(25 Jul 2024, 1:52 pm)deanmachine wrote In full support, as long as they get the contracts! Stagecoach might think otherwise though if the North East is a profitable as some on here claim it is.

(25 Jul 2024, 4:52 pm)Shrek wrote That might be why Stagecoach were the only one of the main three not to make a positive statement about it.

(25 Jul 2024, 4:52 pm)Shrek wrote That might be why Stagecoach were the only one of the main three not to make a positive statement about it.

(25 Jul 2024, 9:34 pm)markydh wrote According to the papers posted above, Busways made a £1.2m loss in 22/23 so I’d be very surprised if they weren’t also in favour of a more reliable revenue stream via franchises.

(24 Jul 2024, 8:06 pm)Adrian wrote Thought this could use its own thread.

It looks like the NECA Cabinet on 30th July will agree to issue a notice of intent to prepare a Franchising Scheme Assessment (FSA). This is a legal step that the authority needs to take.

The report is extensive and covered in page 73 to 313 of the agenda pack: https://www.northeast-ca.gov.uk/downloads/2768/public-agenda-pack-north-east-ca-cabinet-30-07-24.pdf

The Chronicle has also done a write up, wirh their usual tabloid style headlining: https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/north-east-bus-operators-react-29606117

Interestingly, Go North East and Arriva seem to now be in full support. Oh how times change! 

(26 Jul 2024, 9:58 am)Adrian wrote Stagecoach's national position appears to be to still oppose such moves. Though on the other hand, still happy to bid for the work.

Go-Ahead appear to be nationally in favour of it, if that's what LAs opt to do, though they claim to remain committed irrespective. I'm not sure Arriva have a national position, but they certainly responded favourably to the Liverpool City Region's plan.

(26 Jul 2024, 6:37 pm)Storx wrote I'm not surprised at GoAhead considering the only place they have a network in an area which is realistically going to ever do it is the North East and it's a basketcase as an understatement. 

More money for them when they bid in areas they've never worked in prior to the franchsing. 

Stagecoach being the polar opposite so I'm not surprised they're the opposite and I can't blame them either really.

Be interesting to see how First react as their network is similar to Stagecoach but the areas they operate in haven't got very far yet. Yorkshire etc.

(26 Jul 2024, 10:35 pm)Adrian wrote I'm not sure that's the reason? They had mixed results from the Manchesrer scheme. I think they'd have hoped to keep Queens Road, if they had the choice.

Devolution and additional powers is only going to increase too. I think every local and combined authority will be looking at Manchester's franchising in particular.

(26 Jul 2024, 10:35 pm)Adrian wrote I'm not sure that's the reason? They had mixed results from the Manchesrer scheme. I think they'd have hoped to keep Queens Road, if they had the choice.

Devolution and additional powers is only going to increase too. I think every local and combined authority will be looking at Manchester's franchising in particular.

(27 Jul 2024, 5:17 am)DeltaMan wrote Only if Government money is forthcoming and given how local authorities have been spending transport money up here, I'd be giving the North East a wide berth if I was Rachel Reeves

• A number of options are assessed in the report, but they mainly focus around either expanding the current EP, and evolving it to an "EP Max/EP+". This is described to retain the current delivery model while seeking to push the boundaries of the legislative framework, subsidy regulations and competition law to deliver expansive benefits for passengers. Very much a voluntary partnership, where the operators can pick and choose what they go with.
  
• The other option being a franchised bus network. Franchising significantly changes the operational structure. Buses are brought into public control meaning the authority can determine routes, timetables, fares and vehicle standards within the franchised area.
  

• It would be a highly demanding process in terms of costs, increased risk and timescales. 
  
• The FSA would compare franchising to other operational models and more comprehensively analyse the implications of franchising for the region. Conducting an FSA would require around £8.5 million in funding.
  
• If the decision after the FSA is to proceed with Franchising, then it's estimated this would likely take just over 5 years for the first bus services to enter operation, but a long estimate is between 4 and 7 years.
  
