Go North East - Future Order Predictions

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Well, rather than posting on the New StreetDeck / ADL E400MMC forum to keep topics relevant, I thought that I'd post my guess on here. Given the lockdown etc and the likely cost savings that will need to be made moving forward, if economic "green shoots" of recovery appear and allow Go North East to further invest in services and new vehicles, I'd predict that something akin to the following could happen but perhaps around 2022.............

New Order Option 1
  • 15x ADL E400MMC or Wright StreetDeck OM936 to Washington for X-Lines X1 -- Was originally intended to receive a "heavier" vehicle type this year but forefitted due to X30 interworking pattern requirements for low height deckers.
  • 17x Wright StreetDeck OM934 for Cobalt & Coast 309/310/311 - Includes 1x spare.
The above would then mean:
  • 14x Wright StreetDecks (OM934) transferred from Washington to Deptford and allocated to Service 56. This includes 1x spare.
  • 1x Wright StreetDeck (OM934) transferred from Washington to Percy Main as additional Cobalt & Coast spare alongside new example.
  • Ex Cobalt & Coast B9TLs partially repainted (Blues to Greens) with new TVT brand but silver base. These then upgrade the Tyne Valley Ten and have already been refurbished.
  • Ex 56 B9TLs either refurbished and or deep cleaned. These are then transferred to Percy Main for the Coaster.
  • Ex Coaster B5LHs & Ex TVT/TTX B9TLs then either cascaded elsewhere within Go North East or another Go-Ahead subsidiary.
New Order Option 2
  • 18x Wright StreetDeck OM934 for Cobalt & Coast 309/310/311 - Includes 2x spares
  • 14x Wright StreetDeck OM934 for service 56 - Includes 1x spare
Then same cascades as option 1 (minus X1 as that route would be unchanged under option 2).
(14 Aug 2020, 7:02 pm)L469 YVK Wrote: Well, rather than posting on the New StreetDeck / ADL E400MMC forum to keep topics relevant, I thought that I'd post my guess on here. Given the lockdown etc and the likely cost savings that will need to be made moving forward, if economic "green shoots" of recovery appear and allow Go North East to further invest in services and new vehicles, I'd predict that something akin to the following could happen but perhaps around 2022.............

New Order Option 1
  • 15x ADL E400MMC or Wright StreetDeck OM936 to Washington for X-Lines X1 -- Was originally intended to receive a "heavier" vehicle type this year but forefitted due to X30 interworking pattern requirements for low height deckers.
  • 17x Wright StreetDeck OM934 for Cobalt & Coast 309/310/311 - Includes 1x spare.
The above would then mean:
  • 14x Wright StreetDecks (OM934) transferred from Washington to Deptford and allocated to Service 56.
  • 1x Wright StreetDeck (OM934) transferred from Washington to Percy Main as additional Cobalt & Coast spare alongside new example.
  • Ex Cobalt & Coast B9TLs partially repainted (Blues to Greens) with new TVT brand but silver base. These then upgrade the Tyne Valley Ten and have already been refurbished.
  • Ex 56 B9TLs either refurbished and or deep cleaned. These are then transferred to Percy Main for the Coaster.
  • Ex Coaster B5LHs & Ex TVT/TTX B9TLs then either cascaded elsewhere within Go North East or another Go-Ahead subsidiary.
New Order Option 2
  • 18x Wright StreetDeck OM934 for Cobalt & Coast 309/310/311 - Includes 2x spares
  • 14x Wright StreetDeck OM934 for service 56 - Includes 2x spares
Then same cascades as option 1 (minus X1 as that route would be unchanged under option 2).

I'd definitely lean towards option 2, unless there is an issue with the OM934 StreetDecks on the X1, which honestly I don't expect there to be, I don't think they'd bother changing them out. 

I also doubt they'd put the B9s on the Coaster, assuming the trial of the hybrid removal goes well, I'd expect them to receive an interior upgrade and stay put.

