(28 Oct 2023, 10:09 am)streetdeckfan wrote [ -> ]Would they really be in any worse of a situation?
It seems like running the buses is more expensive than not.
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Well yeah, because they're gonna have to spend an absolute fortune recruiting and training an entire workforce.
(25 Oct 2023, 2:14 pm)Adrian wrote [ -> ]Another one that looks like it's been written by someone that has been slapped across the face with a copy of the S*n...
From this paragraph, it sounds like the offer will be put to ballot: "The next move is for Unite to ballot its members. An endorsement for the new pay rates should allow the union to call off its indefinite strike due to start on Saturday 28 October."
What isn't clear, probably due to the tabloid-style writing, is whether it'd be recommended for acceptance.
(28 Oct 2023, 10:38 am)col87 wrote [ -> ]Well it seems to me the current management are doing there best to kill off go north east. I do not see this ending very well and if I was Stagecoach Arriva or of the independents i would be using any loophole i could to be setting up services in the areas most affected and trying to do it on an emergency basis with a view to it been permanent and nicking Go North East’s passengers.
In theory you would think Go North East would be doing everything to make it don’t last 12 weeks but i get the impression the current management don’t care to much so i have to wonder if someone higher up from the Go Ahead will eventually step in to try sort something out. Passengers in the meantime are going to make do or find alternatives to get about so while a majority will go back to using them when services are restored they is likely going to be a drop in passengers
Stagecoach have the entire country to lean on for buses, driver numbers are the problem. Stagecoach could do it if they wanted to, seems the old fashioned spirit no longer exists.
(28 Oct 2023, 11:28 am)Bazza wrote [ -> ]So if I was currently a GNE driver I could see the current dispute as a bit of a gamble, with either a vastly improved renumeration package or at worse a move to another operator ( in the case of ANE and Stagecoach) with a slightly better package that I now have.
Ironically, they'd leave for Arriva or Stagecoach and be paid the same or slightly worse to go and work for the very conditions Unite have been fighting against.
Those conditions changes that have been taken off the table rendering this dispute purely over pay. Albeit with a vague promise of discussions over conditions within 3 months (which if the Union members didn't agree with, could be grounds for further industrial action in the future if they try to force the condition changes through).
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(28 Oct 2023, 2:41 pm)streetdeckfan wrote [ -> ]That implies they would want to keep running buses in the North East. It's just not financially viable!
It clearly is. It’s not financially viable if you let Giljbert and his disciples then Maxfield have a go
Was thinking about this before and they're squabbling over roughly an £1 an hour. It might seem a lot of money but in the grand scheme of things it's literally 1 passenger, every 3 buses an hour. No doubt this strike long term will drop passenger numbers and exceed that.
Never know having the higher wage might mean they could have a full intake of drivers which means that every route could run - yet again which will bring more money in than 1/3 of a passenger fare per hour.
(29 Oct 2023, 4:21 pm)Storx wrote [ -> ]Was thinking about this before and they're squabbling over roughly an £1 an hour. It might seem a lot of money but in the grand scheme of things it's literally 1 passenger, every 3 buses an hour. No doubt this strike long term will drop passenger numbers and exceed that.
Never know having the higher wage might mean they could have a full intake of drivers which means that every route could run - yet again which will bring more money in than 1/3 of a passenger fare per hour.
I don’t often reply in this thread, but I wanted to quickly highlight that by increasing wages by £1/hr, you’re adding at least £3 million to the wage bill at GNE.
When the company’s published accounts already show them losing £millions, I’m not sure how they could sustain adding another £3m of cost (on top of the £4m the company has already tabled and has been rejected).
I’m off to pour myself a large glass of red…
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(29 Oct 2023, 5:32 pm)Dan wrote [ -> ]I don’t often reply in this thread, but I wanted to quickly highlight that by increasing wages by £1/hr, you’re adding at least £3 million to the wage bill at GNE.
When the company’s published accounts already show them losing £millions, I’m not sure how they could sustain adding another £3m of cost (on top of the £4m the company has already tabled and has been rejected).
I’m off to pour myself a large glass of red…
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The companies revenue from fares is £65m though in 2022. These strikes are going to lose customers long term as much as 5% easily which is this £3m. I get the argument that giving more money when making a loss is stupid, which of course it is, but the constant strikes and service cancellations, buses are never going to recover.
