(19 Oct 2023, 7:25 am)RobinHood wrote Internal communications this morning confirming the complete sale of Arriva to I Squared.

"Today I’m pleased to share a significant and exciting announcement about the future of our company. Our shareholder, Deutsche Bahn (DB), has entered into an agreement with a company called I Squared Capital - a global infrastructure manager - to purchase the whole of the Arriva Group."

(19 Oct 2023, 9:04 am)Andreos1 wrote https://www.ft.com/content/ec540389-37eb-46b2-9f08-c4222106cb62

They're planning quite the investment.

(19 Oct 2023, 9:26 am)Michael wrote What does it say?, need to pay to read.

Infrastructure fund I Squared Capital has said it will invest more than €2bn in growing and electrifying the fleet of Arriva after taking control of one of the biggest operators of red London buses and train services in the UK.

The Miami-based infrastructure investment group on Thursday announced a deal to acquire UK-based Arriva, Deutsche Bahn’s international transport business, and expressed interest in further transport deals in Europe.

Financial terms were not disclosed, but the deal is worth about €1.6bn including debt, the FT previously reported.

Mohamed El Gazzar, a senior partner at I Squared Capital, said in an interview that the deal represented a bet on both decarbonising transport and the UK more broadly.
even more on additional growth in rail transport in Germany,” said Levin Holle, Deutsche Bahn’s chief financial officer, in a statement.

Deutsche Bahn had considered a partial sale as early as 2016, having bought Arriva in 2010 for £1.5bn. Arriva has also sold off its operations in some non-core markets in recent years.

Headquartered in Sunderland, Arriva has 35,500 employees and operates rail services, local buses, commuter coaches and trams, transporting 1.5bn rail and bus passengers a year.

The company is best known for its position as one of the largest bus operators in London, where it operates the city’s iconic red double-decker buses for Transport for London.

It also has a significant presence in other parts of the UK bus market, and is responsible for about 15 per cent of the UK passenger rail market, including running trains on the London Overground network, and the CrossCountry and Chiltern Railways franchises.

Among its other European operations, Arriva operates buses in Spain and Italy, and trains in the Netherlands.

The transaction is expected to be completed next year subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by German officials.

(19 Oct 2023, 9:24 am)Storx wrote I might aswell say it before someone else does, wonder if they go for more areas if they would seriously consider taking over GoNorthEast.

It's a complete basket case, as it is, and Arriva has never had a presence in it's home city (which it would gain from doing so).

I seriously wouldn't be surprised if GoAhead want shot of it before long as it's clearly going nowhere under them. Apart from the Coast Road and Peterlee to Sunderland, there's not really much overlap nowadays.

(19 Oct 2023, 9:33 am)Andreos1 wrote Would it get through the Monopolies Commission (or whatever its called these days)?

(19 Oct 2023, 9:33 am)Andreos1 wrote In a nutshell

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(19 Oct 2023, 9:04 am)Andreos1 wrote https://www.ft.com/content/ec540389-37eb-46b2-9f08-c4222106cb62

They're planning quite the investment.

(19 Oct 2023, 9:24 am)Storx wrote I might aswell say it before someone else does, wonder if they go for more areas if they would seriously consider taking over GoNorthEast.

It's a complete basket case, as it is, and Arriva has never had a presence in it's home city (which it would gain from doing so).

I seriously wouldn't be surprised if GoAhead want shot of it before long as it's clearly going nowhere under them. Apart from the Coast Road and Peterlee to Sunderland, there's not really much overlap nowadays.

(19 Oct 2023, 9:33 am)Andreos1 wrote In a nutshell

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Would it get through the Monopolies Commission (or whatever its called these days)?

(19 Oct 2023, 10:29 am)Adrian wrote I'm not convinced. Same firm that were after First Group last year.

These private equity firms tend to not do things for the greater good of the public. We often talk about 'operators' being at the whim of their shareholders, but these firms are on another level. They'll want a return at all costs, so I think we'll see some severe asset stripping.

(19 Oct 2023, 10:46 am)mb134 wrote I'd be a bit more optimistic. 

Realistically, given they also went after First, I think it's clear they want to invest in a public transport company and the opportunity with Arriva was probably appealing given how desperate DB seemed to be to sell. There isn't much left at Arriva to strip, I'd be massively doubtful of them being able to sell parts off individually for more than what they paid for them. 

As far as I can see majority of their investment has been in infrastructure, which from what I understand is much more suited to longer term, consistent returns. Selling parts of Arriva off to make a quick buck doesn't fit that at all.

(19 Oct 2023, 10:56 am)Adrian wrote Maybe it's the impending franchising, as Ambassador suggests? The business is of course more lucrative, if you've got a foothold in the market when a model of guaranteed income comes in.

Manchester are the first, but we know it's extremely likely to be announced in the North East next May, with other MCA regions following suit. Labour, when inevitably elected, have also promised to roll out this power to non-MCA areas.

(19 Oct 2023, 10:56 am)Adrian wrote Maybe it's the impending franchising, as Ambassador suggests? The business is of course more lucrative, if you've got a foothold in the market when a model of guaranteed income comes in.