I do think if the Cobalts get new vehicles, the B9s would end up on the TVT as that would save on refurb costs.
I really can't see any new deckers for a while personally. The minibus fleet is aging badly and will need replacing by 2022 and there's also the Omnicities, Citaros and early Versas all due or starting to be due by then. Realistically no deckers really need to be replaced before 2026 now which are in frontline work.
I agree with Storx, apart from 11 E200 MMCs, we're getting 36 - 37 brand new double deckers, so after all of them are delivered, there's really no need for any more double deckers. I can see some more full size single deckers in the future, most likely Enviros for service 4 or even for X20 with 672 - 678 transferred back to Percy Main for Little Coasters routes.

Given the financial situation, I would prefer if some of the buses were just refurbished, similar to what they've just done to the Venture brand i.e new livery, cab door and cove panel information. It's badly needed on the Streetlites with those large and bare cove panels. It would really brighten them up and is much cheaper than buying new buses. Maybe some of the older Streetlites/ Versa's may recieve a full refurb with USB etc. but I really don't think GNE will be splashing the cash on new buses for a while now.
(14 Aug 2020, 10:07 pm)Storx Wrote: I really can't see any new deckers for a while personally. The minibus fleet is aging badly and will need replacing by 2022 and there's also the Omnicities, Citaros and early Versas all due or starting to be due by then. Realistically no deckers really need to be replaced before 2026 now which are in frontline work.

All of the Citaros, barring the 63 plates are expected to go by the end of the year. The fact that the Omnicities are getting Euro 6 upgrades still suggests they'll be sticking around quite a bit longer. 

I can't really see them replacing the minibuses any time soon, even the oldest one is only 11 years old. If they were, the only ones I could see them replacing are the older style Solos, and there's only a few of them

(14 Aug 2020, 10:40 pm)Adtrainsam Wrote: I agree with Storx, apart from 11 E200 MMCs, we're getting 36 - 37 brand new double deckers, so after all of them are delivered, there's really no need for any more double deckers. I can see some more full size single deckers in the future, most likely Enviros for service 4 or even for X20 with 672 - 678 transferred back to Percy Main for Little Coasters routes.

Given the financial situation, I would prefer if some of the buses were just refurbished, similar to what they've just done to the Venture brand i.e new livery, cab door and cove panel information. It's badly needed on the Streetlites with those large and bare cove panels. It would really brighten them up and is much cheaper than buying new buses. Maybe some of the older Streetlites/ Versa's may recieve a full refurb with USB etc. but I really don't think GNE will be splashing the cash on new buses for a while now.

I personally think the large, bare cove panels on the Streetlites look 10x better than what the likes of Arriva have done with theirs. They're too large to put a full vinyl on, and look stupid with the small frames on. Better off leaving them blank IMO
(14 Aug 2020, 10:40 pm)Adtrainsam Wrote: I agree with Storx, apart from 11 E200 MMCs, we're getting 36 - 37 brand new double deckers, so after all of them are delivered, there's really no need for any more double deckers. I can see some more full size single deckers in the future, most likely Enviros for service 4 or even for X20 with 672 - 678 transferred back to Percy Main for Little Coasters routes.

Given the financial situation, I would prefer if some of the buses were just refurbished, similar to what they've just done to the Venture brand i.e new livery, cab door and cove panel information. It's badly needed on the Streetlites with those large and bare cove panels. It would really brighten them up and is much cheaper than buying new buses. Maybe some of the older Streetlites/ Versa's may recieve a full refurb with USB etc. but I really don't think GNE will be splashing the cash on new buses for a while now.

Personally if I was going to guess stuff, I'd have a bet on the 5 and 50 as they've just upgraded the Scania's to Euro 6 and I can't see whoever funded them being happy with them being replaced with Streetlites or another handdown. At the same time I can't see the Scania's being on there in 2025 neither when they're 19 year old especially when there's problem with parts already.

