(16 Aug 2021, 5:53 pm)Wybus wrote I’m still not sure how GNE know what the demand will be when we continue to come out of lockdown.  Many people have not gone properly back to work in the office, I also expect many were not going out for leisure purposes as much as previously due to being a bit nervous or due to all the general faff it was, but they will do. It all seems too premature to me.

(16 Aug 2021, 7:03 pm)L469 YVK wrote But how did Arriva achieve a profit? Only investment since September 2014 in Northumbria has been 7541-52 and thats it. If Arriva/DB actually replaced the following (based on pre-covid):

- 10x 308 + 1x spare
- 13x X10/X11 + 1x spare
- 10x X15/X18 + 1x spare

That's 36x vehicles and based on a list price of £250,000 (could be more), that's nearly £9M. And........if they spent on the other outlying services too (X7/X8/X9 & X14/X20), that total would increase yet again.

So in short, Arriva have achieved a profit but what's their long term outlook? They're going to need to spend sooner or later and the only way they'll be able to afford to spend will be to reduce PVR's which means cutting services.

GNE do actually have some capacity to grow and funnily enough, Arriva would have big potential with the right investment and strategy going forward.

North Tyneside.........Stagecoach I'd say yes with the 22 but not much bite from Arriva considering GNE's recent investment & changes to the 309/310/311 not forgetting the potential for EV operation if the bid is successful.

(16 Aug 2021, 7:08 pm)Michael wrote I noticed that some of the timetable logo's have changed on the GNE site... so the likes of "Sunderland District Berries" appear for the 2/2A,  "Sunderland District Blue" for the 61 etc

(16 Aug 2021, 6:47 pm)L469 YVK wrote Of course it is but just using it as an example.

GNE could've just carried on as they were and kept fragmented and unprofitable services / networks running that just weren't sustainable in the long term looking at the bigger picture.

Sadly, some customers will lose links but that's the way it is. GNE are a business and they need to sustain themselves going forward in many ways.

(16 Aug 2021, 7:03 pm)L469 YVK wrote That's 36x vehicles and based on a list price of £250,000 (could be more), that's nearly £9M. And........if they spent on the other outlying services too (X7/X8/X9 & X14/X20), that total would increase yet again.

(16 Aug 2021, 7:53 pm)mb134 wrote Aren't buses purchased on finance plans these days?

(16 Aug 2021, 7:53 pm)mb134 wrote Aren't buses purchased on finance plans these days?

(16 Aug 2021, 7:00 pm)N1cholas wrote It is amusing when you see newspaper articles or facebook complaints about services being cut, but when the service being cut carries fresh air all day then somehow 2-300 people sign a petition to keep it running, if only those 2-300 people used the service in the first place it wouldn't get taken away, it simply is use it or loose it

(16 Aug 2021, 7:22 pm)IRHardy wrote There maybe a very good reason why lots of bus routes are changing in early September:

The COVID-19 Bus Services Support Grant (CBSSG) ceases to be paid on 31/08/2021.

It is being replaced by the Bus Recovery and Maintenance Grant (BRMG) but the BRMG will only be of one third of the value of the CBSSG.

The BRMG will run until April 2022 when the Enhanced Partnerships should be in place across England.

Any route that has not doing very well passenger wise now (and which may not have been pre-COVID) will be reviewed by bus company management teams as to whether it is likely to increase in usage in the next few months, if it does not look like it will, then those routes will disappear, as the magic money tree (i.e. the tax payer) that has funded bus routes since March 2020 will be cutting it's funding by two thirds in about 2 weeks time.

(16 Aug 2021, 7:57 pm)big mac wrote Exactly.  You see all these people crawling out of the woodwork when they probably barely use the service that is being cut.  A prime example recently is the furore over the 25 last year when it got rerouted away from the QE Hospital and people kicked off on social media.  GNE compromised and introduced the 925, which has ended up being withdrawn due to low use.  From the amount of people booting off on Facebook you'd have thought it would have been packed every journey.

Sent from my moto g(8) power lite using Tapatalk

(16 Aug 2021, 7:57 pm)MurdnunoC wrote Why let a little fact like that get in the way of his daily "Arriva is shit" rant?

(16 Aug 2021, 7:57 pm)Dan wrote Very uncommon.

They’re usually bought outright and the companies depreciate the value of the bus over 10-15 years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

(16 Aug 2021, 7:35 pm)Storx wrote Investment doesn't affect profits though. It's all done in the balance sheet which will be depreciated over the lifetime of the bus, so it's still the same for the Gemini's which will be still be getting paid off now every year.