Obviously I don't have the financial stats it but if these cancellations keep going, people will continue to avoid buses and long term it will be more damaging and no btw I don't agree with the £15+ that is stupid but I have heard on another forum that the union proposed a deal for £14.81 which would've ended all this which GNE rejected.
I know Ben Maxfield get's a lot of criticism and he probably deserves it but this imo all stems back to utterly crazy idea under the past management to slash fares across the board. Absolutely ridiculous decision which backfired big time especially considering Arriva and Stagecoach have both recovered to similar levels, and arguably better in some areas like Ashington but didn't intentionally decide to slash it's fares.
(29 Oct 2023, 5:53 pm)Storx wrote [ -> ]The companies revenue from fares is £65m though in 2022. These strikes are going to lose customers long term as much as 5% easily which is this £3m. I get the argument that giving more money when making a loss is stupid, which of course it is, but the constant strikes and service cancellations, buses are never going to recover.
Obviously I don't have the financial stats it but if these cancellations keep going, people will continue to avoid buses and long term it will be more damaging and no btw I don't agree with the £15+ that is stupid but I have heard on another forum that the union proposed a deal for £14.81 which would've ended all this which GNE rejected.
I know Ben Maxfield get's a lot of criticism and he probably deserves it but this imo all stems back to utterly crazy idea under the past management to slash fares across the board. Absolutely ridiculous decision which backfired big time especially considering Arriva and Stagecoach have both recovered to similar levels, and arguably better in some areas like Ashington but didn't intentionally decide to slash it's fares.
Yes, but the operating costs were £89.7m, leaving them with an operating loss of £1.9m (not the inflated figure they're quoting). Their operating costs have actually decreased by about £7m, compared to their 2019 accounts, but the real issue is they're down about £7.5m on contract (or 'other') revenue and close to £17m on passenger revenue.
As I posted elsewhere earlier, it seems that the first thought is still cut, rather than grow. It's never going to work in the long-term; you're simply re-arranging the deckchairs on a sinking ship.
Maxfield gets a lot of criticism, and rightly so. At a time the business clearly needs leadership, they've ended up with a glove puppet for NF. It's absolutely ludicrous that they expect their workforce to pay the price for failure at the top.
(29 Oct 2023, 6:09 pm)Adrian wrote [ -> ]Yes, but the operating costs were £89.7m, leaving them with an operating loss of £1.9m (not the inflated figure they're quoting). Their operating costs have actually decreased by about £7m, compared to their 2019 accounts, but the real issue is they're down about £7.5m on contract (or 'other') revenue and close to £17m on passenger revenue.
As I posted elsewhere earlier, it seems that the first thought is still cut, rather than grow. It's never going to work in the long-term; you're simply re-arranging the deckchairs on a sinking ship.
Maxfield gets a lot of criticism, and rightly so. At a time the business clearly needs leadership, they've ended up with a glove puppet for NF. It's absolutely ludicrous that they expect their workforce to pay the price for failure at the top.
Honesty can't disagree to be honest. Growth is the answer but they're doing everything but. It'll be interesting to see how much they've spuffed down the drain on agency drivers in the last 2 years. You never know if the drivers were paid properly then maybe they would've never needed them or even better they could actually take on more contract work and that would've made the difference. Then on the passenger how much revenue they've lost because of buses not running at all. I know I would've be relying on them if 1/4 days the bus doesn't run at all.
It's very short termism and has been for awhile especially the jumping the gates of cutting services post COVID while Arriva and Stagecoach held off for longer whether that made any difference who knows but in some Arriva areas they're above pre COVID numbers so it hasn't exactly done anything wrong.
(29 Oct 2023, 5:53 pm)Storx wrote [ -> ]The companies revenue from fares is £65m though in 2022. These strikes are going to lose customers long term as much as 5% easily which is this £3m. I get the argument that giving more money when making a loss is stupid, which of course it is, but the constant strikes and service cancellations, buses are never going to recover.
Obviously I don't have the financial stats it but if these cancellations keep going, people will continue to avoid buses and long term it will be more damaging and no btw I don't agree with the £15+ that is stupid but I have heard on another forum that the union proposed a deal for £14.81 which would've ended all this which GNE rejected.
