(07 Nov 2023, 10:58 pm)mb134 wrote Won't reply to each service, but:

• I don't understand how the X8 is unsustainable between Blyth and Cramlington? It's not a section of the route that is at all impacted by the train, so it's surely just as sustainable as it is now? It's the only service between South Beach and Cramlington, as well as several other unique passenger flows. 
  
• Similar with the X7. It doesn't serve areas that are anywhere near the train stations in Blyth, and is the unique service along Amersham Road. Even with Seaton Delaval, a walk from Earsdon Avenue to the site of the station is 20 minutes while you'd already be passing Quorum on the X7. There will almost certainly be some impact, but the route is only served by one station on the line, and isn't this reportedly being delayed?
  
• On the X21, and to an extent the 1, I think there's a misunderstanding of the passenger numbers and flows on those services. There are lots of little hops, and lots of people who realistically aren't going to splash out on a train ticket when the bus is free. It's all well and good saying there's a station at Bedlington Station and one at Ashington, but if the train + walking time is more than the bus, then nobody is going to use it. Northumberland College, Wansbeck Hospital, Jubilee Industrial Estate, and the Welwyn are nowhere near the train station, yet the bus stops directly outside all of them (small walk for Jubilee), and will likely stop closer to their house too. There are also other huge passenger flows for the X21 in particular. Newbiggin to Ashington, Ashington to Bedlington, Ashington (Wansbeck Hospital, Milburn Road, The Elephant), Stakeford, Bedlington (Rothesay Terrace, Allgood Terrace, Front Street, Red House Farm/Meadowdale estates), and Nedderton to Newcastle, and all points on the route to Cramlington Industrial Estate where you often see crowds waiting/alighting in both directions at peak times. 
  

Going to use the map above, South Beach is quite well covered really, arguably anyone in Orange Zone is walking distance of the X11, which is a hell of a lot more reliable, as it is (reason I kind of think that corridor should be back up to 3 BPH). The pink zone is covered by the 309 towards Newcastle, and again is a hell of a lot more reliable at peak times and more frequent with the combination of the red zone doing the rail. Combine that with the fact it's a car usage area anyway, not sure there's going to be enough demand there to keep it going.

Arguably some areas are going to use the X11 anyway for Cramlington as it's much closer to Amersham Drive than walking down to the A1061.

Obviously I'm not saying there's no demand, not sure how much there will be if you take a chunk of the Newcastle traffic away then I could see that part becoming a bit unsustainable.

The X7 is the same, the buses are exceptionally quiet beyond Elsdon Avenue as it is - I do think they'll do well to that point, there could even be a case for upping the frequency upto 3 BPH tbh upto there so it ran something like the below with 1 or 2 BPH terminating short and then the other 1 continuing to Blyth. Seaton Delaval, Seghill, Burradon where the people are and away from the rail line are all pretty much served. It's only really New Hartley which would be affected.



Btw for the X21, technically you'd increase the frequency if you ran a clockwork timetable with the 1/2 to 4 BPH clean rather than jumping around but maybe there could be scope to up the 1 and 2 in frequency instead? Why bother sending buses to Newcastle if that's not where people want to be.