive accounting scandal and some of their operating areas in particular GNE are as bare bones as they can get. 

Arriva now is much better than when DB bought it when it really was bad.

I wonder why Arriva are still looking for a buyer thou?

Stagecoach already sold, Go Ahead have accepted an offer, FirstGroup have had offers and rejected the latest one valuing the group at 1.2 billion, yet Arriva have supposedly being on the market for a while now and no takers.

(14 Jun 2022, 9:17 am)citaro5284 wrote [ -> ]I wonder why Arriva are still looking for a buyer thou?

Stagecoach already sold, Go Ahead have accepted an offer, FirstGroup have had offers and rejected the latest one valuing the group at 1.2 billion, yet Arriva have supposedly being on the market for a while now and no takers.

They want too much money from what I've heard.

(14 Jun 2022, 9:17 am)citaro5284 wrote [ -> ]I wonder why Arriva are still looking for a buyer thou?

Stagecoach already sold, Go Ahead have accepted an offer, FirstGroup have had offers and rejected the latest one valuing the group at 1.2 billion, yet Arriva have supposedly being on the market for a while now and no takers.

DB aren't willing to devalue the sale.

On a related matter, it looks like the latest set of GNE accounts are being "processed" on the companies house website and should appear in the next few days according to the note....

A loss of £1.1million for the year ending July 2021

https://find-and-update.company-informat...format=pdf&download=0

(23 Jun 2022, 7:13 pm)DeltaMan wrote [ -> ]A loss of £1.1million for the year ending July 2021

https://find-and-update.company-informat...format=pdf&download=0

Tbh, that isn't that bad, but it still need to be improved

(23 Jun 2022, 7:18 pm)Unber43 wrote [ -> ]Tbh, that isn't that bad, but it still need to be improved

Never knew inflation was that bad yet for a loss of £1+m can be considered not bad. Have I woken up in 2030? Is a Saver Menu Mayo Chicken now £50?

(23 Jun 2022, 8:15 pm)northern156 wrote [ -> ]Never knew inflation was that bad yet for a loss of £1+m can be considered not bad. Have I woken up in 2030? Is a Saver Menu Mayo Chicken now £50?

I was expecting it to be like 2-4 million.

(23 Jun 2022, 8:17 pm)Unber43 wrote [ -> ]I was expecting it to be like 2-4 million.

Compared to the other big Go Ahead companies its in the same ballpark, although at the worse end. For the same period Oxford lost 479k, Brighton and Hove lost 670k. Go South Coast interestingly made a small profit of around 600k after tax.

I would like to compare with Stagecoach and Arriva. But thier reporting periods are different.

(24 Jun 2022, 6:12 am)DeltaMan wrote [ -> ]Compared to the other big Go Ahead companies its in the same ballpark, although at the worse end. For the same period Oxford lost 479k, Brighton and Hove lost 670k. Go South Coast interestingly made a small profit of around 600k after tax.

I would like to compare with Stagecoach and Arriva. But thier reporting periods are different.

Well we know Stagecoach North East is making a profit.  But how much, Go South Coast probs made money off contracts, but really only Go-Ahead in their bus area only lost 1.5 million. 

Wonder whether the entirety of Stagecoach is making money & same with Arriva or whether it will just be regions and see if they generate a positive income overall

Profits mean nothing during Covid.

The £20m a year black hole between income and costs is the bigger issue which unless something has changed in terms of numbers growing massively then there's a big problem.

(23 Jun 2022, 7:13 pm)DeltaMan wrote [ -> ]A loss of £1.1million for the year ending July 2021

https://find-and-update.company-informat...format=pdf&download=0

Interesting analysis within the doc. One of the first time the fingers haven't been pointed at traffic jams or roadworks.

They're apparently adapting to changing travel patterns too. Not sure I've seen many adaptations. It's been mainly cuts and proposals to cut.

There was mention of the coaches in there too. Guessing they're the X9/10 branded vehicles. 

We were also told that all of the investment and titivations were getting certain vehicles and routes ready for post pandemic work. The costs for those must have been huge and clearly didn't justify the thinking behind it nor investment and I'm pretty sure played a part in the seven figure loss.

(24 Jun 2022, 9:13 am)Andreos1 wrote [ -> ]Interesting analysis within the doc. One of the first time the fingers haven't been pointed at traffic jams or roadworks.

They're apparently adapting to changing travel patterns too. Not sure I've seen many adaptations. It's been mainly cuts and proposals to cut.

There was mention of the coaches in there too. Guessing they're the X9/10 branded vehicles. 

We were also told that all of the investment and titivations were getting certain vehicles and routes ready for post pandemic work. The costs for those must have been huge and clearly didn't justify the thinking behind it nor investment and I'm pretty sure played a part in the seven figure loss.

To be fair, the figures cover the year when the worst of covid was around, not the last 12 months. Although one can draw thier own conclusions as to where things are now compared to that annual report for the year ending July 2021