It's more about what routes they've got that's why. Arriva serve close towns in the case of SE Northumberland which are ex pit towns / villages and naturally have a lower car usage with no competition at all. It's how they can get away with what they're doing. It's the same with Stagecoach in the West End running MAN buses around. It's the similar down Durham way with Bishop Auckland, Spennymoor, Shildon etc. The routes are also dead close by so you can serve multiple towns / villages enroute to Newcastle without it being a detour Blyth -> Cramlington -> Newcastle or Ashington -> Bedlington -> Newcastle each with their own flows.

Compare that to GNE, they've got Peterlee, North Tyneside, Sunderland and South Tyneside which are all competition hot spots and argubly they have the weaker routes in the areas, Derwentside is a nightmare to serve as you have two large towns then pretty much nothing inbetween with the complication of either serving the Metro Centre or Newcastle but not both as it's too 'slow' but there's money there. Washington and Peterlee are both very high car usage areas. What's left, Gateshead which is a good area and it shows with multiple 15 minute+ services, no doubt it's where most of the money comes from aswell - notice there's been few cuts there over the years and Hexham / Tyne Valley which are both strong areas - also no cuts there.

• Investment does affect net profit as it needs to be paid for and factored in over a number of years. Ideally, a bus will be depreciated more between 1-8 years (or less if more demanding work) before being moved onto a "secondary" route. The VDL Geminis at Blyth on the 308 & X10/X11 should've been replaced around 2018/19 then cascaded accordingly. And the "right" investments along with a well planned network will help improve efficiency and create growth / profit over a longer term.
  
  
• But what about the "next generation" of bus users in SE Northumberland also taking into account the ABTRL? If they keep experiencing a Gemini in limp mode or a sub-standard B7TL deputising or constantly getting chased by the bus behind due to late running, they're going to be more tempted towards alternative modes of transport.  Again, short term vs long term. GNE are actually making an effort to market and make their services attractive rather than the dreary same old.
  
  
• As things stand in Derwentside, GNE have a strong corridor on the X45/X46 and have actually created growth through correct investment and marketing as shown by the upgrade from single to double deck vehicles not forgetting running via the Metrocentre although not a 'de-tour' for most parts of the routes. Likewise, GNE have actually reduced the impact of the X30/X31 & X70/X71/X72 having nothing in between by streamlining the frequency between Sunniside and Newcastle to provide a bus roughly every 10 minutes. In fact, the X30 and soon to be X31 between Sunniside and Newcastle already replaces former parts of the 98 that used to operate until 2015.
  
  
• The Tyne Valley...........now to be fair, GNE already had a stronghold along the Ryton - Newcastle corridor before 2010. However, they have actually grown the 10 (former 602). So half hourly with B10BLEs > every 20 mins with Mercs > every 30 minutes with Volvo B9TLs (and approx every 15 mins to Prudhoe with the 10B). Again in comparison to Arriva, that growth and sustainability came through correct investment and marketing. Would actually be interesting to think how things would've turned out had the deal with Arriva not happened. And then.............came along the X84/X85 in 2013 ironically competing with Arriva's 685 (complained about in the press) and look where that has gone now with X-Lines?
  

(16 Aug 2021, 8:36 pm)L469 YVK wrote

• But what about the "next generation" of bus users in SE Northumberland also taking into account the ABTRL? If they keep experiencing a Gemini in limp mode or a sub-standard B7TL deputising or constantly getting chased by the bus behind due to late running, they're going to be more tempted towards alternative modes of transport.  Again, short term vs long term. 
  

(16 Aug 2021, 8:54 pm)mb134 wrote I'm not sure how every discussion on a GNE thread ends up being about VDL Gemini's on Blyth express work. 

The Blyth and Tyne line, imo, will have sod all impact on the ANE services into Newcastle from Blyth. They're already talking about cutting the Bebside station before the thing gets off the ground, so realistically everyone from Blyth is getting a bus to Newsham anyway - at which point you may as well just stay on it? 

I hate to break it to you, but new vehicles have issues too. E400 MMCs not restarting at stops and whatever is going on with the X1 Streetdecks as two examples - both of which are arguably more noticeable than a VDL being in limp mode (which I've not had for a long time, and even then it wasn't horrendous). Then we get to "a B7TL deputising" - may I point you towards the Omnidekkas on the X21, there were 2 or 3 on there today. 

