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+--- Thread: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions (/showthread.php?tid=784)
RE: Go North East: 2014 Order Predictions - Michael - 20 Dec 2014
Any news on orders?
RE: Go North East: 2014 Order Predictions - Dan - 20 Dec 2014
(20 Dec 2014, 2:10 pm)Michael wrote Any news on orders?
Not so much news, but a post to inform which will hopefully ease any confusion...
When we think of a year, a lot of us will think 2014 refers to the normal calendar year of January 2014 - December 2014. Businesses, such as Go North East, also have a financial calendar year. A financial year can start on any given day of the normal calendar year, and Go-Ahead Group's financial year ends on June 27th 2015. Go North East's orders can be confirmed at any point during their financial year, though they will try to confirm them with enough time prior to the end of the financial year so that all vehicles enter service prior to the new financial year beginning.
I can only imagine that some users may be unaware of this, accounting for a '2015 Order Predictions' thread being created... I'm more than happy for a '2015 Order Predictions' thread to be created when Go North East's next financial year begins: June 28th 2015!
RE: Go North East: 2014 Order Predictions - citaro5284 - 20 Dec 2014
(20 Dec 2014, 2:10 pm)Michael wrote Any news on orders?
Go North East: 2014 Order Predictions - R852 PRG - 20 Dec 2014
(20 Dec 2014, 3:06 pm)citaro5284 wrote
Hmm.....c'mon, SPIT IT OUT!
RE: Go North East: 2014 Order Predictions - Diamond One - 20 Dec 2014
(20 Dec 2014, 3:08 pm)MarcTheA4 wrote Hmm.....c'mon, SPIT IT OUT!
thats actually a song by the band Slipknot warning the band is scary and the song does contain strong language but i agree somebody should spill the beans
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - L469 YVK - 29 Dec 2014
What vehicle types do you folk think GNE will go with? I think they could go for the following:
I personally think Optare Versa, Optare Metrodecker, Mercedes Citaro and if needed, Scania E400 MMC but I can't see the latter of the 4 happening until at least 2016 / 2017.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2014
(29 Dec 2014, 11:42 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote What vehicle types do you folk think GNE will go with? I think they could go for the following:
I personally think Optare Versa, Optare Metrodecker, Mercedes Citaro and if needed, Scania E400 MMC but I can't see the latter of the 4 happening until at least 2016 / 2017.
Surely this depends on the services that will receive investment?
Although Andreos1's chain of newsagents has seamlessly replaced its cheaper less popular lightweight bags with more expensive heavyweight bags recently, Go North East would find it difficult to justify capital expenditure into such expensive vehicles on a service like the X66 when:
a) no passenger growth is expected with the investment into the service and the only increased profit levels will come from reduced running costs
b) the service does not have a particularly demanding nature
Full size single deckers will be chosen, and these full size single deckers will either be Optare Versas or Wright Streetlites (the latter of which has by far the best fuel economy - so I know what I'd put my money on). These buses will have the exact same expected lifespan as a Mercedes Citaro would (15 years), meaning that it's easier for Go North East to justify the capital expenditure for these buses.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Michael - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 9:31 am)Dan wrote Surely this depends on the services that will receive investment?
Although Andreos1's chain of newsagents has seamlessly replaced its cheaper less popular lightweight bags with more expensive heavyweight bags recently, Go North East would find it difficult to justify capital expenditure into such expensive vehicles on a service like the X66 when:
a) no passenger growth is expected with the investment into the service and the only increased profit levels will come from reduced running costs
b) the service does not have a particularly demanding nature
Full size single deckers will be chosen, and these full size single deckers will either be Optare Versas or Wright Streetlites (the latter of which has by far the best fuel economy - so I know what I'd put my money on). These buses will have the exact same expected lifespan as a Mercedes Citaro would (15 years), meaning that it's easier for Go North East to justify the capital expenditure for these buses.
GNE getting no deckers then?
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 9:41 am)Michael wrote GNE getting no deckers then?
That last paragraph was just in relation to the X66 rather than every service receiving investment this year.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Michael - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 9:42 am)Dan wrote That last paragraph was just in relation to the X66 rather than every service receiving investment this year.
Ah right!
Which kind/style of double deckers do u think GNE will have ordered?
