Arriva North East: Upcoming Service Changes
Arriva North East: Upcoming Service Changes
"when lockdown (hopefully) comes to end, as there will be a re-emerging market for bus travel."
The thing is, lots of people have got used to making alternative arrangements.
(19 May 2021, 6:52 pm)RobinHood My opinion is anything that hasn't been put back 100% by now, is unlikely to be.I've always been surprised the Durham to Newcastle portion of the x12 has kept going but I had an upper deck into Newcastle all to myself on Monday morning and there were never more than 10 of us on a pulsar, heading back to Durham, at lunchtime. Much quieter than both the 21 and x21.
CBSSG ends when social distancing ends - so the financial safety net will be removed. Operators will look to rebase against the demand levels that exist at that time - I suspect, only lifting frequencies as demand creeps up.
I read somewhere that passenger levels in North East are still only around 60% of normal, which is a worry.
(19 May 2021, 6:52 pm)RobinHood My opinion is anything that hasn't been put back 100% by now, is unlikely to be.I've always been surprised the Durham to Newcastle portion of the x12 has kept going but I had an upper deck into Newcastle all to myself on Monday morning and there were never more than 10 of us on a pulsar, heading back to Durham, at lunchtime. Much quieter than both the 21 and x21.
CBSSG ends when social distancing ends - so the financial safety net will be removed. Operators will look to rebase against the demand levels that exist at that time - I suspect, only lifting frequencies as demand creeps up.
I read somewhere that passenger levels in North East are still only around 60% of normal, which is a worry.
(19 May 2021, 10:06 pm)BusLoverMum I've always been surprised the Durham to Newcastle portion of the x12 has kept going but I had an upper deck into Newcastle all to myself on Monday morning and there were never more than 10 of us on a pulsar, heading back to Durham, at lunchtime. Much quieter than both the 21 and x21.
(19 May 2021, 10:06 pm)BusLoverMum I've always been surprised the Durham to Newcastle portion of the x12 has kept going but I had an upper deck into Newcastle all to myself on Monday morning and there were never more than 10 of us on a pulsar, heading back to Durham, at lunchtime. Much quieter than both the 21 and x21.
(19 May 2021, 9:55 pm)BusLoverMum "when lockdown (hopefully) comes to end, as there will be a re-emerging market for bus travel."
The thing is, lots of people have got used to making alternative arrangements.
(19 May 2021, 9:55 pm)BusLoverMum "when lockdown (hopefully) comes to end, as there will be a re-emerging market for bus travel."
The thing is, lots of people have got used to making alternative arrangements.
(19 May 2021, 10:36 pm)peter This is very true...was trying to be optimistic with that comment! I suppose the ending of lockdown is the time to make sure services and vehicles are as nice as they've ever been, in order to try and draw passengers back! While this is something we've seen GNE do, I can't see Arriva doing the same. As I said, it seems likely Arriva are going to keep some of their previously more frequent services less so, due to the likely reduced demand for bus travel - in fairness they're meeting the reduced demand and cost-cutting on vehicles and drivers alike.
I suppose GNE are taking a more pro-active approach to try and combat the impacts of COVID-19, whereas it seems more likely that Arriva will just be accepting those impacts and scaling back their operations to reflect that. While Arriva's option might end up being the more profitable, I do wish GNE luck, time will tell as to whether the demand returns, and indeed it might even with ANE in time, but it will be interesting to see how the short-term response post-COVID influences the long-term response
(19 May 2021, 10:36 pm)peter This is very true...was trying to be optimistic with that comment! I suppose the ending of lockdown is the time to make sure services and vehicles are as nice as they've ever been, in order to try and draw passengers back! While this is something we've seen GNE do, I can't see Arriva doing the same. As I said, it seems likely Arriva are going to keep some of their previously more frequent services less so, due to the likely reduced demand for bus travel - in fairness they're meeting the reduced demand and cost-cutting on vehicles and drivers alike.
