This may be worth sticking in Management and Infrastructure, so if you want to move it, feel free.
I have often thought about this and haven't had a good way of explaining it, so hopefully it will make sense.
GNE often pump prime certain route corridors with one or two services. As well as this, they introduce less frequent services, which in several instances are then withdrawn after a short period of time, due to a lack of customers.
Using basic maths and one or two corridors, I am unsure as to why the less frequent routes would ever attract passengers.
THE ROUTE FROM PARK LANE TO FULWELL MILL I.E NEWCASTLE ROAD
On this stretch of road, you have the X3, 9 and 35/35a. Using basic ratio, the services are: 2 : 2 : 6 ph. Excluding passengers traveling beyond Park Lane or Fulwell Mill, the probability of getting anything other than the 35/35a is very low. Even with the X3 and 9 evenly spread out over that 15 min period upto 2 35s can take these passengers. When you factor in the metro to Seaburn the ratio is then 2 : 2 : 6 : 5 ph.
Yet GNE seem surprised when passenger numbers are low on the X3.
THE ROUTE FROM PARK LANE TO GRANGETOWN/RYHOPE
On this stretch of road, there are the 38, 39, 42, 60, 61, 238 and X7. Again, using basic ratio, the services are: 2 : 3 : 6 : 6 : 6 : 1 : 1 ph.
These services have just been changed/adapted, but it doesn't take a genius to work out which will be the most popular, which ones will vanish without a whimper, or if you turn up at a bus stop which services will turn up 1st and I haven't even looked at the Stagecoach or Arriva services which can get you to Grangetown or Ryhope.
If apply this same method to other areas, looking at services which were quietly stopped, it is pretty obvious why they were stopped and why certain routes don't make money.
Durham Road in Sunderland with the 20s, 35s and X35 opposed to the 71?
There will be plenty of other examples too between towns, villages and/or cities.
One other point to make about in frequent services compared to infrequent ones.
Imagine you are in Seaham with a red zone ticket and have just missed the 238 to Houghton, so you have a choice of waiting another 60 minutes for the next one or jumping on a super frequent bus to Sunderland and change, knowing you will be home before the next 238 gets anywhere near Seaham...
Having such a mixed network of frequent and infrequent services is going to cause these continual changes and unless something major happens, we as passengers will continue to see change after change after change on the services.
(01 May 2013, 3:04 pm)Andreos1 This may be worth sticking in Management and Infrastructure, so if you want to move it, feel free.
I have often thought about this and haven't had a good way of explaining it, so hopefully it will make sense.
GNE often pump prime certain route corridors with one or two services. As well as this, they introduce less frequent services, which in several instances are then withdrawn after a short period of time, due to a lack of customers.
Using basic maths and one or two corridors, I am unsure as to why the less frequent routes would ever attract passengers.
THE ROUTE FROM PARK LANE TO FULWELL MILL I.E NEWCASTLE ROAD
On this stretch of road, you have the X3, 9 and 35/35a. Using basic ratio, the services are: 2 : 2 : 6 ph. Excluding passengers traveling beyond Park Lane or Fulwell Mill, the probability of getting anything other than the 35/35a is very low. Even with the X3 and 9 evenly spread out over that 15 min period upto 2 35s can take these passengers. When you factor in the metro to Seaburn the ratio is then 2 : 2 : 6 : 5 ph.
Yet GNE seem surprised when passenger numbers are low on the X3.
THE ROUTE FROM PARK LANE TO GRANGETOWN/RYHOPE
On this stretch of road, there are the 38, 39, 42, 60, 61, 238 and X7. Again, using basic ratio, the services are: 2 : 3 : 6 : 6 : 6 : 1 : 1 ph.
These services have just been changed/adapted, but it doesn't take a genius to work out which will be the most popular, which ones will vanish without a whimper, or if you turn up at a bus stop which services will turn up 1st and I haven't even looked at the Stagecoach or Arriva services which can get you to Grangetown or Ryhope.
If apply this same method to other areas, looking at services which were quietly stopped, it is pretty obvious why they were stopped and why certain routes don't make money.
Durham Road in Sunderland with the 20s, 35s and X35 opposed to the 71?
There will be plenty of other examples too between towns, villages and/or cities.
One other point to make about in frequent services compared to infrequent ones.
Imagine you are in Seaham with a red zone ticket and have just missed the 238 to Houghton, so you have a choice of waiting another 60 minutes for the next one or jumping on a super frequent bus to Sunderland and change, knowing you will be home before the next 238 gets anywhere near Seaham...