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - L469 YVK - 30 Dec 2014
I think that GNE will go with the Metro Decker for most double deck routes if they order Versas or they could go for B5TLs if they order Streetlites. I personally think that GNE would benefit from ADL for all vehicle sizes.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - L469 YVK - 30 Dec 2014
Judging by things, I'd say that the Toon Link and Crusader will get double decks and I think the Prince Bishops might. I don't know about the Pronto though because even though it needs new buses, there are no proven Heavyweight vehicles on the market yet. I still think the Red Arrows is a possibility though.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Michael - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 10:21 am)DaveyBowyer wrote Judging by things, I'd say that the Toon Link and Crusader will get double decks and I think the Prince Bishops might. I don't know about the Pronto though because even though it needs new buses, there are no proven Heavyweight vehicles on the market yet. I still think the Red Arrows is a possibility though.
Crusader - Maybe
Pronto - Maybe
ToonLink - Maybe
Red Arrows - Don't think they'll update them so early.
This could happen to the Crusader Citaro's if it gets double deckers:
1. Paint 3 for Laser to make the 35/36 fully Citaro (means 6 scania's will now be free due to the PVR also dropping by 3)
2. Paint 5 more for the Silver Arrows (even though Silver, i would think GNE would want them cleaned up) - Due a increase of 5.
That leaves 6 Crusader Citaro's left, Probables to a spare role at different depots for services which use Citaro's
Scania's moving to Prince Bishops which requires 20 PVR when changes happen... including 2 currently in a spare role atm.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Drifter60 - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 12:51 pm)Michael wrote Crusader - Maybe
Pronto - Maybe
ToonLink - Maybe
Red Arrows - Don't think they'll update them so early.
This could happen to the Crusader Citaro's if it gets double deckers:
1. Paint 3 for Laser to make the 35/36 fully Citaro - Puts the Scania's in to a spare role
2. Paint 5 more for the Silver Arrows (even though Silver, i would think GNE would want them cleaned up)
That leaves 6 Crusader Citaro's left, Probables to a spare role at different depots for services which use Citaro's
Or use the spares to upgrade something like Fab57. Unless of course they get investment anyways, but cascades allows upgrades to happen if brand new vehicles aren't justified.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Michael - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 12:54 pm)Drifter60 wrote Or use the spares to upgrade something like Fab57. Unless of course they get investment anyways, but cascades allows upgrades to happen if brand new vehicles aren't justified.
I'm not sure on passenger numbers for the FAB 57 so i'm not sure if it would justify citaro's, never know though!
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Tom - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 12:59 pm)Michael wrote I'm not sure on passenger numbers for the FAB 57 so i'm not sure if it would justify citaro's, never know though!
Versas would be ideal.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Malarkey - 30 Dec 2014
What about 10.8m Optare Metrocitys
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 1:10 pm)Malarkey wrote What about 10.8m Optare Metrocitys
Pointless introducing something new if Versas could do the job.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Kuyoyo - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 1:10 pm)Dan wrote Pointless introducing something new if Versas could do the job.
If Go North East are prepared to pay the extra for the Versa - considering Optare are now marketing the Versa as their high-spec model with the MetroCity replacing it as the standard model.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Malarkey - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 1:10 pm)Dan wrote Pointless introducing something new if Versas could do the job.
To be honest from looking at the Optare Website the only difference between the two is Length.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - citaro5284 - 30 Dec 2014
I am led to believe that some new vehicles will be getting delivered between March and May.
As to the make, model, livery and brand.....let the guessing commence
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Dan - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 7:47 pm)citaro5284 wrote I am led to believe that some new vehicles will be getting delivered between March and May.
As to the make, model, livery and brand.....let the guessing commence
Is this you teasing again?!
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - R852 PRG - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 7:47 pm)citaro5284 wrote I am led to believe that some new vehicles will be getting delivered between March and May.
As to the make, model, livery and brand.....let the guessing commence
Guys, this bloke is clearly a spy. Get the info. Then terminate him.
Citaro, why are you such a tease...?
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - L469 YVK - 30 Dec 2014
I'd probably say it will consist of either E400 MMCs, B5TLs, or Metrodeckers if any double deck orders take place. For single decks, I would most likely say it will consist of Versas and Mercs.
Do you think GNE will acquire an E400 MMC demonstrator that can be properly used? If they did, I would like to see it be tried on the Toon Link and Crusader; and a performance comparison on the X1 and either the TEN, Cobalt Clipper or Fab 56.
Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - dodsy - 30 Dec 2014
Is it true that the Gemini 2 hybrids from the 21 are moving onto the crusader?
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Michael - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 10:40 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote I'd probably say it will consist of either E400 MMCs, B5TLs, or Metrodeckers if any double deck orders take place. For single decks, I would most likely say it will consist of Versas and Mercs.
Do you think GNE will acquire an E400 MMC demonstrator that can be properly used? If they did, I would like to see it be tried on the Toon Link and Crusader; and a performance comparison on the X1 and either the TEN, Cobalt Clipper or Fab 56.
I don't think any citaro's will of being ordered, the current models are euro 6 and are very expensive, this why orders will be versa or streetlite...well thats what i think anyway, I'm also sure Dan has said that a few times....
I do hope we get a few demos in the new year.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - L469 YVK - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 10:46 pm)dodsy wrote Is it true that the Gemini 2 hybrids from the 21 are moving onto the crusader?
Very unlikely unless they're struggling really badly becuase if they move them before 5 year under GBF rules, GNE will have to pay penalty. Mind you though, it could also be argued about 7801 - 7810 running around on the Quorum and Blyth Expresses alot away from the 308 that they were funded for.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Bus_User - 30 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 12:59 pm)Michael wrote I'm not sure on passenger numbers for the FAB 57 so i'm not sure if it would justify citaro's, never know though!
From what I see, the 57 gets decent loadings in peak times in particular, especally between Leam Lane and Gateshead so either using solars or the Citaro as you suggest would be a good choice imo.
The 27 for double deckers? No way, I have never seen the 27 ever full from what I seen, never mind justifying getting a double decker, would be a waste of investment in my eyes. The only time this service ever get busy is if theres a late running service, between Heworth and Newcastle, barely anyone gets on and off and in the most part along that route, it is competing with the Metro and when that is running on time, there is ever only going to be one winner. Maybe they should think of running the 27 through Felling Square again like they used too?
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - L469 YVK - 31 Dec 2014
I do think that GNE should consider ADL for many reasons though:
- Commonality.
- Enviro 200MMC now available as a lightweight full size single deck delivering the same benefits as the Streetlite Max and full size Versa.
- More fuel efficient.
- Better flexibility.
- Cheaper purchasing costs.
- Good warranties.
- ADL E400MMC (Cummins) seems a modern and efficient design and would be a good candidate for future double deck orders with the exception of the Red Arrows, TTX, Pronto and TEN. Would be great for the Angel when the B5s have had it.
- Heavyweight Scania chassis options available for Enviro 300 and Enviro 400MMC where needed for extra power and for the former, it would sort of fit in well particularly where the Omnicities are concerned.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions - Dan - 31 Dec 2014
(30 Dec 2014, 11:50 pm)Bus_User wrote From what I see, the 57 gets decent loadings in peak times in particular, especally between Leam Lane and Gateshead so either using solars or the Citaro as you suggest would be a good choice imo.
The 27 for double deckers? No way, I have never seen the 27 ever full from what I seen, never mind justifying getting a double decker, would be a waste of investment in my eyes. The only time this service ever get busy is if theres a late running service, between Heworth and Newcastle, barely anyone gets on and off and in the most part along that route, it is competing with the Metro and when that is running on time, there is ever only going to be one winner. Maybe they should think of running the 27 through Felling Square again like they used too?
When the time comes for replacement (probably in the 2015/16 financial year), Versas or Streetlites will do the job on the 57. It's not a long demanding route, and the Versas have proven themselves on the banks on the route of the 58. There are other services in the region which are more demanding which could benefit from cascaded or newer Mercedes Citaros.
Behind the Angel and Fab56, the Crusader carries some of the most passengers in the region! It must be said that this does not dictate profit levels: a large proportion of the Crusader's passengers are Concessionary Pass holders. I have said this before and I will say it again - Go North East is very good at seeing the future potential in services being upgraded. If there is potential for growth on top of what there is at present, I have absolutely no doubt that double deckers will be of preference. Whether they are cascaded from the Angel or are brand new remains to be seen. Allocating double deckers to the 27 service will be very helpful to Riverside when the Metros are not operational between Newcastle/Gateshead and Heworth (and beyond on the yellow line) too. When tickets are accepted on the 27 service, the Mercs have to be taken off and replaced by Volvo B7 double decks straight away. Allocating them full time means you don't have that struggle!