Then there's the problem that the X6 and X7 don't have any buses atm and don't have any planned for it neither, I don't believe, so definitely an oppurtunity there so imagine that some investment will go there.

That's my guess though but agree on refurbishments there's quite a lot of the fleet which are realistically past a half life refurbishment age now (Versa's and some Solo's in particular).

streetdeckfan Wrote:I can't really see them replacing the minibuses any time soon, even the oldest one is only 11 years old. If they were, the only ones I could see them replacing are the older style Solos, and there's only a few of them

If I'm right minibuses traditionally only have a depreciation and life expectancy of 12 years, it could even be 10 - I'm not 100% sure on that but it's definitely not 15 so 698 - 704 are already pretty much there espeically in 2022. Then there's the missing X6/X7 solos and the issue with contracts wanting newer buses (not sure what the age is though) if they end up winning back the W1, W2, W3, 335, Washington Locals etc or whatever routes they've currently lost.

Mini - 10 Year or 12 Year
Midi - 12 Year
Fullsize / Decker - 15 Year

I believe anyway.
(14 Aug 2020, 10:58 pm)Storx Wrote: If I'm right minibuses traditionally only have a depreciation and life expectancy of 12 years, it could even be 10 - I'm not 100% sure on that but it's definitely not 15.

Mini - 10 Year or 12 Year
Midi - 12 Year
Fullsize / Decker - 15 Year

I believe anyway.

I think it's 12 years, but I can see them keeping the Solo SRs a bit longer than that, probably up to the 15 year mark, hopefully by then Optare may have a new model out so it wouldn't just be a like for like replacement.

I suppose they could replace them with Streetlite Wheel Forwards, but I can't see that happening
(14 Aug 2020, 11:06 pm)streetdeckfan Wrote: I think it's 12 years, but I can see them keeping the Solo SRs a bit longer than that, probably up to the 15 year mark, hopefully by then Optare may have a new model out so it wouldn't just be a like for like replacement.

I suppose they could replace them with Streetlite Wheel Forwards, but I can't see that happening

There's the short Enviro 200 MMC which they could possibly get either which was the replacement for the MPD. Would be ideal for the X-Lines X6 / X7 / X20 or even the 19 which is still a mixture of Omnicities and Solos.

I know they've been trialed on the 19 before in the past - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wsw6oODaGHQ.
(14 Aug 2020, 11:19 pm)Storx Wrote: There's the short Enviro 200 MMC which they could possibly get either which was the replacement for the MPD. Would be ideal for the X-Lines X6 / X7 / X20 or even the 19 which is still a mixture of Omnicities and Solos.

I know they've been trialed on the 19 before in the past - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wsw6oODaGHQ.

Is there any reason why the X20 needs a small vehicle like the Solo? Didn't they operate with L94s in the past?
(14 Aug 2020, 11:28 pm)streetdeckfan Wrote: Is there any reason why the X20 needs a small vehicle like the Solo? Didn't they operate with L94s in the past?

Not too sure, just not the numbers I guess hence why it got axed the first time around. The fact it was with a capacity of 7 during Covid and also had the Langley Park section bolted on probably says it's not doing too well nowadays neither.

Could always go for a mid length Enviro MMC 200 though ie. 9.7m or 10.4m if you wanted a slightly bigger bus.

It was L94's though
(14 Aug 2020, 11:38 pm)Storx Wrote: Not too sure, just not the numbers I guess hence why it got axed the first time around. The fact it was with a capacity of 7 during Covid and also had the Langley Park section bolted on probably says it's not doing too well nowadays neither.

Could always go for a mid length Enviro MMC 200 though ie. 9.7m or 10.4m if you wanted a slightly bigger bus.

It was L94's though

For a lot of routes, it's not the length that's the issue, it's the width. And that's one area where the Solo excels.

I might be wrong in thinking this, but I believe because the Solos are wheel forward, it means they can get round tighter bends than a door forward vehicle of the same length.
Enthusiast hat off....