This post isn't meant to paint ANE as some sort of angelic operator, every company has their flaws and I've been more than critical of ANE on investment in the past, but even if it was it doesn't even begin to balance out the swathes of constant negativity towards them - and remember, as has been pointed out on social media a fair bit recently, folk who work for them do read these posts and I don't imagine it's exactly motivating.

(16 Aug 2021, 6:47 pm)L469 YVK wrote Of course it is but just using it as an example.

GNE could've just carried on as they were and kept fragmented and unprofitable services / networks running that just weren't sustainable in the long term looking at the bigger picture.

Sadly, some customers will lose links but that's the way it is. GNE are a business and they need to sustain themselves going forward in many ways.

(16 Aug 2021, 8:54 pm)mb134 wrote I'm not sure how every discussion on a GNE thread ends up being about VDL Gemini's on Blyth express work. 

(16 Aug 2021, 7:57 pm)MurdnunoC wrote Why let a little fact like that get in the way of his daily "Arriva is shit" rant?

(16 Aug 2021, 8:54 pm)mb134 wrote I'm not sure how every discussion on a GNE thread ends up being about VDL Gemini's on Blyth express work. 

The Blyth and Tyne line, imo, will have sod all impact on the ANE services into Newcastle from Blyth. They're already talking about cutting the Bebside station before the thing gets off the ground, so realistically everyone from Blyth is getting a bus to Newsham anyway - at which point you may as well just stay on it? 

I hate to break it to you, but new vehicles have issues too. E400 MMCs not restarting at stops and whatever is going on with the X1 Streetdecks as two examples - both of which are arguably more noticeable than a VDL being in limp mode (which I've not had for a long time, and even then it wasn't horrendous). Then we get to "a B7TL deputising" - may I point you towards the Omnidekkas on the X21, there were 2 or 3 on there today. 

This post isn't meant to paint ANE as some sort of angelic operator, every company has their flaws and I've been more than critical of ANE on investment in the past, but even if it was it doesn't even begin to balance out the swathes of constant negativity towards them - and remember, as has been pointed out on social media a fair bit recently, folk who work for them do read these posts and I don't imagine it's exactly motivating.

(16 Aug 2021, 8:36 pm)L469 YVK wrote

• Investment does affect net profit as it needs to be paid for and factored in over a number of years. Ideally, a bus will be depreciated more between 1-8 years (or less if more demanding work) before being moved onto a "secondary" route. The VDL Geminis at Blyth on the 308 & X10/X11 should've been replaced around 2018/19 then cascaded accordingly. And the "right" investments along with a well planned network will help improve efficiency and create growth / profit over a longer term.
  
  
• But what about the "next generation" of bus users in SE Northumberland also taking into account the ABTRL? If they keep experiencing a Gemini in limp mode or a sub-standard B7TL deputising or constantly getting chased by the bus behind due to late running, they're going to be more tempted towards alternative modes of transport.  Again, short term vs long term. GNE are actually making an effort to market and make their services attractive rather than the dreary same old.
  
  
• As things stand in Derwentside, GNE have a strong corridor on the X45/X46 and have actually created growth through correct investment and marketing as shown by the upgrade from single to double deck vehicles not forgetting running via the Metrocentre although not a 'de-tour' for most parts of the routes. Likewise, GNE have actually reduced the impact of the X30/X31 & X70/X71/X72 having nothing in between by streamlining the frequency between Sunniside and Newcastle to provide a bus roughly every 10 minutes. In fact, the X30 and soon to be X31 between Sunniside and Newcastle already replaces former parts of the 98 that used to operate until 2015.
  
  
• The Tyne Valley...........now to be fair, GNE already had a stronghold along the Ryton - Newcastle corridor before 2010. However, they have actually grown the 10 (former 602). So half hourly with B10BLEs > every 20 mins with Mercs > every 30 minutes with Volvo B9TLs (and approx every 15 mins to Prudhoe with the 10B). Again in comparison to Arriva, that growth and sustainability came through correct investment and marketing. Would actually be interesting to think how things would've turned out had the deal with Arriva not happened. And then.............came along the X84/X85 in 2013 ironically competing with Arriva's 685 (complained about in the press) and look where that has gone now with X-Lines?
  

• It's 15 years they depreciate buses over (the useful life, I believe it might be 12 years for minibuses - but can't confirm that) so the Gemini's etc at Blyth will still be affecting the P&L. The problem with cascades though is where you cascade them to, as most the SE Northumberland routes are strong for their own reasons. No-one wants to live on the 'cast off' bus route and it's something you have to be careful about. They did get a refurb with MAX around then though which is good enough imo.
  
