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+--- Thread: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions (/showthread.php?tid=784)
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Kuyoyo - 23 Dec 2013
B9s are also unlikely for future decker orders unless they were ordered in the next week - the Euro6 emissions take effect from the 1st January 2014 when the Volvo Decker becomes the B5TL (after operators requested the 5-litre engine in the new decker rather than the planned 8-litre fitted to the replacement for the B7RLE - the B8RLE).
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - tyresmoke - 23 Dec 2013
GNEs batch of 56 plate Omnicities are Euro4 versions. The Arriva Euro3 Omnicities are so much better in comparison, reliability is way higher than GNE's. look how Percy Main struggle massively despite how many they have!!
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Michael - 28 Dec 2013
(23 Dec 2013, 1:05 pm)Kuyoyo wrote B9s are also unlikely for future decker orders unless they were ordered in the next week - the Euro6 emissions take effect from the 1st January 2014 when the Volvo Decker becomes the B5TL (after operators requested the 5-litre engine in the new decker rather than the planned 8-litre fitted to the replacement for the B7RLE - the B8RLE).
Could they not use the B5TL on other services?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Davey Bowyer - 30 Dec 2013
I honestly don't know how operators are going to cope over the coming years with regards to rural and endurance routes when the likes of the B9TL/DB250 are withdrawn in favour of so called eco-friendly buses. How would the B5TL cope tearing up and down the A19 with a maximum of 94 passengers everyday for 7 years? Volvo don't realise that some operators still need bigger engines for high capacity long range double deck routes such as GNE's TTX and Arriva's X15 and X18.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Kuyoyo - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 9:02 am)Davey Bowyer wrote I honestly don't know how operators are going to cope over the coming years with regards to rural and endurance routes when the likes of the B9TL/DB250 are withdrawn in favour of so called eco-friendly buses. How would the B5TL cope tearing up and down the A19 with a maximum of 94 passengers everyday for 7 years? Volvo don't realise that some operators still need bigger engines for high capacity long range double deck routes such as GNE's TTX and Arriva's X15 and X18.
I think you need to re-read my post, Volvo were originally planning to fit the 8-litre engine going in the single decker and some coaches but the operators requested the decker be fitted with the 5-litre engine used in the hybrids.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 9:20 am)Kuyoyo wrote I think you need to re-read my post, Volvo were originally planning to fit the 8-litre engine going in the single decker and some coaches but the operators requested the decker be fitted with the 5-litre engine used in the hybrids.
That would have been 'the majority vote', as it were. Each and every operator would not have requested that they were fitted with 5-litre engines - as Davey Bowyer said, the B5TL is not suitable for the purpose B9TLs are currently being used for, by some operators (in short, a low-floor coach alternative).
I don't think it's a coincidence such a large number (47) of B9TL vehicles were purchased this year, by Go North East.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Andreos1 - 30 Dec 2013
Pretty certain I read somewhere, that Diesel engines were not going to be an option on some Volvo vehicle types too.
At the moment, operators have the choice between diesel or hybrid, that choice will be removed going forward.
www.volvobusenvironmentblog.com/2013/10/01/hybrid-is-no-longer-optional/
The 31st of December in 2013 Volvo will make hybrid the standard offer for city buses in Europe.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Davey Bowyer - 30 Dec 2013
Even the big engine option Scania offer on the ADL400 body, won't be enough due to the poor reliability of Scanias. How will operators cope though in the future? Take this as an example:
- The B9TL's on the TTX are only 16 month old and despite a few problems with them here and there, they've served their purpose well. When they get to 7 years old, they'll be battered and bruised but will still be good for less demanding work.
- Arriva's ADL E400's with the Cummins ISBe 6 Cylinder engine, were struggling at 2 1/2 years old particularly on the slip roads and that was only on the 308! And just very recently, 7510 which was part of the original X31/2/3 purchase, went up in smoke in Felton.
- Arriva's VDL DB300's with the same engine, are only 2-4 years old and they're struggling with reports of engine rebuilds being required. I went on one once on the X10 and it was struggling on the A1.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Davey Bowyer - 30 Dec 2013
What I would say though, is in five years time, Yorkshire Coastliner (Transdev), Arriva and GNE could unite for a big order of the Gemini 3. There would be enough orders to warrant Wrightbus to add the B8TL engine into the Wright Gemini 3. Look at it like this:
- GNE would order 20 for the TEN and TTX.