I know Ben Maxfield get's a lot of criticism and he probably deserves it but this imo all stems back to utterly crazy idea under the past management to slash fares across the board. Absolutely ridiculous decision which backfired big time especially considering Arriva and Stagecoach have both recovered to similar levels, and arguably better in some areas like Ashington but didn't intentionally decide to slash it's fares.
To get that extra £3m per year though, they'd have to grow revenue by over £8000 per day. Lets assume all passengers are paying by £2 singles - that's an extra 4000 journeys per day needed to claw back that £3m.
That's on top of the £4m that has been stated above to cover the pay rise which has been offered. Combined, GNE would need to increase revenue by over £19000 per day to fully cover the pay rise. That's 4750 new customers that need to make 2 trips by bus, every single day.
In terms of your point on Arriva and Stagecoach, I wonder if that is more due to them having reasonably stable networks, especially in Northumberland and Newcastle? Those networks (bar the 51-55) are now slowly starting to expand again, albeit largely due to BSIP funding.
(29 Oct 2023, 6:09 pm)Adrian wrote [ -> ]Yes, but the operating costs were £89.7m, leaving them with an operating loss of £1.9m (not the inflated figure they're quoting). Their operating costs have actually decreased by about £7m, compared to their 2019 accounts, but the real issue is they're down about £7.5m on contract (or 'other') revenue and close to £17m on passenger revenue.
As I posted elsewhere earlier, it seems that the first thought is still cut, rather than grow. It's never going to work in the long-term; you're simply re-arranging the deckchairs on a sinking ship.
Maxfield gets a lot of criticism, and rightly so. At a time the business clearly needs leadership, they've ended up with a glove puppet for NF. It's absolutely ludicrous that they expect their workforce to pay the price for failure at the top.
I struggle to see how they grow the business in it's current state, especially given the amount required to pay for these pay increases. There seems to be no investment currently from the new owners, just more second hand vehicles which themselves will need replacing sooner rather than later.
I think the expansion into North Tyneside was probably a decent attempt, but even if they were making a bit of money to start with I can't see those routes surviving this strike - passengers will have gone to Stagecoach, or will have arranged car shares as you've pointed out in another thread.
(29 Oct 2023, 6:43 pm)mb134 wrote [ -> ]To get that extra £3m per year though, they'd have to grow revenue by over £8000 per day. Lets assume all passengers are paying by £2 singles - that's an extra 4000 journeys per day needed to claw back that £3m.
That's on top of the £4m that has been stated above to cover the pay rise which has been offered. Combined, GNE would need to increase revenue by over £19000 per day to fully cover the pay rise. That's 4750 new customers that need to make 2 trips by bus, every single day.
In terms of your point on Arriva and Stagecoach, I wonder if that is more due to them having reasonably stable networks, especially in Northumberland and Newcastle? Those networks (bar the 51-55) are now slowly starting to expand again, albeit largely due to BSIP funding.
I struggle to see how they grow the business in it's current state, especially given the amount required to pay for these pay increases. There seems to be no investment currently from the new owners, just more second hand vehicles which themselves will need replacing sooner rather than later.
I think the expansion into North Tyneside was probably a decent attempt, but even if they were making a bit of money to start with I can't see those routes surviving this strike - passengers will have gone to Stagecoach, or will have arranged car shares as you've pointed out in another thread.
In the first point, isn't the deficit between the standard fare and £2 fare being reimbursed by the Government?
Just for context,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-67248853 they were apparently carrying approx 200k pax per day prior to the strikes.
Your 4th paragraph sums it up imo. I've said it for years on here and elsewhere. They're not going to grow, when constantly consolidating.
The second hand vehicles are an inevitable outcome of those cuts.
There's been no to little growth for decades. Despite the spin.
Covid is just an easy get out. A bit like the roadworks in Newcastle that has been used as excuses in shareholder reports.
(29 Oct 2023, 6:43 pm)mb134 wrote [ -> ]To get that extra £3m per year though, they'd have to grow revenue by over £8000 per day. Lets assume all passengers are paying by £2 singles - that's an extra 4000 journeys per day needed to claw back that £3m.
That's on top of the £4m that has been stated above to cover the pay rise which has been offered. Combined, GNE would need to increase revenue by over £19000 per day to fully cover the pay rise. That's 4750 new customers that need to make 2 trips by bus, every single day.