• Can't argue about that but then it doesn't mean you need to cut services which was the original discussion, I don't think anyone can disagree with improvements but if it was that or an increased frequency then the frequency will always win (unless there's serious reliability issues).
  
• In fairness though even known the X30/X31 are good at what they do, the expressness of them is a big issue aswell for other routes. It's all good if you live in Stanley but they literally serve nothing to Sunniside yet the towns and villages one / two roads across have changes every other week, one now without a service to the Metro Centre, the other finally getting it's Newcastle service back (one improvement not mentioned). Ashington have it a lot better imo with them serving the local villages like Bedlington and Stakeford on the way, then running express say from Sunniside straight into Newcastle, then have one service half hourly dotting around for the Metro Centre (like the 57 or 19 to Cramlington).  If there's demand have an hourly express service from Stanley like the X20 via Gateshead, extending through to Lanchester using the 30 route or something which might improve that route, it's ridiculous that Stanley doesn't have a direct bus to Gateshead imo without going round the world. The X72 is a good move though as it's kind of on that route so credit where it's due.
  
• Can't really fault the Tyne Valley corridor tbh.
  

(16 Aug 2021, 9:18 pm)L469 YVK wrote GNE's X21 funnily enough (I do have flaws with GNE too), I was actually disappointed (although the recent changes reveal why) when they split the original E400MMC order that the X21 wasn't considered. StreetDecks again, I don't personally think they're suited to the X1 and I'd hope that GNE have a succession route for them when better times allow or worst case, replace after 5 years.

(16 Aug 2021, 9:45 pm)streetdeckfan wrote As a passenger, the new StreetDecks are far superior to the E400s, they're more comfortable, feel more spacious and most importantly have head room up stairs.

Mechanically, they seem to have made a lot of changes since the Angel batch so it'll be interesting to see what the reliability is like.
The 16 plates were (and still are) fairly unreliable, but the 67 plates seem to be fairly solid.

(16 Aug 2021, 9:59 pm)Keeiajs wrote Well the 67 plates are G3's, And I must say to go back to the X21 GNE needs to get there head together for that service I understand 6335,6336 being as spares but I do not think there is enough X21 Branded buses for the route and there was 3 omnidekkas on the other day aswell which could not be happening on such as high profile route.

(16 Aug 2021, 10:04 pm)L469 YVK wrote There should be 7x B5TLs (6308-14) with either 6335/36 making up PVR with the other spare.

Again, going back to a level playing field, worst purchase decision ever for the X9/X10 although I don't know how they've coped on the X21? They were used during lockdown 1 with few issues on the 10/10A so perhaps that influenced the allocation as the 10 can be tough between Prudhoe and Hexham.

(16 Aug 2021, 7:17 pm)Keeiajs wrote At the end of the day if GNE can't make it profit they remove the service, use it or lose it, it is simple business 
 and if you don't get that ur stupid I hate to say it however GNE hast to make money they have staff to pay. Not run a bus service which is bleeding money. Simple

(16 Aug 2021, 10:34 pm)Wybus wrote It should be pointed out it isn’t ANE investment, Arriva aren’t investing nationwide at the moment due to the parent company not knowing if they are coming or going. The 306 could be taking a million quid a day and they still wouldn’t be getting any new buses at the moment, it isn’t anything about the performance of ANE on its own.

All of Arriva is in this situation where flagship routes are floundering with increasingly older buses, all kinds of liveries, buses being swapped about to meet clean air zones without actually buying anything new.

(16 Aug 2021, 9:59 pm)Keeiajs wrote Well the 67 plates are G3's, And I must say to go back to the X21 GNE needs to get there head together for that service I understand 6335,6336 being as spares but I do not think there is enough X21 Branded buses for the route and there was 3 omnidekkas on the other day aswell which could not be happening on such as high profile route.

(16 Aug 2021, 10:21 pm)Andreos1 wrote Or... And this is a big ask and one that I keep bringing up...
They operate services that take people to where the actually need to be.

The network is pretty much as it was 30/40/50 years ago when people worked/shopped in town centres and lived on a council estate, on the edge of the town centre.
Fast forward to 2021 and commercial teams still think thats the case. Except it isn't. They're not savvy enough to try something different and spend time reallocating vehicles, spending money at their mates design agency, changing route numbers and reducing fleet sizes, to suit a dwindling market.

Despite there being a ripe new market, sitting there and being ignored. 
They're shouting. They're telling the operators what they need, they're sitting in queues of traffic (holding up buses heading in a different direction) and they're being ignored.
Use it or lose it threats aren't going to work, when nobody uses it in the first place