If history tells us anything, especially if we look back to the last financial crisis you tend to reinvest in more profitable routes. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see new stock on the 21 etc and the cascades onto other routes as opposed to investing in new buses for routes that don’t turn a huge profit and aren’t likely to see a growth in an economic slowdown.
Wistfully stuck in the 90s
(15 Aug 2020, 12:03 am)streetdeckfan Wrote: For a lot of routes, it's not the length that's the issue, it's the width. And that's one area where the Solo excels.

I might be wrong in thinking this, but I believe because the Solos are wheel forward, it means they can get round tighter bends than a door forward vehicle of the same length.

Yeah that is true with the wheel, mostly for tight estates etc. However I believemost the Solo if not all the Solo routes currently used to be ran by MPD's which are the predecessor of the new Enviro 200 MMC. Quite a few solo routes could easily have wider buses but was probably more the fact that GNE were just buying Optare buses at the time. Also the shortest Enviro (8.7m) is shorter than the shortest Solo (9.25m) and also narrower (2.47m vs 2.5m) excluding slimlines.

All the Percy Main network could easily be ran by them, the same as the X6, X7 and X20 which have all had deckers or full length singles on at times and they're the routes that are likely if any to get newer buses.

Venture is out and I can't see Peterlee or Washington getting replacements as their fine for awhile, I'm not sure on the Hexham routes and the contract terms but they used to be MPD so don't see an issue there.

Genuinely don't see any issues with them anywhere with GNE, could even possibly see other routes downgraded to minis at some point, does the 34/34A really need Versa's for example and I believe they have some of the oldest in the fleet which will need replacement soon enough especially with Covid expected long term drops.

Have to see what happens though.
(15 Aug 2020, 12:35 am)Ambassador Wrote: Enthusiast hat off....

If history tells us anything, especially if we look back to the last financial crisis you tend to reinvest in more profitable routes. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see new stock on the 21 etc and the cascades onto other routes as opposed to investing in new buses for routes that don’t turn a huge profit and aren’t likely to see a growth in an economic slowdown.

21 won't get an upgrade for quite a while yet, I reckon it'll be another 5 years at least before they get touched. 

How profitable are the 10s? They seemed to have good passenger numbers pre-covid so I'd imagine they were doing well. Same with the 56.
(15 Aug 2020, 12:39 am)streetdeckfan Wrote: 21 won't get an upgrade for quite a while yet, I reckon it'll be another 5 years at least before they get touched. 

How profitable are the 10s? They seemed to have good passenger numbers pre-covid so I'd imagine they were doing well. Same with the 56.

The current unchanged stock on there tells you all you need to know really. They may turn a small profit atm but not enough to justify investment or growth. 

We’re now in a huge recession, one that makes earlier collapses seem like a blip combined with an entire change of mindset about how we commute and work plus a collapse in confidence in public transport.

Really interesting to see where MG and the executive team predict growth can follow investment, sure our Dan is already on the case  Undecided
Wistfully stuck in the 90s
(15 Aug 2020, 12:35 am)Ambassador Wrote: Enthusiast hat off....

If history tells us anything, especially if we look back to the last financial crisis you tend to reinvest in more profitable routes. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see new stock on the 21 etc and the cascades onto other routes as opposed to investing in new buses for routes that don’t turn a huge profit and aren’t likely to see a growth in an economic slowdown.

tbf though didn't the opposite happen haha.

With GNE didn't the 2, 35, 39 and X2 all get upgraded 2008/2009. Plus the Drifter and Saltwell Park which both badly needed upgraded regardless with the nasty Darts on both.

Arriva pretty much renewed it's whole minibus fleet in the period, can't imagine them being their most profitable routes either.

I can't comment on specific routes with Stagecoach as I don't follow them much but didn't they spend money on Hartlepool and South Shields which I can't imagine being their most profitable routes either and got new buses for the 1.

