(16 Nov 2022, 7:57 pm)V514DFT wrote I see the 55 being canned personally, and nexus having to step in to source some kind of replacement, i see the 54 going hourly, 51 staying the same, which means you could potentially interwork the 51 and 54, amd the 52 and 53 remain interworking at Cramlington, i also see the 53 staying hourly to North Shields, but the short 53 being extended from Palmersville to the Cobalt, this of course is my personal opinion

(16 Nov 2022, 9:50 pm)L469 YVK wrote If Arriva kept something in Newcastle going on a permanent basis, it would make sense keeping the 47 and 51/52/53/54/55

But logistically, why would they want the hassle of keeping them out of Blyth & Ashington? When they can have a simplifed fleet consisting 3x decker types & StreetLites and immediately sort driver shortage issues out.

Looking at all the additional resources needed for the sake of a few break even or just above break even routes, it all adds up. Not forgetting that the Pulsars released will come in handy for other areas too including Durham & Tees.

If anything, the only reason Arriva have perhaps held on as if they dropped the routes in question before the Jesmond closedown, it would leave Nexus completely in trouble having to plug the gap. But knowing what resources will be available going forward (drop them and driver numbers will be correct for Blyth & Ashington), at least a controlled wind-down and the opportunity for Nexus to put a proper tender together would be the right approach.

(16 Nov 2022, 10:26 pm)Storx wrote It's not that far from Blyth to Cramlington though, it's no further than some of Stockton's routes based at Middlesbrough for example or most of Redcar's routes.

They don't need anymore Pulsar's. There's already about 5 09 plates in a spare role as they've got nothing to do with them, some at Stockton and Redcar currently.

You're ignoring one big thing here and that's the effect it will have on current services. The 52 might not be the busiest route in the world just to pick one, but 10 of the semi frequent passengers might be people with hospital appointments at the Freeman who use the X10 twice a week aswell. Take away that hospital appointment and they end up driving there then why bother using the X10 and it will happen. Some of the obvious ones are below.

Cramlington to Newcastle, Blyth, Morpeth, Ashington, Killingworth, Freeman, North Shields, Benton, Four Lane Ends
Whitley Bay to Newcastle, Blyth, Cramlington, North Shields, Killingworth, Cobalt, Benton, Forest Hall, Shiremoor, Gosforth
North Shields to Newcastle, Whitley Bay, Cramlington, Killingworth, Cobalt, Forest Hall, Shiremoor, Benton


Not everyone wants to go to Newcastle (believe it or not). The 52 and 53 are needed in particular. The 51, 54 and 55 are more questionable and I wouldn't be surprised to see changes at some point on those 3 but they're needed in some form and the 3 which are likely struggling the worst hence the hard cuts.

The 43(too many buses)/X10/X11 duplications and 52/X8 duplications are the bigger problems imo and having Blyth running the 43 when Morpeth is already a hub where it serves for Ashington doesn't make sense either so wouldn't be surprised to see a change there either.

(16 Nov 2022, 10:51 pm)L469 YVK wrote It's not to say that the 52 and 53 are bad routes. But with Arriva's business strategy and a focus on Northumberland, can they viably keep the services going taking everything into account when another operator (SCNE, GNE, GCT etc) would be in a better place to pick up a tender with some commercial risk (like the 19 and 317) from Nexus.

(16 Nov 2022, 7:57 pm)V514DFT wrote I see the 55 being canned personally, and nexus having to step in to source some kind of replacement, i see the 54 going hourly, 51 staying the same, which means you could potentially interwork the 51 and 54, amd the 52 and 53 remain interworking at Cramlington, i also see the 53 staying hourly to North Shields, but the short 53 being extended from Palmersville to the Cobalt, this of course is my personal opinion

(17 Nov 2022, 8:38 am)GNE6312 wrote If the 55 was canned would there really be any need for a replacement when there's the metro from Haymarket to palmersville and 63 from Newcastle to FLE/Forest Hall as I would have not  replace it and rather informed people to use said alternatives.

(16 Nov 2022, 11:49 pm)Storx wrote The problem is the 52 and 53 are Northumberland routes, the main links are all around linking Cramlington and Shiremoor / Whitley Bay which are also strong Arriva areas which they can't just ignore. Burradon and Dudley are also Arriva areas so letting other's in those areas isn't in their best interests.

It's why the 46 has been dropped instantly as it really didn't impact anyone in their core areas. The 54 is the only route which is a bit of an odd one out nowadays since the dropping of the 355/356 years ago. 51 being the main service across Earsdon / Shiremoor and that area - similar issues with the 57/57A.

One thing which wouldn't surprise me too much is the 51 and 55 being merged and the short 53 and 55 being merged.