• The FSA itself (inclusive of audit, consultation and approvals) is likely to take around 2 years 8 months. Long estimate is 2 years to 3 years 9 months;
  
• Whereas the implementation and procurement may take between 2 years to 3 years and 6 month
  

• Productivity: There's a claim that our transport network has a direct impact on the productivity levels in the North East. Poor infrastructure, including weak transport links, are some of the factors that contribute to lower levels of productivity. For labour productivity, output per hour worked in the North East was 17.4% below the UK average in 2021.
  
• Transport-related Social Exclusion: 31.5% of residents in the North East (622,000 residents) are at risk of transport related social exclusion, compared to 21% of northern England, and 18% of England. There's a map that shows our region, and it's mainly around the ex-Coal Field communities and the Northumberland Coast line, where it's rife.
  
• Funding: BSOG+ ends 31 March 2025
  
• Funding: The estimate is that approximately 43% of bus operator income during 2022/23 is directly attributable to public sector funding streams. This funding includes secured service payments (14% of total), concessionary travel reimbursement (17% of total), some coronavirus recovery support (5% of total), as well as BSOG and reimbursement for the £2 fare cap. This figure is consistent with pre-pandemic levels – public sector support in the North East was 40% in 2018/19 - as well as similar analysis conducted in other regions. Despite this high level of investment, the bus network has seen long term decline - 31% shrinkage since 2010 and 36% reduction in patrionage.
  
• Growth: North East is performing worst, compared to other areas, in growing passenger numbers post Covid. Most follow a similar upward spike from the big dip in 2020/2021, but Tyne and Wear's upward growth is a lot slower, whereas Durham and Northumberland has almost flatlined.
  

• Respondents were asked how their perception of buses has changed over the last few years. A strong theme for this question was a decline in the perception of the bus services, with around 360 uses of phrases that indicate a lower perception. “Got worse” “Less frequent” “less reliable” “less buses” “Services cut”. “Worse” occurs 195 times, “better” 65 times and “Much better” only eight times.
  
• “Expensive” was the third most common word people used when asked what three words spring to mind when they thought about buses in 2023"
  
• Stakeholders commonly felt that current bus services in the North East did not meet the needs of our population, particularly those in work. Services were seen as too unreliable and infrequent for people to use them to travel to their workplace.
  
• Interviews coincided with the GNE drivers’ strike and some stakeholders argued the strike had further weakened confidence in the network – pushing some users to purchase cars and leading more people to view buses as unreliable; perceptions that could take significant time to reverse, even following the strike’s conclusion.
  
• Stakeholders felt that the bus services did not meet the standards they expect due to being infrequent and unreliable. Stakeholders were concerned about the ability of the current network to meet decarbonisation goals and felt that the drivers’ strike had weakened confidence in the network- leading to more people travelling by car. Interviewees also noted that they were paying more in subsidy to operators than they ever had before to sustain important services. Reform was seen as a desirable response to these issues.
  

(28 Jul 2024, 1:30 pm)OrangeArrow49 wrote Is franchising being looked at for the whole of the North East?

So we could see different operators across the region? Darlington might not be Arriva, Slatyford might not be Stagecoach and Northumberland might not be dominated by Arriva?

(28 Jul 2024, 5:04 pm)OrangeArrow49 wrote I am interested to see how much difference franchising makes. Presumably Northumberland will still be Arriva.

(28 Jul 2024, 5:36 pm)cbma06 wrote Not necessarily, any bus operator in the UK etc.. can bid for the Northumberland, if Northstar gets a big financial backing there could bid and win those routes in Northumberland, or Northstar could gain running Sunderland services from the Wheatsheaf depot, Stagecoach could lose areas in Tyne and Wear etc…., too much ifs and buts, it will be a canny few years yet.