Some routes might have a better case now as Optare, Wright and Alexander Dennis will be begging for work so a new bus for some on the edge route at full price might not be viable but with a good discount might be just worth the risk.
(14 Aug 2020, 11:38 pm)Storx Wrote: Not too sure, just not the numbers I guess hence why it got axed the first time around. The fact it was with a capacity of 7 during Covid and also had the Langley Park section bolted on probably says it's not doing too well nowadays neither.

Could always go for a mid length Enviro MMC 200 though ie. 9.7m or 10.4m if you wanted a slightly bigger bus.

It was L94's though
Langley park section has gone from 60 mins (when it was the 14), to 30 mins albeit with smaller capacity solos. X20 used to be run by crook with the old pronto B7s, was rather busy but got chopped in favour of additional X21.
I really cant see all the citaros being withdrawn by the end of the year, excluding the 63 plates which are on the 4, there is 62 citaros to replace, that would either mean vehicles from elsewhere in the Go Ahead group being sourced and brought in to replace or brand new buses being ordered, i cant see 62 new buses being ordered at this time so the citaros could be around a bit longer, i think we will definitely see only single decks being ordered for the next few intakes and if newer deckers are required i feel these would be sourced from elsewhere and refurbished if needed, we know the 26/27 citaros are being replaced by deckers but there is a lot of other routes run with citaros (57,X84,9,35,55,61 to name some) and will need replacements in the next couple of years
(15 Aug 2020, 6:24 am)Stanleyone Wrote: Langley park section has gone from 60 mins (when it was the 14), to 30 mins albeit with smaller capacity solos. X20 used to be run by crook with the old pronto B7s, was rather busy but got chopped in favour of additional X21.

At the cost of the 13 going hourly instead though, quite a large capacity decrease from Langley Park really, 3 full size singles (quite often deckers) to 1 full size single (sometimes a decker) and 2 minibuses an hour but Langley Park probably doesn't need 3 full size buses to Durham; Sacriston, Plawsworth and Witton Gilbert have their own routes (X5/X15 - 16 - 21/X21/50).

Apologies it was the Pronto B7's my mistake.

(15 Aug 2020, 9:53 am)N1cholas Wrote: I really cant see all the citaros being withdrawn by the end of the year, excluding the 63 plates which are on the 4, there is 62 citaros to replace, that would either mean vehicles from elsewhere in the Go Ahead group being sourced and brought in to replace or brand new buses being ordered, i cant see 62 new buses being ordered at this time so the citaros could be around a bit longer, i think we will definitely see only single decks being ordered for the next few intakes and if newer deckers are required i feel these would be sourced from elsewhere and refurbished if needed, we know the 26/27 citaros are being replaced by deckers but there is a lot of other routes run with citaros (57,X84,9,35,55,61 to name some) and will need replacements in the next couple of years

Has there ever been plans for the Citaros on the 9, 35 and 55 to be removed this year. Agreed on ex London stock though (hopefully nothing stupid like last time - Dual Door Vikings on the 21) mainly to get arid of the remaining B7TL's and Omnidekkas for schools.
(15 Aug 2020, 11:40 am)Storx Wrote: At the cost of the 13 going hourly instead though, quite a large capacity decrease from Langley Park really, 3 full size singles (quite often deckers) to 1 full size single (sometimes a decker) and 2 minibuses an hour but Langley Park probably doesn't need 3 full size buses to Durham; Sacriston, Plawsworth and Witton Gilbert have their own routes (X5/X15 - 16 - 21/X21/50).

Apologies it was the Pronto B7's my mistake.


Has there ever been plans for the Citaros on the 9, 35 and 55 to be removed this year. Agreed on ex London stock though (hopefully nothing stupid like last time - Dual Door Vikings on the 21) mainly to get arid of the remaining B7TL's and Omnidekkas for schools.
Believe the plan was to remove all 07 bluestar citaros and the 06 plates. However with 53 vehicles acquired over the next few months, expect about the same number to be withdrawn, which include quite a few citaros