So you'd have something like these hourly

R1: 55 from Newcastle to Palmersville, direct to Holystone, 51 to Whitley Bay
R2: 55 from Newcastle to Palmersville, 53 to Cramlington
R3: 53 from Cramlington to North Shields

Potentially might see aswell:

R4: 54 from Newcastle to Cobalt, 53 to North Shields

R1/R2: Every 30 Minutes, Palmersville to Newcastle
R2/R3: Every 30 Minutes, Palmersville to Cramlington
R3/R4: Every 30 Minutes, Cobalt to North Shields

Rest of the 51 binned off as Wiltshire Drive is GNE land which they binned off. Would help with everything linking back to Cramlington if you threw the 52 in the mix aswell and open some new links with the 55 and keep the core bits still every 30 minutes. Realistically there's probably few people travelling end to end on the 53 for example.

The short 53 sitting at the end of the 55 isn't a co-incidence imo.

(17 Nov 2022, 8:57 pm)L469 YVK wrote The whole logistics though. So........

- Dead mileage

- Euro 6 - Longer term vehicle maintenance, support costs and replacements

- Recruitment costs to plug driver gap

- More varied fleet to support

- Could potentially lose evening & Sunday work on mentioned routes

Not forgetting the opportunity to get rid of all single deck and minibus types with just StreetLites left to cover the 1/2/57/57A and the cost of running a StreetLite over a Solo won't be much more and cheaper than a Pulsar.

Then down the line if Blyth got 17x new vehicles for the X7/X9/X10/X11, that would see off all the 57 reg E400s and a good chunk of the 59 reg Geminis.

(17 Nov 2022, 9:44 pm)mb134 wrote The dead mileage really isn't that big of an issue. Ashington or Blyth to Cramlington is no different from travelling dead from Jesmond, and the dead runs to Haymarket are no different to the previous dead runs from Jesmond to Morpeth/Ashington/Bebside/Hexham etc. I imagine they'll also look into eliminating some dead runs by adding extra peak journeys where appropriate. 

- Not just the dead runs, but also remote reliefs that need taking into account.

Euro 6 is not an issue, bar the small number of minibuses operated plus 7515-7 (which could potentially be cascaded once the 685 operation ends). 

- So how will the minibus issue be tackled? What will replace the Pulsars longer term bearing in mind that the 47 and 50's are borderline or just above at best?

Recruitment is needed anyway, and always will be. No business that wants to be successful is going to kill off swathes of profitable work just because they have a, potentially, temporary staffing shortage. 

- But the fact that a large number of drivers left Jesmond on top of Blyth & Ashington suffering minor shortages? Are they going to go to the effort to recruit drivers for work that is only marginally profitable? When they can concentrate on their core business and still turning a profit running deckers packed into Newcastle City Centre on the Ashington & Blyth 'X' routes, 43/44/45 and 306/308? And comfortably have enough staff to cover the work.

I fail to see how there is a more varied fleet to support? 5 vehicle types (DB300, E400, Pulsar, Solo, Streetlite) is not huge variation, especially compared to fleet compositions of the past - Olympians, L113s, N113s, B10BLEs, Metroriders, MPDs, E400s, Tridents, SB220s, Solos, SB200s, B7TLs all operating from the Northumbria depots simultaneously at one point from memory.

- Technically 6x if the E400MMC is counted as a vehicle type in its own class. Pulsar a bit on the heavy side for the 1/2 so StreetLites would be more suited. Likewise, although a step up for the 57/57A, they do get pretty fair loads.

(17 Nov 2022, 10:40 pm)mb134 wrote The remote reliefs aren't massively different to what happens now at Ashington with Morpeth. I'd be incredibly surprised if rotas, and maybe even routes, were not changed to make it more efficient. It increases costs, but nowhere near as much as locating new premises in Newcastle would. Arriva will have people who have looked into costings behind this and if there was a serious issue with all of the work becoming hugely unprofitable then I can almost guarantee it wouldn't be happening. 

I believe the minibus situation has been addressed previously, with whispers of new stock early next year. 

The actual profitability of those routes is almost irrelevent in terms of recruitment. The recruitment is needed for the network as a whole, that new driver could end up driving an X10 just as much as they could end up driving a 52. If those routes are making money, hell even if they're making a small loss, there is a clear need for them for the strength of the overall network. Say if the 52 loses £1k per week, but 50 people per week connect onto it using £25 weekly tickets bought on an X10 or X11 to get them to Cramlington initially, then overall for the business they're £250 up. If that 52 doesn't exist, those people then might not be able to get to work using the bus, so those 50 £25 weekly tickets are immediately gone. That's a fairly simplistic way of putting it and cuts some things out, but you get the gist. I'd also clarify that I have no idea how profitable those routes actually are, but given their frequencies, areas served, and that Arriva haven't binned them off suggests to me that they see them as important to their strategy. 

Internally the MMCs are categorised as E400s as far as I know. The 1/2 should really have new investment, they both make a decent chunk of money and have had scraps for years in terms of vehicles, new E200 MMCs would be ideal. 