I suppose GNE are taking a more pro-active approach to try and combat the impacts of COVID-19, whereas it seems more likely that Arriva will just be accepting those impacts and scaling back their operations to reflect that. While Arriva's option might end up being the more profitable, I do wish GNE luck, time will tell as to whether the demand returns, and indeed it might even with ANE in time, but it will be interesting to see how the short-term response post-COVID influences the long-term response
(19 May 2021, 6:58 pm)Micheal Aaron Arriva have always in the past (apart from 2020) done major timetable changes in the September when kids go back to school then do it in MarchAs you point out, this September change has taken place in the past, apart from the COVID-affected 2020. So it wouldn't be too unreasonable for the changes to occur earlier this year in-line with the complete easing of lockdown in the COVID-affected 2021. However as has been said, it's probably noteworthy that changes haven't been made in the May easing of lockdown, so like you say perhaps we will be returning to the traditional September-time changes.
(19 May 2021, 10:42 pm)streetdeckfan I think, if they wanted to, GNE could also use this as an opportunity to start to intrude on Arriva's territory. They were clearly already planning on doing it to some extent with the 21 extension to Brandon.
Passenger numbers on the X21 from Bishop to West seem to be getting stronger (and from my experience are way better than they were pre-covid), and it doesn't seem to just be concessionary travellers either
(19 May 2021, 6:58 pm)Micheal Aaron Arriva have always in the past (apart from 2020) done major timetable changes in the September when kids go back to school then do it in MarchAs you point out, this September change has taken place in the past, apart from the COVID-affected 2020. So it wouldn't be too unreasonable for the changes to occur earlier this year in-line with the complete easing of lockdown in the COVID-affected 2021. However as has been said, it's probably noteworthy that changes haven't been made in the May easing of lockdown, so like you say perhaps we will be returning to the traditional September-time changes.
(19 May 2021, 10:42 pm)streetdeckfan I think, if they wanted to, GNE could also use this as an opportunity to start to intrude on Arriva's territory. They were clearly already planning on doing it to some extent with the 21 extension to Brandon.
Passenger numbers on the X21 from Bishop to West seem to be getting stronger (and from my experience are way better than they were pre-covid), and it doesn't seem to just be concessionary travellers either
(19 May 2021, 10:43 pm)peter As you point out, this September change has taken place in the past, apart from the COVID-affected 2020. So it wouldn't be too unreasonable for the changes to occur earlier this year in-line with the complete easing of lockdown in the COVID-affected 2021. However as has been said, it's probably noteworthy that changes haven't been made in the May easing of lockdown, so like you say perhaps we will be returning to the traditional September-time changes.
It certainly would be interesting to see GNE attempt to strengthen their position in Durham. I definitely think increasing the frequency to Bishop Auckland with the 6 now reduced to every 15 minutes could be a good move. While I think the East Durham 22-24 group and Coxhoe 56-58/X12 group would be hard to compete with (and Darlington and the 7 would be quite a challenge), the 43/48/49/X46 could easily be competed against. A nice comparatively newer GNE bus versus an ageing ALX400 or Optare Solo - there would definitely be some appeal there. There's also potential for competition with the 64 now GNE have an increased presence in the Arnison Centre.
(19 May 2021, 10:43 pm)peter As you point out, this September change has taken place in the past, apart from the COVID-affected 2020. So it wouldn't be too unreasonable for the changes to occur earlier this year in-line with the complete easing of lockdown in the COVID-affected 2021. However as has been said, it's probably noteworthy that changes haven't been made in the May easing of lockdown, so like you say perhaps we will be returning to the traditional September-time changes.
It certainly would be interesting to see GNE attempt to strengthen their position in Durham. I definitely think increasing the frequency to Bishop Auckland with the 6 now reduced to every 15 minutes could be a good move. While I think the East Durham 22-24 group and Coxhoe 56-58/X12 group would be hard to compete with (and Darlington and the 7 would be quite a challenge), the 43/48/49/X46 could easily be competed against. A nice comparatively newer GNE bus versus an ageing ALX400 or Optare Solo - there would definitely be some appeal there. There's also potential for competition with the 64 now GNE have an increased presence in the Arnison Centre.