Having such a mixed network of frequent and infrequent services is going to cause these continual changes and unless something major happens, we as passengers will continue to see change after change after change on the services.
(01 May 2013, 3:04 pm)Andreos1 This may be worth sticking in Management and Infrastructure, so if you want to move it, feel free.
I have often thought about this and haven't had a good way of explaining it, so hopefully it will make sense.
GNE often pump prime certain route corridors with one or two services. As well as this, they introduce less frequent services, which in several instances are then withdrawn after a short period of time, due to a lack of customers.
Using basic maths and one or two corridors, I am unsure as to why the less frequent routes would ever attract passengers.
THE ROUTE FROM PARK LANE TO FULWELL MILL I.E NEWCASTLE ROAD
On this stretch of road, you have the X3, 9 and 35/35a. Using basic ratio, the services are: 2 : 2 : 6 ph. Excluding passengers traveling beyond Park Lane or Fulwell Mill, the probability of getting anything other than the 35/35a is very low. Even with the X3 and 9 evenly spread out over that 15 min period upto 2 35s can take these passengers. When you factor in the metro to Seaburn the ratio is then 2 : 2 : 6 : 5 ph.
Yet GNE seem surprised when passenger numbers are low on the X3.
THE ROUTE FROM PARK LANE TO GRANGETOWN/RYHOPE
On this stretch of road, there are the 38, 39, 42, 60, 61, 238 and X7. Again, using basic ratio, the services are: 2 : 3 : 6 : 6 : 6 : 1 : 1 ph.
These services have just been changed/adapted, but it doesn't take a genius to work out which will be the most popular, which ones will vanish without a whimper, or if you turn up at a bus stop which services will turn up 1st and I haven't even looked at the Stagecoach or Arriva services which can get you to Grangetown or Ryhope.
If apply this same method to other areas, looking at services which were quietly stopped, it is pretty obvious why they were stopped and why certain routes don't make money.
Durham Road in Sunderland with the 20s, 35s and X35 opposed to the 71?
There will be plenty of other examples too between towns, villages and/or cities.
One other point to make about in frequent services compared to infrequent ones.
Imagine you are in Seaham with a red zone ticket and have just missed the 238 to Houghton, so you have a choice of waiting another 60 minutes for the next one or jumping on a super frequent bus to Sunderland and change, knowing you will be home before the next 238 gets anywhere near Seaham...
Having such a mixed network of frequent and infrequent services is going to cause these continual changes and unless something major happens, we as passengers will continue to see change after change after change on the services.
I'm trying to say that for all these new services, if you run them alongside an existing service which is more frequent, then they will not work.
GNE have stated that the service isn't covering fuel or wages and I think this is the reason why.
Take Newcastle Road as an example. Using round numbers for ease, 20 passengers ph will travel between Park Lane and Fulwell Mill using an even spread. With the ratio of buses between the two points at the moment, 4 will use the x3, 4 will use the 9 and 12 will use the 35.
That's using an even spread, which we all know doesn't happen in the real world. Passengers get the most frequent bus between the two points, in this case the 35.
For the X3 to be a success, it needs to compete on an even playing field with alternative services. It can't compete between these two points for frequency and it is arguable it can't compete between Sunderland and Newcastle with the metro for frequency either. The only place it can offer a viable alternative is from Boldon Colliery to Newcastle, hence the introduction of the x36 to run alongside it.
There are countless similar examples of this happening around the GNE area time and time again, more so since the 2006 changes.
Edit.
Looking at it from a different point of view, look at the Arriva X2 versus the GNE 21 and x21 at any point between Newcastle, Chester and Durham.
100 passengers spread equally per hour between the services and there is only going to be one winner if the ratio is 6 : 2 : 1
I agree and disagree.
I understand the points made about ratios and likelihood of getting on a certain service rather than another, but I think there's also another side to it. I speak from my own experience, and from things I have witnessed in the past.
Chester Road in Sunderland is another example. Up until the cutting-off point (at the Royal Hospital), there are 17 bus services - demonstrated by the timetable shown here. Admittedly, some of those are peak time services only, but a great deal aren't. From experience, I can't say that passengers alighting at the bus stop given on that timetable show a great deal about customer loyalty to a service, its succession, or anything like that. With my example, I can't make a correlation between frequency - varying from every 10 minutes to every 30 minutes - and succession rate.
Further up the road, there are 9 bus services - again shown in the timetable here. The same thing applies.