- Arriva would order 37 for the X10, X11, X15, X18, X21 and X22.
-Transdev would order 20 for the Yorkshire Coastliner.
It would be a total order of 77 vehicles and this alone would warrant the cost of Wrightbus serving a collabirated order.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Andreos1 - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 12:58 pm)Davey Bowyer wrote What I would say though, is in five years time, Yorkshire Coastliner (Transdev), Arriva and GNE could unite for a big order of the Gemini 3. There would be enough orders to warrant Wrightbus to add the B8TL engine into the Wright Gemini 3. Look at it like this:
- GNE would order 20 for the TEN and TTX.
- Arriva would order 37 for the X10, X11, X15, X18, X21 and X22.
-Transdev would order 20 for the Yorkshire Coastliner.
It would be a total order of 77 vehicles and this alone would warrant the cost of Wrightbus serving a collabirated order.
To be honest, the different divisions of each company could do that.
GNE could order however many, as do Oxford, Brighton etc.
Pretty sure bulk ordering happens already just to reduced the costs.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Michael - 30 Dec 2013
With GNE wanting to order 80 buses for 2014/2015.
The Gemini 3 could be on the list of Demo buses for next year.
We go back to Rob's teaser list:
Lime
X66
Laser
Crusader
Washington Street Shuttle
--------------
Only route their which could get a Gemini 3 is the 27.
Can't see any of the other services getting decker's.
Unless GNE change their plans for orders.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Andreos1 - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 1:11 pm)Michael wrote With GNE wanting to order 80 buses for 2014/2015.
The Gemini 3 could be on the list of Demo buses for next year.
We go back to Rob's teaser list:
Lime
X66
Laser
Crusader
Washington Street Shuttle
--------------
Only route their which could get a Gemini 3 is the 27.
Can't see any of the other services getting decker's.
Unless GNE change their plans for orders.
In days gone by, the 35 was known as the 535 and 536.
There were deckers on the route then.
You never know...
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Michael - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 1:13 pm)andreos1 wrote In days gone by, the 35 was known as the 535 and 536.
There were deckers on the route then.
You never know...
Ye, GNE could change their plans but atm only info we have on the Laser is new Citaro's will replace the Scania's... to me that's daft when they could just upgrade all of the brand with new buses.
For me it would be:
Decker's for the Laser
Laser Citaro's to Prince Bishops
Prince Bishop Scania's replacing Cadets
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 1:22 pm)Michael wrote Ye, GNE could change their plans but atm only info we have on the Laser is new Citaro's will replace the Scania's... to me that's daft when they could just upgrade all of the brand with new buses.
For me it would be:
Decker's for the Laser
Laser Citaro's to Prince Bishops
Prince Bishop Scania's replacing Cadets
That, or the Solars replacing the Volvo B10BLE/Wright Renown vehicles which has previously been discussed... If you went with the latter option, I'd say you were spot on.
The Solars are to start entering the "spare role fleet" too, as most have clocked up quite a few years now... Pointless branding them for a service.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Michael - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 1:31 pm)Dan wrote That, or the Solars replacing the Volvo B10BLE/Wright Renown vehicles which has previously been discussed... If you went with the latter option, I'd say you were spot on.
I was busy talking to someone else at the same time and we were discussing the cadets, typed it in by accident.
Dan it does seem the best way to do it, instead of just replacing the laser scania's
I also hope they get decker's for the Prince Bishops some time in the future, maybe in 2015/2016
They are hoping their 160 new buses in service by the end of 2016...
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 1:35 pm)Michael wrote I was busy talking to someone else at the same time and we were discussing the cadets, typed it in by accident.
Dan it does seem the best way to do it, instead of just replacing the laser scania's
I also hope they get decker's for the Prince Bishops some time in the future, maybe in 2015/2016
They are hoping their 160 new buses in service by the end of 2016...
I suspect Go North East will make the right decision in the end, and what you've said sounds pretty logical to me (replacing Renowns as opposed to Cadets as I said above, however).
Let's remember that Go North East need to continuously invest in their double decker fleet for the future, otherwise you're left in a position whereby services can justify an upgrade but there are no suitable vehicles to upgrade them to.
While double decker investment may not seem all too logical at present, it will help out massively in the future.