In terms of your point on Arriva and Stagecoach, I wonder if that is more due to them having reasonably stable networks, especially in Northumberland and Newcastle? Those networks (bar the 51-55) are now slowly starting to expand again, albeit largely due to BSIP funding.
Aren't the £2 fares topped with extra cash from the government though so I'm assuming they'll be getting more than £2 per each single. It would be complete suicide if they didn't for the longer distance journeys.
But even at 9.5k (should be less though) seems a lot but at the end of the day they have 175,000 journeys a day - according to
https://www.gonortheast.co.uk/about-go-north-east so it's still around that 5% mark.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see a 10% reduction over the long term because of the number of cancellations and now strikes, long term it could end being an expensive mistake especially now because Nexus and the local councils aren't exactly going to be in best terms losing contract work especially in relation with schools. Having buses actually running would no doubt go a long way towards that number, as I know I wouldn't be using GNE buses if I needed in certain areas as it's just unusable.
Arriva and SNE is strange though, not sure to be honest. I've heard that some routes down Darlington and Stockton with both are doing really well aswell and the likes of South Shields and Hartlepool which generally have been a bit of a mess for years with low cost units and stuff have barely had any cuts at all and whenever I see the buses the loads look good enough tbh. Apart from some routes in the rural areas of Durham there hasn't really been any cuts between either of them bar some arguably sensible frequency reductions.
GoNorthEast have really messed up and tbh I put it down to jumping the gun and reducing services really early. When there's a pandemic, people probably actually respected the buses being quiet rather than being stuffed in like cattle and the buses have grown naturally with people gaining confidence in going out again whereas GNE people who used them all the time got scared and moved elsewhere and haven't returned and in turn their bus has now disappeared so now have no choice regardless. Not to mention having massive network changes so when people gained confidence their bus disappeared and just stuck with whatever they were doing during Covid.
(29 Oct 2023, 7:00 pm)Andreos1 wrote [ -> ]In the first point, isn't the deficit between the standard fare and £2 fare being reimbursed by the Government?
Just for context, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-67248853 they were apparently carrying approx 2000 pax per day prior to the strikes.
I'm not too sure how that is all worked out to be honest, just used it as an example for easy maths to show the growth needed. I had thought that it was based on passenger numbers/revenue before the introduction, with the reviews to reflect any growth that the £2 fares have had?
Looking at it another way, though, their All Zones day ticket is £7.50 on the app. They'd need an extra 2500 of those sold per day to get in the £19000 of extra daily revenue needed to pay for the pay increases.
On the passenger numbers, I can only see 175,000 per day stated in that article? "As one of the main bus operators in the area, the company has a fleet of almost 700 buses and coaches and said about 175,000 people usually boarded its services each day.".
(29 Oct 2023, 7:09 pm)mb134 wrote [ -> ]I'm not too sure how that is all worked out to be honest, just used it as an example for easy maths to show the growth needed. I had thought that it was based on passenger numbers/revenue before the introduction, with the reviews to reflect any growth that the £2 fares have had?
Looking at it another way, though, their All Zones day ticket is £7.50 on the app. They'd need an extra 2500 of those sold per day to get in the £19000 of extra daily revenue needed to pay for the pay increases.
On the passenger numbers, I can only see 175,000 per day stated in that article? "As one of the main bus operators in the area, the company has a fleet of almost 700 buses and coaches and said about 175,000 people usually boarded its services each day.".
To be fair though, assume there's 500 buses on a road every day. It's only 5 passenger per bus every day. Seems a lot but when you break it down it's not really much at all.
Just picking the 20/20A which is every 15 minutes between Durham and Sunderland. There's roughly 100 runs with both directions combined, if you got an extra 3 passengers on each run (not exactly unrealistic - this was 6 BPH pre Covid adding the X20 in) then you're 15% or so of the way there already. Do the same on the 21, 56 and X1 and you'll be well on your way there.
(29 Oct 2023, 7:09 pm)mb134 wrote [ -> ]I'm not too sure how that is all worked out to be honest, just used it as an example for easy maths to show the growth needed. I had thought that it was based on passenger numbers/revenue before the introduction, with the reviews to reflect any growth that the £2 fares have had?
