(06 Jan 2022, 2:49 am)Bazza wrote Opinions and predictions please!

Stagecoach: the first of the big three to show their hand with the planned merger with, or take over by (depends on your point of view) National Express. Will this development have any effect on local Stagecoach services?  One consequence of this will be the National Express contracts once ran by GNE.   Will these now be ran by Stagecoach?  What will happen to the Megabus services ran out of the northeast Stagecoach depots? The pandemic surely pushed NX into expanding their reach into local bus services, these at least had government support, whereas the coaching business didn’t get anything like that sort of help. 

Arriva: obvious that DB are desperate to divest themselves of Arriva UK Bus.  They’ve recently closed their company pension scheme, which to me is to make the company as a whole a more attractive proposition to any potential buyer. Was Trandevs acquisition of Yorkshire Tiger a precursor to a full or partial takeover of the business? Or are there other potential buyers on the horizon?

GNE: until recently probably seen as the most secure of the big 3. However, the pandemic has played havoc with any plans they had two years ago and it is almost a reset. There’s also the small problem that the Go Ahead Group currently has regarding their rail franchises, share trading has been suspended in the last couple of days. It was recently reported that the First Group, having sold operations in North America, we’re looking to refocus on their UK bus operations and that Go Ahead were on their radar, how likely is this?

It has been reported that the ‘levelling up’ agenda and the possibility of more investment in bus services and public transport (think BSIP) may make bus companies more attractive investments than they have been for many years, or is that just pie in the sky?

(06 Jan 2022, 2:49 am)Bazza wrote Opinions and predictions please!

Stagecoach: the first of the big three to show their hand with the planned merger with, or take over by (depends on your point of view) National Express. Will this development have any effect on local Stagecoach services?  One consequence of this will be the National Express contracts once ran by GNE.   Will these now be ran by Stagecoach?  What will happen to the Megabus services ran out of the northeast Stagecoach depots? The pandemic surely pushed NX into expanding their reach into local bus services, these at least had government support, whereas the coaching business didn’t get anything like that sort of help. 

Arriva: obvious that DB are desperate to divest themselves of Arriva UK Bus.  They’ve recently closed their company pension scheme, which to me is to make the company as a whole a more attractive proposition to any potential buyer. Was Trandevs acquisition of Yorkshire Tiger a precursor to a full or partial takeover of the business? Or are there other potential buyers on the horizon?

GNE: until recently probably seen as the most secure of the big 3. However, the pandemic has played havoc with any plans they had two years ago and it is almost a reset. There’s also the small problem that the Go Ahead Group currently has regarding their rail franchises, share trading has been suspended in the last couple of days. It was recently reported that the First Group, having sold operations in North America, we’re looking to refocus on their UK bus operations and that Go Ahead were on their radar, how likely is this?

It has been reported that the ‘levelling up’ agenda and the possibility of more investment in bus services and public transport (think BSIP) may make bus companies more attractive investments than they have been for many years, or is that just pie in the sky?

(06 Jan 2022, 2:49 am)Bazza wrote Opinions and predictions please!

Stagecoach: the first of the big three to show their hand with the planned merger with, or take over by (depends on your point of view) National Express. Will this development have any effect on local Stagecoach services?  One consequence of this will be the National Express contracts once ran by GNE.   Will these now be ran by Stagecoach?  What will happen to the Megabus services ran out of the northeast Stagecoach depots? The pandemic surely pushed NX into expanding their reach into local bus services, these at least had government support, whereas the coaching business didn’t get anything like that sort of help. 

Arriva: obvious that DB are desperate to divest themselves of Arriva UK Bus.  They’ve recently closed their company pension scheme, which to me is to make the company as a whole a more attractive proposition to any potential buyer. Was Trandevs acquisition of Yorkshire Tiger a precursor to a full or partial takeover of the business? Or are there other potential buyers on the horizon?

GNE: until recently probably seen as the most secure of the big 3. However, the pandemic has played havoc with any plans they had two years ago and it is almost a reset. There’s also the small problem that the Go Ahead Group currently has regarding their rail franchises, share trading has been suspended in the last couple of days. It was recently reported that the First Group, having sold operations in North America, we’re looking to refocus on their UK bus operations and that Go Ahead were on their radar, how likely is this?

It has been reported that the ‘levelling up’ agenda and the possibility of more investment in bus services and public transport (think BSIP) may make bus companies more attractive investments than they have been for many years, or is that just pie in the sky?

(06 Jan 2022, 12:22 pm)Chris 1 wrote Interesting what peoples perceptions are of the performance of the big 3.  I'm with Storx on this one, I think it's mentioned elsewhere on the forum that GNE are the least profitable of the big 3.

