(20 Nov 2023, 12:00 am)Aaron21 wrote Why do most people think new Northern line is gonna kill the X20/X21/X22
You have LNER going to Morpeth/Alnmouth & Berwick but you don't see the X14/X15/X16/X18 losing passages do you.
This new Northern Line will not take passengers of the X20/X21/X22 cause the line doesn't even stay with them. The line if I'm right doesn't see them routes till Ashington and even then the X20 is the only service that does Newcastle to Regent Centre then non stop to just outside Ashington. The Northern line is to connect villages that have 1 or 2 bus services and to run a services. Not to take passenger of a bus route
The rail line will 100% take passengers from the buses.
See above, using stats from other parts of the country then the median distance someone walks to a station is 800m which means there's 50% of who do less and 50% who do more which is the inner circle of the two stations. The 85% percentile, which means there's 15% who do even further is 1.6km which is the outer circle.
I'm not saying that everyone is going to do it, as there's other factors, fares etc but if there's going to be people using them and if it's a success then the X21, in particular, could be in big trouble as the majority of the route is within the circles. For local journeys, there's also the 1 and 2 which exist which complicate things further. Why have a bus to Newcastle when no-one is going there and are only going to Bedlington, for example.
The X14, X15, X16 and X18 are 4 buses per an hour and serve multiple places beyond Morpeth. Not 7 buses like Ashington which mostly terminate there.
A better comparison would be Hexham which isn't too dissimilar to Ashington. That has 2 buses via the 10 and 1 bus via the 685 operating commercially between the two.
There's also a reason why there's no fast buses from Waldridge Park in Chester Le Street and Stobhill in Morpeth towards Newcastle, as the people are all on the train, so there's no demand.
https://chorley.gov.uk/media/2495/8-3-Ho...9686030000 - Stats from here.