(19 May 2021, 7:07 pm)mb134 Would this include the introduction of a fantasy X19 and the cutting of portions of their most profitable routes?Well, if they wanted to compete against ABTR then that service would be sensible.
(19 May 2021, 7:07 pm)mb134 Would this include the introduction of a fantasy X19 and the cutting of portions of their most profitable routes?Well, if they wanted to compete against ABTR then that service would be sensible.
(20 May 2021, 5:15 am)L469 YVK Well, if they wanted to compete against ABTR then that service would be sensible.
If you look back in the Bygone Era (search X31, X32, X33 circa 1997), in a nutshell give or take it was a 15 minute frequency with half hourly via Bedlington Station and half hourly via Guide Post. Only difference this time would be the Hartlands going half hourly with Nedderton also being served half hourly.
(20 May 2021, 5:15 am)L469 YVK Well, if they wanted to compete against ABTR then that service would be sensible.
If you look back in the Bygone Era (search X31, X32, X33 circa 1997), in a nutshell give or take it was a 15 minute frequency with half hourly via Bedlington Station and half hourly via Guide Post. Only difference this time would be the Hartlands going half hourly with Nedderton also being served half hourly.
(20 May 2021, 6:37 am)Storx No it wasn't, the X31 and X32 were both every 30 minutes both by Bedlington Station (every 15 minutes) and the X33 was every 30 minutes (the current X22).That didn't come till later
(20 May 2021, 6:37 am)Storx No it wasn't, the X31 and X32 were both every 30 minutes both by Bedlington Station (every 15 minutes) and the X33 was every 30 minutes (the current X22).That didn't come till later
(19 May 2021, 10:43 pm)peter As you point out, this September change has taken place in the past, apart from the COVID-affected 2020. So it wouldn't be too unreasonable for the changes to occur earlier this year in-line with the complete easing of lockdown in the COVID-affected 2021. However as has been said, it's probably noteworthy that changes haven't been made in the May easing of lockdown, so like you say perhaps we will be returning to the traditional September-time changes.
It certainly would be interesting to see GNE attempt to strengthen their position in Durham. I definitely think increasing the frequency to Bishop Auckland with the 6 now reduced to every 15 minutes could be a good move. While I think the East Durham 22-24 group and Coxhoe 56-58/X12 group would be hard to compete with (and Darlington and the 7 would be quite a challenge), the 43/48/49/X46 could easily be competed against. A nice comparatively newer GNE bus versus an ageing ALX400 or Optare Solo - there would definitely be some appeal there. There's also potential for competition with the 64 now GNE have an increased presence in the Arnison Centre.
(19 May 2021, 10:43 pm)peter As you point out, this September change has taken place in the past, apart from the COVID-affected 2020. So it wouldn't be too unreasonable for the changes to occur earlier this year in-line with the complete easing of lockdown in the COVID-affected 2021. However as has been said, it's probably noteworthy that changes haven't been made in the May easing of lockdown, so like you say perhaps we will be returning to the traditional September-time changes.
It certainly would be interesting to see GNE attempt to strengthen their position in Durham. I definitely think increasing the frequency to Bishop Auckland with the 6 now reduced to every 15 minutes could be a good move. While I think the East Durham 22-24 group and Coxhoe 56-58/X12 group would be hard to compete with (and Darlington and the 7 would be quite a challenge), the 43/48/49/X46 could easily be competed against. A nice comparatively newer GNE bus versus an ageing ALX400 or Optare Solo - there would definitely be some appeal there. There's also potential for competition with the 64 now GNE have an increased presence in the Arnison Centre.
(22 May 2021, 9:19 am)busmanT I think only an operator consumed by madness would start competing services at this time.
