(31 Aug 2021, 11:23 am)Andreos1 wrote I think frequency is a major part in someone using a service. I also think there are other factors to take in to account such a pricing, journey time, branding and any other conditioning factors that come from familiarity or something else.

I've mentioned ratio and probability in the past and I think it plays a part in the success (or lack of) with a particular service.
Old Durham Road is probably a key example. It has a mixture of frequent and in-frequent services and I'd hazard a guess that for someone travelling between Gateshead and the QE, they would end up on one of the more frequent buses such as the 56 or 57 as opposed to something like the 28 - regardless of any stand allocations at the Interchange.

It is probably why the likes of the 925, 938 etc never survived and why the 238 was withdrawn. The 238 was never going to compete between Sunderland and Seaham, versus the 60 and probably struggled for local trips too.

I genuinely don't think hub and spoke works as well as operators believe it does or want it to work.

I know someone who lives in the Roker/Fulwell area and who works in Seaham Business Park near Blast Beach. He doesn't drive. 
Whilst I'm not saying he deserves a bus to take him to/from work, I do know that using public transport is always his last resort.
He will do anything to get a lift, over using the bus.

The train isn't an option to/from Sunderland (despite it being quicker), due to the poor connectivity to other modes of transport at Seaham.

Yes, it is just one example - but it is possibly a snapshot of the issues commuters face in that because there's never been an established, regular connection between two points, operators think that should never be a regular connection between the two points.
Except, maybe there should be. Or at least something that is better than what we have now.

I think frequency can be a major part, but I don't think it can be the be-all and end-all, as it has often been marketed in the past. For me, it's just as important to make sure that proper thought goes into connections (in both directions) with less frequent services, but perhaps the ones that are used to get people to the high frequency service that takes them from A to B. When high frequency isn't appropriate, then the timing of terminus departures are key to me. Because when you're trying to attract people from the convenience of a car, you have to remember that they don't turn up to a car park and stand around for 25 minutes before their car is ready to depart.

If I use the 50 as an example from Durham, from 4pm onwards (which is generally the earliest daytime workers will leave work), you've just missed the 15.57, you've got the 16.32, 17.09, 17.39 and then 18.06 is the last one. So you end up in the situation where it's just far too tight for people finishing work on the hour/half past the hour (as shifts usually do) to catch any of those, and quite a long time for people be stood around waiting for the next one that is due.

You of course can split the journey at Chester-le-Street, but the X21 doesn't connect with the 50 (apart from the 17.16 out of Durham) nor the 8. The 8's Sunderland-bound departures from CLS are timetabled very close to the 50, rather than planning it so that it creates more of a clock-face frequency. Problems that still exist post 5th September.