Manchester are the first, but we know it's extremely likely to be announced in the North East next May, with other MCA regions following suit. Labour, when inevitably elected, have also promised to roll out this power to non-MCA areas.

(19 Oct 2023, 11:35 am)Storx wrote I'd imagine their bigger aim is to spend money and get Arriva lucrative, they bought the thing under value. With some small investment they could turn it around for a profit pretty easily. Not to mention they are a sleeping giant in London, in recent years, where the contracts are very lucrative.

Not to mention they have the scope to go into more rail contracts with Arriva Traincare etc. Something very similar to First. Another very lucrative area.

(19 Oct 2023, 12:00 pm)mb134 wrote In terms of the UK bus business, I would think that would be the appeal given it's guaranteed income if you win the bid. 


I'd say that's probably more of a reason to keep them. For a low amount of money compared to what a successful Arriva would likely cost, they've got a foothold in the European public transport industry which essentially guarantees them consistent long term returns, which fits in with the rest of their investments?

(19 Oct 2023, 9:24 am)Storx wrote I might aswell say it before someone else does, wonder if they go for more areas if they would seriously consider taking over GoNorthEast.

It's a complete basket case, as it is, and Arriva has never had a presence in it's home city (which it would gain from doing so).

I seriously wouldn't be surprised if GoAhead want shot of it before long as it's clearly going nowhere under them. Apart from the Coast Road and Peterlee to Sunderland, there's not really much overlap nowadays.

(11 Nov 2023, 8:48 pm)Metroline1511 wrote Arriva may not have reached Sunderland for some time.  However, I did catch a bus to Sunderland from Darlington in 1998, I think route 21 or X21.

As an aside, Arriva do reach Sunderland through Grand Central Trains.  They also reached Sunderland when they ran the Metro.

(11 Nov 2023, 8:59 pm)Storx wrote Yeah it would've been the X21, that was curtailed at Peterlee a few year back and last year curtailed at Sedgefield at the other end aswell so only Peterlee to Sedgefield now.

The 22 and 23, still run through but they've been reduced from 4 buses per hour down to 2 buses per hour aswell.

Must say I've always found it strange how a transport company who runs buses, was based in a city where it's never really been a main operator. Must be very very rare, I'm struggling to think of any. Stagecoach being Perth and First being Aberdeen just to pick the other big boys.

(11 Nov 2023, 9:03 pm)Andreos1 wrote Continue the way they're going and GAG may be another to add to the list!

(11 Nov 2023, 8:48 pm)Metroline1511 wrote Arriva may not have reached Sunderland for some time.  However, I did catch a bus to Sunderland from Darlington in 1998, I think route 21 or X21.

As an aside, Arriva do reach Sunderland through Grand Central Trains.  They also reached Sunderland when they ran the Metro.

(11 Nov 2023, 9:10 pm)Storx wrote I was behaving and not mentioning them ha.

Wouldn't surprise me if they just ditched Newcastle altogether and move their registered office to the Tory HQ where their HQ is based. Two clowns in one office, probably share tips, as the way this strike is handled is as piss poor as the rail strike.

(11 Nov 2023, 9:03 pm)Andreos1 wrote Continue the way they're going and GAG may be another to add to the list!

(11 Nov 2023, 9:15 pm)Andreos1 wrote I wonder if the decision to keep it in Newcastle, is more of a token, political gesture. 

Similar to Barbour in South Shields or Fishermen's Friends in Fleetwood.

To get it back on thread, maybe that's why Arriva have their office in Sunderland - linking back to the Cowie's legacy.

(11 Nov 2023, 9:12 pm)Jimmi wrote Think it would've been the 213 back then, became the 21 in 2008 as part of the overhaul of services in the Peterlee area whilst the 214 to Middlesbrough became the 21A (Sunderland - Peterlee leg became 31/31A to avoid the use of Tachos at some later stage). It was curtailed in Peterlee in either 2011/12 but was extended to Sunderland again as the X21 in autumn 2014 before becoming the X21 for the whole route shortly after. It stopped serving Sunderland again in October 2019.

(11 Nov 2023, 9:30 pm)Storx wrote Yeah, well and it's always been there to be fair. Why move you're whole team for the sake of it - plus the rent is cheap aswell. I always find it odd that the First HQ is basically still just an office slammed on the side of their main depot in Aberdeen. Not even a nice shiny building in a business park or in the city centre. Suppose could pay for your staff not wasting money on offices in central London or Grey Street.

(11 Nov 2023, 10:02 pm)mb134 wrote It's much like the rest of the Aberdeen operation in that sense, absolutely nothing to shout about. 

I've seen comments from people saying that they'd like First to take over from Arriva (admittedly pre- I Squared purchase), and there'll no doubt be some people wanting them to take over from GNE. Put it this way, if First were to take over from GNE they'd have Streetlites operating the 21 and then cut the frequency to half hourly. They, especially from my experiences of them in Scotland, have absolutely no ability to plan for the future, and seem to make changes with the intent of them failing (with the next set of service changes cutting the service completely).