Operating costs are higher than they were (extra cleaning etc) and passenger numbers can't be more than about 65% of pre covid.
PLUS the National Bus Strategy is all about removing "over bussing" (i.e competing services, excessively high frequencies to protect market share) either through Partnership or Franchising. it appears that Local Authorities will have the final say on bus network design.
(22 May 2021, 9:19 am)busmanT I think only an operator consumed by madness would start competing services at this time.
Operating costs are higher than they were (extra cleaning etc) and passenger numbers can't be more than about 65% of pre covid.
PLUS the National Bus Strategy is all about removing "over bussing" (i.e competing services, excessively high frequencies to protect market share) either through Partnership or Franchising. it appears that Local Authorities will have the final say on bus network design.
(22 May 2021, 1:19 pm)peter While I agree that starting competition now is unlikely, (ANE's current reduced frequencies are clearly so for a reason), it's apparent that GNE have considered extending their territory in Durham with that potential extension to Brandon (which I think was squashed due to concerns about operational logistics during the pandemic). However, I still maintain it would be interesting to see GNE stretch their wings in the Durham area and to see how Arriva would respond.OK1 went in summertime 2013, X66 didn't go MAX until December 2014 with the X67 being introduced in October 2015.
I often feel as though Arriva are quite complacent, and a bit of healthy competition would no doubt kick their arse into gear. The prime example I can think of is the OK1. GNE introduced the OK1 between Crook and Darlington when at the time Arriva operated a half hourly frequency between Crook and Darlington on service 1. All of a sudden after the introduction of the OK1, Arriva introduced the X1 between Crook and Darlington, a quicker service providing a combined 15 minute frequency between those two destinations. Now obviously we know the OK1 ended up being withdrawn, and while Arriva's frequency to Crook did end up being reduced back down to half hourly, the frequency between Darlington and Bishop Auckland remained and still remains at 15 minutes. I doubt that the X1 would have been introduced if it weren't for the OK1 and so while the competing operator failed, it generated a benefit for passengers in the long-term. Similarly before the OK1 was withdrawn it was also extended to Middlesbrough, which saw Arriva respond by increasing their frequency from every 20 minutes to every 15 minutes through the new X67 - a service which still exists today, despite the removal of the OK1. Overall my point is that were GNE to trial some additional services within Durham, even if they didn't end up being successful it might 'encourage' ANE to up their game a bit, providing a benefit for passengers in the long run.
(22 May 2021, 1:19 pm)peter While I agree that starting competition now is unlikely, (ANE's current reduced frequencies are clearly so for a reason), it's apparent that GNE have considered extending their territory in Durham with that potential extension to Brandon (which I think was squashed due to concerns about operational logistics during the pandemic). However, I still maintain it would be interesting to see GNE stretch their wings in the Durham area and to see how Arriva would respond.OK1 went in summertime 2013, X66 didn't go MAX until December 2014 with the X67 being introduced in October 2015.
I often feel as though Arriva are quite complacent, and a bit of healthy competition would no doubt kick their arse into gear. The prime example I can think of is the OK1. GNE introduced the OK1 between Crook and Darlington when at the time Arriva operated a half hourly frequency between Crook and Darlington on service 1. All of a sudden after the introduction of the OK1, Arriva introduced the X1 between Crook and Darlington, a quicker service providing a combined 15 minute frequency between those two destinations. Now obviously we know the OK1 ended up being withdrawn, and while Arriva's frequency to Crook did end up being reduced back down to half hourly, the frequency between Darlington and Bishop Auckland remained and still remains at 15 minutes. I doubt that the X1 would have been introduced if it weren't for the OK1 and so while the competing operator failed, it generated a benefit for passengers in the long-term. Similarly before the OK1 was withdrawn it was also extended to Middlesbrough, which saw Arriva respond by increasing their frequency from every 20 minutes to every 15 minutes through the new X67 - a service which still exists today, despite the removal of the OK1. Overall my point is that were GNE to trial some additional services within Durham, even if they didn't end up being successful it might 'encourage' ANE to up their game a bit, providing a benefit for passengers in the long run.