(06 Jan 2022, 1:09 pm)streetdeckfan wrote It's not all about how much profit they're making though, Arriva may be making more money, but they're also not making any investments into the services. So when the time comes to update the fleet they're going to have to spend big, and I'd guess very little of that profit has been staying within ANE for them to make those investments. GNE on the other hand, has been continually making investments in the fleet

Looking at Arriva County Durham's accounts, which went up yesterday, they went from making a gross profit of £6.2m to a loss of £4.5m, although due to government grants of £11m, they still made a profit of £1.3m, compared to GNE's overall loss of £4.6m since it seems GNE only received around £4.5m in government grants. 
I just skimmed them so feel free to double check!

(06 Jan 2022, 7:48 am)54APhotography wrote Megabus is now majority owned ComfortDelGro, with SocttishCityLink and some other coach operations. National Express coaches shouldn't change in terms of outsourcing, but the fine detail is to come.

Arriva have been on the market for three years, DB want rid of all of it, Bus, Trains the whole shooting match. The big problem is valuation. While it may look like an attractive proposition to Transdev in enthusiast eyes, it isn't. The fleet is ageing and needs massive investment, very possibly more in £s than the actual worth of the shares. Running a company down to the bone is never a good way of selling, despite that being ever so often the case.

First have given up hopes of selling the British bus operation, they made a huge loss in America, they are probably not in a strong enough financial situation to make a bid for a company as big as Go Ahead, and what value to Go Ahead is a merger? Outside of London their operations have been hugely impacted by Covid and pressure over various ULEZ'.

(06 Jan 2022, 1:30 pm)Chris 1 wrote True - it's not, but the profitability of any business will always determine the future of it.

In terms of ANE, again I agree that the fleet is in need of investment and that most of the profit generated will be squirrelled back off to Germany.  At some point that will change though, the lack of investment and general interest in Arriva by DB is purely because they want to sell and don't want spend.  With investment and interest, I personally see potential in large parts of ANE.

Liquidity risk

The company voluntarily participates in a group cash pooling arrangement operated by its ultimate parent, Deutsche Bahn AG ('DB'). This is a long-standing arrangement operated by DB to manage the liquidity needs of DB group companies, and the company has been a party to this arrangement for several years. Under the arrangement substantially all the company's cash balances are swept into the group cash pool at the end of each business day. The company has a positive cash pooling balance at the balance sheet date, and the directors expect the company's pooled cash balance to remain positive over the going concern assessment period.
The company is currently dependent on daily access to its funds in the cash pool for the funds required to operate and to support the going concern assumption. As the terms of the company's agreement with DB do not provide explicit rights for immediate access to these funds on request, this gives rise to a potential liquidity risk that funds may not be available as required to settle liabilities during the period of 12 months from the date of approval of the financial statements, and the directors acknowledge that this indicates the existence of a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern. However, the directors consider this risk to be highly improbable, as such action would contradict internal group policies and would be inconsistent with the past practice.

(06 Jan 2022, 2:41 pm)streetdeckfan wrote Reading a bit further into the accounts, it seems like that is the case. While I'm no accountant, it looks like at the end of each day all money is sent back to DB, and Arriva have to ask nicely to use any of it.

(06 Jan 2022, 2:41 pm)streetdeckfan wrote Reading a bit further into the accounts, it seems like that is the case. While I'm no accountant, it looks like at the end of each day all money is sent back to DB, and Arriva have to ask nicely to use any of it.

(06 Jan 2022, 1:09 pm)streetdeckfan wrote It's not all about how much profit they're making though, Arriva may be making more money, but they're also not making any investments into the services. So when the time comes to update the fleet they're going to have to spend big, and I'd guess very little of that profit has been staying within ANE for them to make those investments. GNE on the other hand, has been continually making investments in the fleet

Looking at Arriva County Durham's accounts, which went up yesterday, they went from making a gross profit of £6.2m to a loss of £4.5m, although due to government grants of £11m, they still made a profit of £1.3m, compared to GNE's overall loss of £4.6m since it seems GNE only received around £4.5m in government grants. 
I just skimmed them so feel free to double check!

(06 Jan 2022, 6:46 pm)Malarkey wrote I think the Big Three need to take a look at what has just happened down in Oxford where they had mass cuts in service due to large parts being duplicated by Stagecoach Oxfordshire and Oxford Bus Company  - https://www.oxfordbus.co.uk/network-review

(06 Jan 2022, 7:53 pm)Dan wrote This is already planned for later this year. See recent discussion elsewhere on the forum regarding the BSIP/EP.