(11 Nov 2023, 10:18 pm)Storx wrote Yeah agreed, First are awful. They're not called worst group for no reason. Mind there's been improvements in recent years as 10 year ago or so they were in a really really bad place not that there's much bar for that.

Definitely agreed, wouldn't want them anywhere near the North East though, their Stoke operations are pretty awful aswell especially for a poor town which generally means high levels of bus usage. Mind not that Arriva can take a rosette for it either as they've just pulled out of Crewe completely.

Mind GNE have gone there before with the Omnicities in the mid-late 00's, one of the most bonkers decisions to then replace them with ex London stock. Very bizarre how they treat the 21 so badly considering it's probably their flagship route around that period.

The Pulsars at Ashington and Blyth for the 308/X30's was pretty shortsighted in 2009 aswell, which had similar problems.

(11 Nov 2023, 11:08 pm)mb134 wrote There might have been some improvement in some areas, but from what I've witnessed it's been getting worse. Very small sample size of one operating area, but here's the Aberdeen network map from 2017, so just 6 years ago: 

First Aberdeen Network Map April 2017 by Jordan Adam, on Flickr

The 5, 8, 9, 16, 117, and X40 no longer exist. The 1/2 was a consistent B7LA/E500 allocation, the B7LAs are now long gone (partially replaced by some Citaro bendies which have been pretty unreliable) and the E500s are getting replaced by 61 plate E400s... The 1/2 are also consistently allocated single deckers in the evenings, which are totally unsuitable for the routes.

There have been some improvements, such as deckers onto the Dyce routes but given the ones introduced for the 19 are mostly back with Wrights because of capacity issues at the fuelling site, and that the 17/18 ones are helping out on the 1/2 from what I've seen, the benefit of this likely hasn't been fully realised. 

I think with GNE on the 21, you can at least forgive them that they have continually upgraded the fleet since then. The B5LHs and then the StreetDecks were improvements. I would imagine we'd have seen new vehicles again recently if not for Covid, and given the apparent state of those Streetdecks I wouldn't be surprised if that is the next route we see investment in. 

Arriva vehicle capacity is something you'd hope I Squared look at. There are a number of routes which should be allocated deckers on paper, yet either aren't due to availability or in some cases there's a split allocation and there's not much you can do (43/4/5 and X7/8/9). I see Pulsars on the 43/44/45 & X9 every morning with standing loads, same with whenever the 0649 X22 is allocated a Streetlite. 

Outside of those, you look at the 7 at Durham/Darlington, same with the 1 now the X1 has been cut. Wasn't the 6 also a route which needed deckers when converted to Sapphire? In terms of growth, you'd say even the X66/67 would be a logical route to put deckers onto if the growth on there continues - it's certainly more cost effective than increasing the frequency again. 

The amount of times the X93/4 were single deckers this year is laughable and given 7424-6 are still going you'd think there is no plan in place to replace them for next summer yet, where they'll likely make 1 attempt at an X94, die on a hill, spend 2 months VOR, then plod around on the 62 again.

(11 Nov 2023, 11:29 pm)Storx wrote Aye must admit Aberdeen has been on a slippery slope in recent years. Used to be always a really smart fleet 15 year ago or so aswell, was always quite impressed with their fleet. Stagecoach were always equally as impressive up there especially compared to the crap around here at the time.

Agreed with the allocations, Blyth badly needs to be a full DD allocation imo. The SD's on the 306/308 are less than ideal awell and they've been still getting allocated aswell, whether that's official or not but their on daily.

Probably a bit of a debate about most routes at Durham, Ashington, Darlington and Blyth whether they should have full length single deckers. Most routes at Durham it's either too little capacity, or complete overkill.

As far as I'm aware pretty much everything is having problems. I know there's some very comfortable looking buses on the 5/X26/X27 in Darlington aswell when I've been down there and stuff like the 49, 56, 58 etc they're complete overkill.

(11 Nov 2023, 11:36 pm)solsburian wrote Hopefully if/when Blyth gets EVs for the 4X services, that will cascade away the Puslars. I doubt we will see any significant fleet investment, route changes (outside of contracted services and any orders in place) untill the sale to I Squared is completed now.

(11 Nov 2023, 11:29 pm)Storx wrote Aye must admit Aberdeen has been on a slippery slope in recent years. Used to be always a really smart fleet 15 year ago or so aswell, was always quite impressed with their fleet. Stagecoach were always equally as impressive up there especially compared to the crap around here at the time.

Agreed with the allocations, Blyth badly needs to be a full DD allocation imo. The SD's on the 306/308 are less than ideal awell and they've been still getting allocated aswell, whether that's official or not but their on daily.

Probably a bit of a debate about most routes at Durham, Ashington, Darlington and Blyth whether they should have full length single deckers. Most routes at Durham it's either too little capacity, or complete overkill.

As far as I'm aware pretty much everything is having problems. I know there's some very comfortable looking buses on the 5/X26/X27 in Darlington aswell when I've been down there and stuff like the 49, 56, 58 etc they're complete overkill.