(07 Feb 2019, 9:30 am)RBZ 5459 wrote Yes the end bid was only successful for 32 vehicles. 

When the bid was submitted for 105 vehicles, Stagecoach revealed that the investment would be for four key routes serving "Manchester city centre, Manchester Airport, Manchester Piccadilly railway station, six hospitals and two universities". On the back of only 32 vehicles being won, Stagecoach have revised that to be for only two routes serving "Manchester city centre, Manchester Airport, five hospitals and two universities".

I believe they've also stated that all 32 will run from Sharston, although that doesn't preclude transfers of work from another depot. This strongly suggests the 24 hour 43 will be one route, starting at the Airport, serving Christies and continuing via Oxford Road serving the MRI complex (4 seperate hospitals) and then the main Manchester University campus and the original MMU site at All Saints before continuing to Piccadilly Gardens. Depending on exact times within the "Frequent intervals" section, the 43 has a PVR of between 17 & 19 buses, plus something such high profile would need at least two spares, so roughly 20 buses in total. That leaves 12 to serve a route incorporating Piccadilly Rail. At present, Sharston don't run near the Station, with the nearest logical route being MagicBus (Hyde Road depot) 147 from West Didsbury, via the same route as 43 to Charles Street (thus serving the same Hospitals and University buildings). From Charles Street it serves Sackville Street and a short stretch of Whitworth Street (serving another M'cr University property) before crossing to Fairfield Street alongside the Station. This has a PVR of 9 or 10, so could fit vehicle wise. Any other service would be either brand new or see at least the majority of services diverted away from Piccadilly Gardens.
There is also the - potentially major - question of how the 73 shortfall affects the other avowed plan to transfer existing "low emission" buses to other south Manchester, Trafford and Salford routes? What constitutes "low emission"? and does it mean 73 "more" such buses?

Politically, the whole thing seems a mixed bag. As regards this Stagecoach bid; they obviously went ahead with the bid despite no movement on Bus Reform. Does this mean the 32 is guaranteed no matter what and if Franchising is rejected before any public consultation, Mr. Hammond will suddenly find "new money" for the other 73? 

The other bids are all interesting in their own way; I've already mentioned First will use theirs on the 582 currently run (mainly) with 41 seater B7RLEs, with the occasional 'decker needed at peak times. Their bid works out at £137,260 per bus - infrastructure is obviously subject to ecomonies of scale, so could be ignored in this context. Of course, the local bus haters on the MEN comments thread have managed to add £1,647,000 to £375,000 and get £15 million in asking why their taxes should be spent on the private bus industry - especially a company that is (reportedly) selling up and moving out!

MCT's bid for just three buses works out at only slightly less (£134k) despite them only running Tendered services and the full fleet comprising Solos and swb E200s (29 seats?). AFAIK, all the E200s at least are leased. Difficult to guess which route(s) these will serve as a lot of their work is in and around south Manchester where the tendered network is currently subject to frequent major changes, including PVR changes to a number of services.

GMCA's is even more intriguing as it works out at £154,000 per bus, roughly half way between First's figure for 41 seaters and Stagecoach's figure for (presumably) 75-80 seater 'deckers. The figure of 23 roughly fits with the erstwhile MetroShuttle, where the three existing e-buses (Versas) could be offset by three hybrid Versas at Stockport and one at Bolton. However, the new FreeBus only requires 14 buses + spare including the 3 e-Versas retained. The half dozen or so buses made redundant by this cut seem to have disappeared off the face of the earth, although they may be having a full revamp for planned cascade to other Tendered services - none of which require anything bigger than c30 seats. With that in mind (and assuming no YSBs are involved), 23 buses seems to many just for these. This combined with the high average cost would infer that some (at least 5?) would be for a desperately needed increase in peak services on the Leigh Guided Busway. This service has been an overwhelming success with more than *double* the patronage required to justify the business case, but the downside meaning (as a collegue from Swinton will atest) it is normal for up to 4 buses to pass full before one stops. No point in advertising 8+ buses an hour if you are waiting 30-35 minutes just for any spare capacity (ie. even when no delays en route). However, another Forum states that the LGB part of the bid *has* been rejected. Has the massive success of buses in persuading car owners onto public transport, got the Rail lobby rattled?

A well worn phrase I know, but as usual with such pronouncements "the devil will be in the detail"