Looking at it another way, though, their All Zones day ticket is £7.50 on the app. They'd need an extra 2500 of those sold per day to get in the £19000 of extra daily revenue needed to pay for the pay increases.
On the passenger numbers, I can only see 175,000 per day stated in that article? "As one of the main bus operators in the area, the company has a fleet of almost 700 buses and coaches and said about 175,000 people usually boarded its services each day.".
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/claiming-the...very-grant
Here's some light reading. I hate Government grants/tenders etc and I'm too tired/hungover to do the maths, but the 200k they were originally carrying needs to grow regardless of any wage increase.
As a business, it's clear from the outside they're not achieving the growth and I genuinely don't know what the mindset is when we keep seeing the push for profit via cuts and cost savings vs profit via growth and expansion.
(29 Oct 2023, 7:25 pm)Storx wrote [ -> ]To be fair though, assume there's 500 buses on a road every day. It's only 5 passenger per bus every day. Seems a lot but when you break it down it's not really much at all.
Just picking the 20/20A which is every 15 minutes between Durham and Sunderland. There's roughly 100 runs with both directions combined, if you got an extra 3 passengers on each run (not exactly unrealistic - this was 6 BPH pre Covid adding the X10 in) then you're 15% or so of the way there already. Do the same on the 21, 56 and X1 and you'll be pretty much nearly there.
And that's why I think the idea of cutting fares could have played a part in the growth.
You've said yourself it's only a handful of passengers per run across a variety of services.
The long gone eezypeazy never really liked what I said when I brought up similar points to the one you've just made, in the past.
That 21 from Chester that relied on the early 71s and 34s feeding in to it in Chester, inevitably saw numbers drop when the loss making runs on the 71 and 34 were axed. Only small numbers dropped off those 21s, but it somehow came as a huge shock when particular 21s on a morning were axed too.
I'd love to know what the impact on the X1 has been with the constant meddling of the Washington locals over the years.
Whether it was ANE doing the evening runs, JH doing daytime runs or GNE running it commercially, there must be a consequence and impact with the X1.
(29 Oct 2023, 6:43 pm)mb134 wrote [ -> ]I struggle to see how they grow the business in it's current state, especially given the amount required to pay for these pay increases. There seems to be no investment currently from the new owners, just more second hand vehicles which themselves will need replacing sooner rather than later.
I think the expansion into North Tyneside was probably a decent attempt, but even if they were making a bit of money to start with I can't see those routes surviving this strike - passengers will have gone to Stagecoach, or will have arranged car shares as you've pointed out in another thread.
I'm not suggesting it's easy, but it's the only option that won't involve downsizing/consolidation.
Wages are going to go up every year, and say this increase isn't agreed this year, I think it's pretty much guaranteed that it'll be at that level in the next 2-3 years. It's not just wages, though, suppliers are doing the same, as they have their own cost demands.
So if they're not going to try and look for a positive solution to 2023's position, what are they going to do come year 3 or 4?
Regarding the £2 fare, I'm not sure how the reimbursement formula works, but I understand that operators can opt not to participate in it and retain control over their fares.
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(29 Oct 2023, 7:25 pm)Andreos1 wrote [ -> ]And that's why I think the idea of cutting fares could have played a part in the growth.
You've said yourself it's only a handful of passengers per run across a variety of services.
The long gone eezypeazy never really liked what I said when I brought up similar points to the one you've just made, in the past.
That 21 from Chester that relied on the early 71s and 34s feeding in to it in Chester, inevitably saw numbers drop when the loss making runs on the 71 and 34 were axed. Only small numbers dropped off those 21s, but it somehow came as a huge shock when particular 21s on a morning were axed too.
I'd love to know what the impact on the X1 has been with the constant meddling of the Washington locals over the years.
Whether it was ANE doing the evening runs, JH doing daytime runs or GNE running it commercially, there must be a consequence and impact with the X1.
Aye totally agreed, I always found the splitting of GNE routes quite bizarre, it's the complete opposite of Arriva. I know some will jump in and say it's stupid to have a bus from Sunderland to Durham via everywhere in the world, no-one is going to do that but totally ignore the parts where it gives the 1/4 and 3/4 passengers the choice of both Sunderland and Durham which they wouldn't have.
