(20 Nov 2023, 10:42 am)Storx wrote The rail line will 100% take passengers from the buses.
See above, using stats from other parts of the country then the median distance someone walks to a station is 800m which means there's 50% of who do less and 50% who do more which is the inner circle of the two stations. The 85% percentile, which means there's 15% who do even further is 1.6km which is the outer circle.
I'm not saying that everyone is going to do it, as there's other factors, fares etc but if there's going to be people using them and if it's a success then the X21, in particular, could be in big trouble as the majority of the route is within the circles. For local journeys, there's also the 1 and 2 which exist which complicate things further. Why have a bus to Newcastle when no-one is going there and are only going to Bedlington, for example.
The X14, X15, X16 and X18 are 4 buses per an hour and serve multiple places beyond Morpeth. Not 7 buses like Ashington which mostly terminate there.
A better comparison would be Hexham which isn't too dissimilar to Ashington. That has 2 buses via the 10 and 1 bus via the 685 operating commercially between the two.
There's also a reason why there's no fast buses from Waldridge Park in Chester Le Street and Stobhill in Morpeth towards Newcastle, as the people are all on the train, so there's no demand.
https://chorley.gov.uk/media/2495/8-3-Ho...9686030000 - Stats from here.
Any reason the Morpeth station only has the inner circle on this graphic?
If looking only at the inner circle of both the Ashington and Bedlington Station stations, then the impact doesn't look anywhere near the same.
Not sure either of the other examples stack up really, either. Yes the Morpeth express services serve other places afterwards, but the Ashington ones serve other places in the middle (Cramlington Industrial Estates, Nedderton, Bedlington, Choppington, Guide Post, Stakeford, Wansbeck Hospital, and also Newbiggin). Having witnessed the Morpeth express services daily for over a year, it's clear that they do very well on that section in particular where they are competing with the train. Buses will drop off and pick up a considerable amount through Morpeth throughout the peaks.
Same with CLS, if you slap your circles onto that station, I'd bet it would overlap with the 21/X21 route - yet they both do very well in CLS.
(20 Nov 2023, 11:14 am)MurdnunoC wrote To combat trains, buses, cars, and congestion between Newbiggin and Newcastle, I'd personally build two zeppelin terminals: one in Newbiggin, and one next to the Arena in Newcastle, and operate a congestion-busting, non-stop zeppelin service between Newcastle and Newbiggin.
Problem solved.
It doesn't go through the bustling metropolis of Bedlington Station so that's doomed from the outset.