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(28 Jul 2024, 4:28 pm)cbma06 wrote As far as I’ve seen, the mayor (can’t remember the female person named) covers Northumberland/County Durham and Tyne and Wear), while Cleveland area including hartlepool comes under a male person mayor, which I’ve seen on media has mentioned has changed his mind about franchising.
Other neb members might have more info

(28 Jul 2024, 5:36 pm)cbma06 wrote Not necessarily, any bus operator in the UK etc.. can bid for the Northumberland, if Northstar gets a big financial backing there could bid and win those routes in Northumberland, or Northstar could gain running Sunderland services from the Wheatsheaf depot, Stagecoach could lose areas in Tyne and Wear etc…., too much ifs and buts, it will be a canny few years yet.


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(28 Jul 2024, 5:52 pm)Rob44 wrote Is this depot currently Stagecoach? Surely if north star won several routes in Sunderland they would have to find there own storage or are you suggesting they would lease space from Stagecoach?  I assume stagecoach own the land and they have made there millions by just giving stuff away?

(28 Jul 2024, 8:01 pm)Adrian wrote I'll not repeat what I added above, but doesn't the depot become a useless asset, if the current occupier doesn't run any franchised services in the area? They can't run commercial ones, so they'd be paying for a big empty space.

They won't be giving it away, but I think it's likely the North East CA will buy the asset. Let's not forget that one of the Mayor's devolved powers, is the ability to issue compulsory purchase orders.

(28 Jul 2024, 8:51 pm)Rob44 wrote Yeh I suppose But forgive me and I might be proved wrong but I just cant see

North star bid for all arriva northumbria routes

North star win all the routes between haymarket and Berwick

North star offer arriva "x" amount for garages in northumberland but arriva say no we are taking our bus stock to Liverpool and selling the land for houses.

Mayor jumps in and buys land at going rate i assume???

North star now has a garage with not enough buses ( or drivers for that matter) Change north star to any other company and its still the same.

I just can see it happening.  I bet 20p on 90% of the routes continued to be operated by the current operator unless THEY dont want to run them. 

But as you have put above we could all have passed to the other side if its going to take 5 years!

(28 Jul 2024, 9:31 pm)Rob44 wrote I know Labour is in power but there seems to be a lot of spending going on..... got to be a few million quid to buy each depot. 

(30 Jul 2024, 3:47 pm)Adrian wrote Report approved with very little debate or input, so off to develop the FSA they go.

(30 Jul 2024, 6:49 pm)solsburian wrote The right result, but with the wrong people in charge IMHO. I hope they take on board the opinions of more competent people.

(30 Jul 2024, 7:47 pm)Adrian wrote I agree, and given they'll still assess the franchising scheme versus other options within the FSA, it's the only option imo.

Hopefully the amount of money they've set aside will allow them to get some outside knowledge into the Organisation, and hopefully Gannon's involvement will be limited to counting paperclips.

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(30 Jul 2024, 7:50 pm)Storx wrote Does he actually do much? Tobyn Hughes on the other hand though, that bloke is unsackable. In fact he keeps getting promotions and I'm still unsure what he's done to deserve it. Absolute failure at the Metro when he was in charge, not that it's improved much since he's left either. Believe he's officially in charge of the transport side of this now aswell.

(30 Jul 2024, 8:13 pm)Adrian wrote Tobyn hasn't really had a promotion. Just a sideways step to the authority, rather than the executive. He's director of Transport and NECA now.

I agree on Metro. Although it was privatised for much of his tenure, I struggle with how that contract was allowed to run for it's duration. The performance was disastrous for much of it.

Gannon is a Cllr and Portfolio holder. He'll have a level of delegated authority through the sub committee, I'd have thought, but the work of a local authority is carried out by officers. Councillors are just the decision makers (which is worrying, in this case)

(30 Jul 2024, 8:25 pm)Storx wrote Mind speaking of Nexus, there's got to be serious questions whether it should really exist at all or whether there should be a transport body for all the 7 council areas, ultimately controlled by NECA, similar to Transport For Manchester. I'm really not sure how franchising is going to work otherwise.