I know I've made my feelings about local town services known before but I really don't understand stuff like the Venture network in Consett, just send the X45/X46 for example to Delves Lane and be done with it, now they've got a direct bus to Newcastle and nothing else changes. The 30 was the same in Stanley, easily could've been an extension of the X30, now they've got a link to Newcastle. GNE were the only ones which really kept the town services going and by god did they meddle with them aswell like you said.
I think some fare promotions would work, the catch-22 is when you drop the prices you move the goal posts on how many passengers you need, some of the reductions were completely stupid. £1.90 maximum fare on the 19 for example. You could have full bus loads of Ashington and that wouldn't make money, I really don't know what they were thinking tbh. Some of the Durham fares were just as bonkers, believe it was the same on the X21 from CLS to Bishop Auckland - it's no wonder the Crook outstation became unsustainable with fares like that and 65 from Seaham to Durham.
(29 Oct 2023, 7:25 pm)Andreos1 wrote [ -> ]https://www.gov.uk/guidance/claiming-the...very-grant
Here's some light reading. I hate Government grants/tenders etc and I'm too tired/hungover to do the maths, but the 200k they were originally carrying needs to grow regardless of any wage increase.
As a business, it's clear from the outside they're not achieving the growth and I genuinely don't know what the mindset is when we keep seeing the push for profit via cuts and cost savings vs profit via growth and expansion.
(29 Oct 2023, 7:39 pm)Adrian wrote [ -> ]I'm not suggesting it's easy, but it's the only option that won't involve downsizing/consolidation.
Wages are going to go up every year, and say this increase isn't agreed this year, I think it's pretty much guaranteed that it'll be at that level in the next 2-3 years. It's not just wages, though, suppliers are doing the same, as they have their own cost demands.
So if they're not going to try and look for a positive solution to 2023's position, what are they going to do come year 3 or 4?
Regarding the £2 fare, I'm not sure how the reimbursement formula works, but I understand that operators can opt not to participate in it and retain control over their fares.
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I'll reply in one since I think my response will be similar.
I absolutely agree with both of you that the business needs to grow, not just for this pay increase but to ensure the long term sustainability of the business. Cutting services can only go on for so long before there's nothing left to cut and the network isn't really a network anymore.
As the business stands currently, however, I just don't see any potential for the growth required. There doesn't look to be the support there from GAG that would be required, in particular the lack of investment in new vehicles is approaching Arriva levels of sod all. Then there are the current routes, maybe there was the potential for growing those with frequency increases, but will that still be the case after the industrial action?
(29 Oct 2023, 8:43 pm)mb134 wrote [ -> ]I'll reply in one since I think my response will be similar.
I absolutely agree with both of you that the business needs to grow, not just for this pay increase but to ensure the long term sustainability of the business. Cutting services can only go on for so long before there's nothing left to cut and the network isn't really a network anymore.
As the business stands currently, however, I just don't see any potential for the growth required. There doesn't look to be the support there from GAG that would be required, in particular the lack of investment in new vehicles is approaching Arriva levels of sod all. Then there are the current routes, maybe there was the potential for growing those with frequency increases, but will that still be the case after the industrial action?
Aye it's good point that mind. Must say I feel it's very different to Arriva aswell. It always seem Arriva management actually want to sort the problems out, but they're held back by lack of funds from the ultimate holding group (DB) so everything is done on a shoestring across the company as they have literally no choice. It's a very different scenario where GoAhead really don't seem to give a toss about GoNorthEast only and are being let to suffer on a limb.
I know Feetham is hiding in a corner right now but I wouldn't want to be in his position in a way, it's very different to the position under Arriva where he was getting massive investment at the time. Right now he's been expected to do miracles really. I know GoNorthWest are doing alright, but it'll be interesting to see if he jumps ship with Ben if they had the right offer. The mess of GoNorthEast on your CV will never look good. Gilbert jumped shift and I always thought it was because of his uselessness but I'm starting to think it's not that and he was escaping as he knew what was coming. Very similar to Hornby at Transdev Blazefield which is spiralling out of control aswell.
I see a bleak future for GoNorthEast personally, but I hope I'm proven wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if it's ditched before long, moving East Yorkshire out of it and dumping it with Manchester miles away was the first alarm bell. Diverting half the Streetdeck order to Oxford and sending the coaches was another alarm bell which went missed and so is 'loaning' half the new fleet to Manchester another serious alarm bell.