(19 Aug 2023, 12:58 pm)Adrian we need to move to franchising, where operators are paid to run services regardless.
I suspect almost every bus operator in the country would take this now, rather than impose legal fights as per historic opportunities.
The guaranteed income from franchising, completely removing the risk from the commercial operation, I can only see as an attractive proposition for any of the major companies at this time, with the added opportunities for the littler ones of course.
That said, average person has literally no idea (or a completely misguided idea) of the actual costs to operate buses nowadays, and this includes local authorities and Metro Mayors. I estimate that it could be around £165,000 per year that is required to be generated in revenue, per bus, before any profit is being made at all (in an average size, large operator depot).
Those who dream or expect a return to 1985, with buses running everywhere again, will probably be disappointed, as I cannot see how it can be afforded. Once upon a time, there probably were bus networks that harbored massively profitable routes and had the ability to cross subsidise high numbers of unprofitable services if they were ran no-for-profit (which meant only low subsidy from the public purse needed to maintain stability or improve), but frankly I suspect that as we stand today, most operators are either still loss making or reliant on BRG funding still, just to tread water overall.
As a result of the assumptions above, I fear that franchising will cost significantly more than people realise to just provide the same level of service we have today, nevermind improvements. Anything above the current provision, such as more early, late and weekend services, and/or cheaper fares, will consistently require millions (or billions) from the public purse to achieve it. Its simply not sustainable unless we all pay for it via income tax or even a new 'transport tax' for those in franchised areas.
At the end of the day, the bus operator risk is much lower in this situation than it was 10 years ago and will most likely jump at a fixed margin position in the current climate. They will bid at prices that work for them (which may be massive double digit % margins), as there wont be a shortage of work compared to operators available. Operators who put in those high margin prices will still likely 'win' enough work to ensure they can utilise their resources in full, due to the lack of suppliers in comparison to the opportunity requirement. I cannot see that changing and the only loser is the person who needs to pay for it.