I understand your point that, if a journey is unplanned/unscheduled, a customer is most likely to get the next bus that turns up that goes to the place they want to go. The exception? If the infrequent bus due after it manages to get to the other place first. Your example of Newcastle Road is a prime example of what I'm talking about - see here for timetable, you can see journey times. The 35 takes 17 minutes to get to Park Lane from Newcastle Road. The 9, E2 and X3 take between 10 and 12 minutes, but in my experience, can get there even sooner than that. If I miss the infrequent 9 service and a 35 is due in 5 minutes or so, with an X3 due 10 minutes after that, chances are, I'll just wait for the X3. From knowledge of the service, I know it can often get to Fulwell a few minutes early, and can get to Park Lane sooner than it is scheduled to arrive. I'm saving all of a minute. People may not want to do that because they know the 35 has arrived whereas there is always the chance the X3 will be late, and as such, the 35 will arrive before the X3, but I've always done it that way.
If planning my journey, I'll always choose the fastest option available and plan my journey around that - providing that the fastest option can still get me there before the slower option including waiting time at a given place! The 21/X21 is a prime example of that to Chester-le-Street or Durham.
Don't forget that as a general rule, the more frequent the service the greater number of resources, thus greater operating cost, too. And ticket machine data gives operators a wealth of detail regarding travel patterns, so stronger routes on corridors can be identified.
There is a strong argument for simplification: rightly or otherwise, industry experience has shown that 'Simple and frequent' services have more chance of attracting non-bus users. For instance, I can't remember the last time I looked at the timetable for a coast road bus in North Tyneside. Even though each route is only every 15, such are the combined timetables, the corridor draws in loads of commuters from nearby estates.
I made a point about corridors and buses using it - being percieved badly like in the case of the 21 or 27. If buses along that corridor have the same start and end point, disruption causes chaos for that entire route.
If there is a corridor but buses have a different start point, but the same end point, disruption or perception isnt as bad. If there are problems in say Cleadon, then the impact will be only felt by the 35, other routes along Newcastle Road wont be affected.
As for the point about Daniel chosing the X3 over the 35, I reckon your in a minority. I dont imagine normal passengers wait 5-10 mins to get there 1 min quicker
(01 May 2013, 6:23 pm)Andreos1 As for the point about Daniel chosing the X3 over the 35, I reckon your in a minority. I dont imagine normal passengers wait 5-10 mins to get there 1 min quicker
(01 May 2013, 6:23 pm)Andreos1 As for the point about Daniel chosing the X3 over the 35, I reckon your in a minority. I dont imagine normal passengers wait 5-10 mins to get there 1 min quicker
Im not knocking what you do, I just cant see the majority of people doing that standing in the rain on Newcastle Road or on John/Fawcett Street with their shopping...
Building on this a bit more, if the more frequent services are the ones which are branded in a bid to build brand loyalty, if brand loyalty is percieved to work, then it makes sense the 35 will be the most popular
(01 May 2013, 6:41 pm)Acky81 Just heard 39 going to be running every ten minutes at peak times from June 2nd!!
(01 May 2013, 6:41 pm)Acky81 Just heard 39 going to be running every ten minutes at peak times from June 2nd!!
(30 Apr 2013, 8:48 pm)lesybear2002 I quite like the Citaros but theres never a day goes by without a branded bus from another route on it. In the past couple of days Ive seen a Tyne Expess B7 and a Fab 57 B10 on it.
(30 Apr 2013, 8:48 pm)lesybear2002 I quite like the Citaros but theres never a day goes by without a branded bus from another route on it. In the past couple of days Ive seen a Tyne Expess B7 and a Fab 57 B10 on it.
Just a thought regarding the 39's frequency increase.
With the Drifter/Saltwell Park getting Streetlites and the Versas from those services going on the Washington Street Shuttle. Which will then make the MPD's on that service available.
As temporary measure until the 39 gets newer bigger buses, they receive some of the MPD's which are already in the Doxford Clipper Base Colour of silver.
or what I said last week.
8 go to chester le street for the 34/34A/71 which would then lead to the withdrawl of more DAF's and SPD's and the rest go to Peterlee to replace the 2000/01 MPD's on the East Durham Network.
Morning all, just passed Washington Depot and it looks like there is a purple B10 parked outside.
Regards
(on 4937)
NK55 OLM is on the X21 to Newcastle got a picture which will be posted on my Flickr soon, anyone interested my Flickr name is the same as my name on here