Hey, it'll not be long until the eldest Citaros in the fleet start leaving the "big boy" services, and start being rolled out into a lesser role! That's what investment of 100 buses does for you.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Michael - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 1:41 pm)Dan wrote I suspect Go North East will make the right decision in the end, and what you've said sounds pretty logical to me (replacing Renowns as opposed to Cadets as I said above, however).
Let's remember that Go North East need to continuously invest in their double decker fleet for the future, otherwise you're left in a position whereby services can justify an upgrade but there are no suitable vehicles to upgrade them to.
While double decker investment may not seem all too logical at present, it will help out massively in the future.
Hey, it'll not be long until the eldest Citaros in the fleet start leaving the "big boy" services, and start being rolled out into a lesser role! That's what investment of 100 buses does for you.
Ye, they sure will, it does seem in the next 2-3 years the older Citaro's will enter a "spare role" within the flee, which is good.
The way GNE are investing in new orders will be have all newish buses by the time 2017 arrives, this of course might be achieved with at least 160 new buses coming in to service over the next 2 years (said 2 years due to it being its 2014 in 2 days time!).
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - tyresmoke - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 1:49 pm)Michael wrote Ye, they sure will, it does seem in the next 2-3 years the older Citaro's will enter a "spare role" within the flee, which is good.
The way GNE are investing in new orders will be have all newish buses by the time 2017 arrives, this of course might be achieved with at least 160 new buses coming in to service over the next 2 years (said 2 years due to it being its 2014 in 2 days time!).
The only issue I can see with this is in 10 years everything will come up for renewal in one go!
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 3:12 pm)tyresmoke wrote The only issue I can see with this is in 10 years everything will come up for renewal in one go!
Not necessarily.
Vehicles of different lengths have different a different shell life span, and the business plan which went with the investment of that batch of vehicles would have covered the costs over that amount of time.
It is obviously quite possible that these vehicles won't even last that length of time in the fleet also! It does seem that Go North East are wanting to reduce their average fleet age.
Ultimately depends how much money the services make which they have been allocated to, and how much money the services make when the vehicles eventually cascade down to other services.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - grandad - 30 Dec 2013
So what chance the Red Kite getting an update any time soon? The omnicities are 7 years old and quite heavily used.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 3:36 pm)grandad wrote So what chance the Red Kite getting an update any time soon? The omnicities are 7 years old and quite heavily used.
Certainly a great deal of potential for it to happen next year, with the amount of vehicles which will become available - if orders pan out as have been suggested by some of our GNE reps?
That would allow the OmniCity vehicles to take more of a 'back role seat' for branded services - services which aren't too demanding.
Of course, we need to bear in mind depot standardisation for cascades too...!
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Malarkey - 30 Dec 2013
[quote='Michael' pid='24255' dateline='1388409066']
With GNE wanting to order 80 buses for 2014/2015.
The Gemini 3 could be on the list of Demo buses for next year.
We go back to Rob's teaser list:
Lime
X66
Laser
Crusader
Washington Street Shuttle
Based on the Current PVR's that makes a total of 60 New Buses, I think if you were to add (Centurion/Fab57/Pulse) which makes up a PVR of 20 then that would give you a Total of 80 New Buses for 2014, Although if I recall the X66 PVR would need an Increase as GNE won't be Purchasing Artics and didn't the Centurion PVR Drop by 2 to enable it to use 2 Deckers due to Scholars Interworking. So even after that I think it'll still be 80 New Buses.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 3:48 pm)Adam Malarkey wrote Based on the Current PVR's that makes a total of 60 New Buses, I think if you were to add (Centurion/Fab57/Pulse) which makes up a PVR of 20 then that would give you a Total of 80 New Buses for 2014, Although if I recall the X66 PVR would need an Increase as GNE won't be Purchasing Artics and didn't the Centurion PVR Drop by 2 to enable it to use 2 Deckers due to Scholars Interworking. So even after that I think it'll still be 80 New Buses.
I can't see "Washington Street Shuttle" getting investment. Cascades in 2015, maybe...
- X66
- Lime
- Crusader
- Laser
- Toon Link
- Fab57
If I recall correctly, that adds up to 80 buses nicely - taking into consideration the additional spare vehicles which will come with investment with PVRs over 8.
The "Centurion" will only ever be worthy of cascades. OmniCitys seem ideal, if you ask me. Didn't I just mention depot standardisation?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Michael - 30 Dec 2013
Not sure on the Street Shuttle myself but the Venture got new buses, which was a surprise, so it might happen.