(06 Jan 2022, 6:46 pm)Malarkey wrote I think the Big Three need to take a look at what has just happened down in Oxford where they had mass cuts in service due to large parts being duplicated by Stagecoach Oxfordshire and Oxford Bus Company  - https://www.oxfordbus.co.uk/network-review

(06 Jan 2022, 2:07 pm)Adrian wrote I'm interested to see how the ComfortDelGro deal works out. The press release was that CDG would be take over ownership, marketing, retail and customer service activities of Megabus (and Falcon), but we know that the vehicles themselves are owned and maintained by the various Stagecoach subsidiaries, operated for Megabus likely through some kind of transfer pricing arrangement. I can't see that changing in the first few years, as CDG still need those buses on the road and running to have a business, but it creates quite an odd situation.

You'd have the second largest coach operator outsourcing work to the largest coach operator, who then outsource their own coaching work to other operators. It also gives them a massive ability to influence the cost of coach travel.

In my opinion, there'll have to be changes somewhere down the line, likely with CDG moving to moving to a similar position as NX and using multiple contractors to deliver Megabus services, but it remains to be seen.

Couldn't agree more re: your Arriva comments. No one in their right mind would purchase the Arriva UK bus operation as a whole, unless the sole purpose was to asset strip it. The more likely result is individual depots or areas being sold, where it makes operational sense for another operator to purchase that work.

Go North West in Manchester is a good example and perhaps also good foresight, as it's given Go Ahead a base to operate out of and win work under the incoming regulated network there.

(06 Jan 2022, 7:48 am)54APhotography wrote Megabus is now majority owned ComfortDelGro, with SocttishCityLink and some other coach operations. National Express coaches shouldn't change in terms of outsourcing, but the fine detail is to come.

(06 Jan 2022, 7:48 am)54APhotograph wrote Arriva have been on the market for three years, DB want rid of all of it, Bus, Trains the whole shooting match. The big problem is valuation. While it may look like an attractive proposition to Transdev in enthusiast eyes, it isn't. The fleet is ageing and needs massive investment, very possibly more in £s than the actual worth of the shares. Running a company down to the bone is never a good way of selling, despite that being ever so often the case.

(09 Jan 2022, 10:09 pm)OrangeArrow49 wrote Are there going to be any changes from the Stagecoach/National Express merger?

Arriva isn't really much use as they only have the 553 to Wallsend and no Metrocentre service. Be good to see investment and rebranding  under new ownership.

Go North East isn't doing very well, repaints and rebrands, upgrades and downgrades, it's crazy.

(09 Jan 2022, 10:27 pm)peter wrote Is the success of operators in the region determined by serving Wallsend and the Metrocentre?

(09 Jan 2022, 10:27 pm)peter wrote Is the success of operators in the region determined by serving Wallsend and the Metrocentre?

(09 Jan 2022, 11:27 pm)OrangeArrow49 wrote I just meant they are no use on their own as they don't serve 2 key areas (despite having a Gateshead service and North Tyneside services) the 553 is a good start for a Wallsend service and they could run a service via Metrocentre.

(09 Jan 2022, 11:42 pm)mb134 wrote Eh? 

First off, I'd hardly define the MetroCentre as a key area in the current climate. 

Second, by that logic Stagecoach are screwed because they don't serve any of Northumberland or Durham, and GNE have no chance due to only having one service to the mighty Kingston Park.

(06 Jan 2022, 3:59 am)streetdeckfan wrote

It obviously must be cheaper for them to outsource the running of the NatEx services or they would have already been running them by themselves. I can't imagine it being immensely profitable for GNE?

As far as i am aware the NX unit based out of CLS is the most profitable unit at the depot since the unit has been scaled back massively since lockdown, Not many vehicles and drivers anymore also with the core routes running now i.e 426/133/172 and very little in the ways of delays or cancellations due to vehicles not being available(quite common pre-lockdown), also with the unit receiving a few awards from NX since services came back in 2021 I personally can’t see GNE losing any contract with NX anytime soon.

(09 Jan 2022, 11:51 pm)OrangeArrow49 wrote Hence why I travel GNE. 


My point was serving part (Gateshead and North Tyneside) and Metrocentre and Wallsend make sense within that network.

Arriva running a service to Wallsend more regularly and serving Metrocentre, I would probably use Arriva sometimes for Tynemouth, North Shields, Whitley Bay, Killingworth, Wallsend, Metrocentre, Gateshead, Gosforth and Fenham etc.