(22 May 2021, 1:19 pm)peter While I agree that starting competition now is unlikely, (ANE's current reduced frequencies are clearly so for a reason), it's apparent that GNE have considered extending their territory in Durham with that potential extension to Brandon (which I think was squashed due to concerns about operational logistics during the pandemic). However, I still maintain it would be interesting to see GNE stretch their wings in the Durham area and to see how Arriva would respond.
I often feel as though Arriva are quite complacent, and a bit of healthy competition would no doubt kick their arse into gear. The prime example I can think of is the OK1. GNE introduced the OK1 between Crook and Darlington when at the time Arriva operated a half hourly frequency between Crook and Darlington on service 1. All of a sudden after the introduction of the OK1, Arriva introduced the X1 between Crook and Darlington, a quicker service providing a combined 15 minute frequency between those two destinations. Now obviously we know the OK1 ended up being withdrawn, and while Arriva's frequency to Crook did end up being reduced back down to half hourly, the frequency between Darlington and Bishop Auckland remained and still remains at 15 minutes. I doubt that the X1 would have been introduced if it weren't for the OK1 and so while the competing operator failed, it generated a benefit for passengers in the long-term. Similarly before the OK1 was withdrawn it was also extended to Middlesbrough, which saw Arriva respond by increasing their frequency from every 20 minutes to every 15 minutes through the new X67 - a service which still exists today, despite the removal of the OK1. Overall my point is that were GNE to trial some additional services within Durham, even if they didn't end up being successful it might 'encourage' ANE to up their game a bit, providing a benefit for passengers in the long run.
(22 May 2021, 1:19 pm)peter While I agree that starting competition now is unlikely, (ANE's current reduced frequencies are clearly so for a reason), it's apparent that GNE have considered extending their territory in Durham with that potential extension to Brandon (which I think was squashed due to concerns about operational logistics during the pandemic). However, I still maintain it would be interesting to see GNE stretch their wings in the Durham area and to see how Arriva would respond.
I often feel as though Arriva are quite complacent, and a bit of healthy competition would no doubt kick their arse into gear. The prime example I can think of is the OK1. GNE introduced the OK1 between Crook and Darlington when at the time Arriva operated a half hourly frequency between Crook and Darlington on service 1. All of a sudden after the introduction of the OK1, Arriva introduced the X1 between Crook and Darlington, a quicker service providing a combined 15 minute frequency between those two destinations. Now obviously we know the OK1 ended up being withdrawn, and while Arriva's frequency to Crook did end up being reduced back down to half hourly, the frequency between Darlington and Bishop Auckland remained and still remains at 15 minutes. I doubt that the X1 would have been introduced if it weren't for the OK1 and so while the competing operator failed, it generated a benefit for passengers in the long-term. Similarly before the OK1 was withdrawn it was also extended to Middlesbrough, which saw Arriva respond by increasing their frequency from every 20 minutes to every 15 minutes through the new X67 - a service which still exists today, despite the removal of the OK1. Overall my point is that were GNE to trial some additional services within Durham, even if they didn't end up being successful it might 'encourage' ANE to up their game a bit, providing a benefit for passengers in the long run.
(22 May 2021, 7:10 pm)Storx I know what your trying to do here but it won't work like that all. We'll have the North Tyneside / SE Northumberland bus wars all over again. Personally if I was Arriva and GNE attempted to try and attack me in my territory then my first point of call would be to be to go for their corridors again, Peterlee would be my first target especially now the X6/X7 is down to hourly then I'd be looking at taking on the 20 and 21 with services extended to Sunderland from Brandon or buses via Leamside, Great Lumley and Gilesgate direct to Newcastle or whatever. GNE's network isn't all that great North of Durham either unless you happen to live on the 21/X21 corridor.Arriva don't have the resource to handle competition like what they did 10-15 year back.