If the PRV is 60, (for Rob's list) then i'm gonna add a few more to the list (Not all will get them but a few ideas):
FAB 57
Pulse
Highwayman
Loop
The Scania's like it was said earlier look like they are taking a spare role in the fleet. Maybe it's time for a upgrade?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 4:00 pm)Michael wrote Not sure on the Street Shuttle myself but the Venture got new buses, which was a surprise, so it might happen.
If the PRV is 60, then i'm gonna add a few more to the list (Not all will get them but a few ideas):
FAB 57
Pulse
Highwayman
Loop
The Scania's like it was said earlier look like they are taking a spare role in the fleet. Maybe it's time for a upgrade?
Washington Street Shittle - didn't I suggest a few weeks ago that the service was being trialled as a "midi" route, using the Cadets? That has been an upgrade from the "mini" buses previously allocated. If this is successful, are there any other "midi" buses within the fleet that will become available in 2015?
*cough* Depot standardisation *cough*
Fab57, yes - busmanT has already alluded to this order.
Pulse, I doubt it.
Highwayman & Loop - these vehicles were recently fitted with some engine modifications as part of Gateshead council (?) funding. I think they're staying on those services until 2015 at least.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Malarkey - 30 Dec 2013
Just looking at my own Fleetlist here, depending on the Services Changes in Sunderland for the 26/1/14, There be a Huge Difference in PVR on Services in that Area, Which could lead to majority of Deptford Depot's Buses becoming Available, as Currently we have no idea what could go where, but I do think we could see an Early Withdrawal of the Oxford Renowns as a Result of these Changes.
Here is what is Available
22 - Wright Solar - Ex Wheyaye50/FAB56
8 - Scania Omnicities - Ex Cobalt Clipper/Current 9 Allocation
10 - Plaxton President - Ex Pronto X21/ 2 Northern at Deptford
9 - Wright Cadet - Northern at Deptford
4 - Wright Renown - Northern at Deptford
7 - ELC Vykings - Northern at Deptford
Total = 60 Buses - 38 Belonging to Deptford
I excluded the Cobalt Clipper Citaros as we know they are going on the X21, Everything else I would say is up in the Air at the moment as the Changes are Unconfirmed.
Anyone fancy playing a Game of guess the PVR for the Sunderland Services as of 26/1/14?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 4:22 pm)Adam Malarkey wrote I excluded the Cobalt Clipper Citaros as we know they are going on the X21, Everything else I would say is up in the Air at the moment as the Changes are Unconfirmed.
What? Do we?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Malarkey - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 4:25 pm)Dan wrote What? Do we?
Didn't one of the GNE Reps say Last Week they were going to Mercedes to be Repainted Midnight Blue once the Geminis enter Service on the 309/310, In my mind I would say that was Confirmation, Otherwise how else are GNE going to Withdraw the Olympians.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Michael - 30 Dec 2013
My guess would be:
9 - 7 PVR - Every 15 mins between Sunderland Jarrow - 30 mins to North Shields.
29: Every 20 mins - 7 PVR- Doxford Park - City Centre - Castletown - Heworth
39 -Every 20 mins - 5 PVR - Same route as now.
238 - PVR 5-7? - not sure what changes are happening - upped to every 30 mins?
X36 - 4 PVR- Every 30 mins
Giving them all 21-23 PRV from Deptford
---------------------------------
26/26A/36/36A/38/38A/X3- withdrawn
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2013
(30 Dec 2013, 4:29 pm)Adam Malarkey wrote Didn't one of the GNE Reps say Last Week they were going to Mercedes to be Repainted Midnight Blue once the Geminis enter Service on the 309/310, In my mind I would say that was Confirmation, Otherwise how else are GNE going to Withdraw the Olympians.
Didn't Rob suggest otherwise?
(18 Dec 2013, 7:10 am)Rob wrote Are the Cobalt Clipper Mercedes destined for the X21?
Would downgrading the 9 (from an enthusiast's view) allow greater reliability?
Does the X30 and X31 operation require double decker operation?
Is the new operation, 29, to be branded?
(18 Dec 2013, 6:46 pm)Rob wrote Were they ever? Are solid plans ever made that far in advance? Is the suggestion of Mercedes on the X21 just a rumour, or is it fact?