(17 Nov 2022, 8:57 pm)L469 YVK wrote The whole logistics though. So........

- Dead mileage

- Euro 6 - Longer term vehicle maintenance, support costs and replacements

- Recruitment costs to plug driver gap

- More varied fleet to support

- Could potentially lose evening & Sunday work on mentioned routes

Not forgetting the opportunity to get rid of all single deck and minibus types with just StreetLites left to cover the 1/2/57/57A and the cost of running a StreetLite over a Solo won't be much more and cheaper than a Pulsar.

Then down the line if Blyth got 17x new vehicles for the X7/X9/X10/X11, that would see off all the 57 reg E400s and a good chunk of the 59 reg Geminis.

(17 Nov 2022, 11:30 pm)Storx wrote @mb134 has pretty much said what I'd say so I won't parrot it but the 51, 53 and 57A don't go out to tender they usually get a 'that word that's gone' deal before going out to tender. The 52 isn't subsidised at all bar the extension which Nexus paid Arriva to run North of Killingworth but that was by choice as far as I'm aware.

On the Streetlite's personally I'd just purchase some form of midibus the same length as the 8xxx series with GNE for the 1 and 2 in 2024 or whenever the Pulsar's are up for replacement, they do a job for now. Any Streetlite's should go down to Durham with the rest of their sisters if there ever is a replacement up here, they're a bit of an odd bod.

On the dead runs they're pretty short really. Stockton and Darlington have some very long dead runs, potentially up there with the highest in the country on the X1 (Stanhope back to the depot) and 5 (Stockton to Easington in the morning and evening (East Cleveland)) both over 20 mile because of the Bishop Auckland and Loftus closures respectively.

(18 Nov 2022, 9:51 pm)RobinHood wrote Ashington used to have a dead run every weekday from Ashington Depot to Belford. Almost 90 minutes before the bus even started taking fares.

(18 Nov 2022, 11:01 pm)Storx wrote Bit bonkers really that mind especially when they've got the Alnwick depot nearer to it. 

Guessing the early Thropton boards will be the furthest now from Ashington. Could imagine it being a rather choice route in the winter, in bad weather, as I can't imagine there'll be much around at 6am in the morning and it's the sort of place there'll be 5ft snow up there and sunny at Ashington.

(19 Nov 2022, 5:47 pm)RobinHood wrote I think it was an X14 board which was why it was Ashington based.

It did an X18 from Belford to Alnwick and then ran dead to Longframlington for around 09:15.

That X18 was removed from 30 Oct and a new earlier X20 was put on between Ashington and Alnwick instead.

(19 Nov 2022, 7:46 pm)Storx wrote Speaking of allocations, does anyone know what's up with the 2 and 57/57A today, there seems to be an allocation swap. Not aware of anything around here which would mean the 57/57A needs anything bigger and not aware of any roadworks on the 2 route either which means full sizes buses can't be allocated. Kind of fits this thread.

(20 Nov 2022, 12:11 am)mb134 wrote Believe Morpeth high street was closed today, so Solos allocated to the 2 to make navigating the Clock Tower easier for drivers.

(20 Nov 2022, 6:28 am)omnicity4659 wrote Surprised that is an issue? I remember the 2 and X16 having no issues when turning to/from Oldgate and Newgate Street, when that was the usual route.

(22 Nov 2022, 1:08 pm)OrangeArrow49 wrote So the Arriva 685 is definitely going? Not to go off topic, but I was thinking could the X82 not get binned as the route is covered by other services (10/11, 39/40, 62, 71/72, 684 and 685)?

Are we likely to see the 47 go to another operator?

Shame Arriva giving up their share of the 685 reduces ticket options for passengers yet again, although they do stand out for most of the route with Stagecoach and GNE as the main operators and rail being preferred for Hexham apparently.

(22 Nov 2022, 1:08 pm)OrangeArrow49 wrote So the Arriva 685 is definitely going? Not to go off topic, but I was thinking could the X82 not get binned as the route is covered by other services (10/11, 39/40, 62, 71/72, 684 and 685)?

Are we likely to see the 47 go to another operator?

Shame Arriva giving up their share of the 685 reduces ticket options for passengers yet again, although they do stand out for most of the route with Stagecoach and GNE as the main operators and rail being preferred for Hexham apparently.

• Operates Every 30 Minutes Monday to Saturday, Hourly on a Sunday.
  
• Stanley Travel X46 & Go North East's Service (H) both withdrawn.
  
• Combined PVR of 4 currently reduced by half to 2.
  
• Timetable is enhanced for NHS Staff to cover late evening/weekend shift workings across all 3 three hospitals and can still travel for free however service now open to Non NHS Staff to use providing they pay current fare offering. 
  
• Hollywood Avenue still have a Bus Service which is more sustainable than it's previous offerings with improved connections.