(22 May 2021, 7:10 pm)Storx I know what your trying to do here but it won't work like that all. We'll have the North Tyneside / SE Northumberland bus wars all over again. Personally if I was Arriva and GNE attempted to try and attack me in my territory then my first point of call would be to be to go for their corridors again, Peterlee would be my first target especially now the X6/X7 is down to hourly then I'd be looking at taking on the 20 and 21 with services extended to Sunderland from Brandon or buses via Leamside, Great Lumley and Gilesgate direct to Newcastle or whatever. GNE's network isn't all that great North of Durham either unless you happen to live on the 21/X21 corridor.Arriva don't have the resource to handle competition like what they did 10-15 year back.
Arriva invest. The last order they got was them X21MMC. Arriva won't invest in new buses. Changing there liverys yea but new buses. I highly doubt it
(22 May 2021, 8:37 pm)L469 YVK Arriva don't have the resource to handle competition like what they did 10-15 year back.How about some investment South of the Tyne?!
Arriva until DB put some serious investment into the business are a shadow of what they were.
Where will the extra buses & drivers come from to fight GNE off? Arriva need serious investment particularly for Northumbria before they start going back into bus wars.
To put it in a nutshell, Arriva need:
- 10x new vehicles for the 308
- 14x new vehicles for the X7/X8/X9
- 13x new vehicles for the X10/X11
- 6x new vehicles for X93 (B9s ending up on X14/X20)
- 13x or 14x new vehicles for X15, X18 and either X14 or X20
(22 May 2021, 8:37 pm)L469 YVK Arriva don't have the resource to handle competition like what they did 10-15 year back.How about some investment South of the Tyne?!
Arriva until DB put some serious investment into the business are a shadow of what they were.
Where will the extra buses & drivers come from to fight GNE off? Arriva need serious investment particularly for Northumbria before they start going back into bus wars.
To put it in a nutshell, Arriva need:
- 10x new vehicles for the 308
- 14x new vehicles for the X7/X8/X9
- 13x new vehicles for the X10/X11
- 6x new vehicles for X93 (B9s ending up on X14/X20)
- 13x or 14x new vehicles for X15, X18 and either X14 or X20
(22 May 2021, 9:16 pm)Jimmi How about some investment South of the Tyne?!
The thing we could really do with is some new single deckers somewhere within the North East to see off the Omni's at Darlington & Ashington.
A order of deckers for the X15/X18 and maybe X14/X20 would be close enough to see off the B7TLs in the fleet.
Seem as everyone forgets, the last new buses for Arriva North East was the 67 plate Lites at Darlington (delivered in 2018)
(22 May 2021, 9:16 pm)Jimmi How about some investment South of the Tyne?!
The thing we could really do with is some new single deckers somewhere within the North East to see off the Omni's at Darlington & Ashington.
A order of deckers for the X15/X18 and maybe X14/X20 would be close enough to see off the B7TLs in the fleet.
Seem as everyone forgets, the last new buses for Arriva North East was the 67 plate Lites at Darlington (delivered in 2018)
(22 May 2021, 9:20 pm)Dan Any investment that is made is likely to be made in Tyneside for the impending Clean Air Zone.
Resultant re-allocations could still result in the disposal of the elderly Scania OmniCity at Darlington - could the MAX specification VDL Gemini not be a good fit for the X66 and X67? I don’t profess to use these services very often, but pre-Covid I’ve been on a few very busy single-decks...
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(22 May 2021, 9:20 pm)Dan Any investment that is made is likely to be made in Tyneside for the impending Clean Air Zone.
Resultant re-allocations could still result in the disposal of the elderly Scania OmniCity at Darlington - could the MAX specification VDL Gemini not be a good fit for the X66 and X67? I don’t profess to use these services very often, but pre-Covid I’ve been on a few very busy single-decks...
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