Hmmm... I like maths, so let’s do some sums...

This looks to me like it could be a one-bus operation. Let’s say the bus does a trip from Thropton to Alnmouth for early commuters and back to Thropton; then another to Alnwick from Thropton just after 9am (when the pensioners’ passes have kicked in); then from Alnwick back to Thropton, where it continues on its loop into upper Coquetdale (dropping off tourists and collecting pensioners) and back to Rothbury. Then, three hours later, it does the whole thing in reverse (no pun intended!) (I know, that’s just four trips to Alnwick and Spirit have promised five, but bear with me for the purposes of this illustration). Then on Fridays and Saturdays the bus does an evening trip into Morpeth, and two round trips to Morpeth Sundays and Bank Holidays (but, for simplicity, let’s exclude Bank Holidays for the moment). By my reckoning, the bus would be on the road for ten hours a day, six days a week, plus the Sunday and weekend evening round trips; let’s call it 70 hours a week in total.

For simplicity, let’s say that it costs about £30 an hour to run a bus, split (roughly) one-third wages, one-third fuel, and one-third everything else (tyres, insurance, paying a loan for the bus back to the bank and saving up to eventually replace it). The bus needs to earn £2,100 per week to break even (£109K pa). (Let's assume the company owner does half the driving and he employs another driver and contracts out maintenance - so 'profit' = wages!).

Next, let’s assume that about half the passengers will be pensioners using passes, and that the county council reimburses Spirit at 50% of the average fare. ‘Half of a half’ means that pensioners must contribute one quarter of the revenue; fare-payers the rest. What must the average fare be and what will be a break even load?

My answer: Let’s say the average fare is £5. For each fare payer paying a fiver, each pensioner generates £2.50; so the ‘real’ average revenue per passenger is (£5 + £2.50)/2 = £3.75. So, to break even, the bus must carry eight passengers an hour, every hour. If the average fare is less, the loadings must be more.

So, the real question is: are there eight people who wish to commute regularly between Rothbury and Alnwick by bus for £50 a week? Are there eight pensioners who wish to travel to and from Rothbury every day? Are there eight tourists a day waiting to be taken from Alnwick to Rothbury for a tenner return?

If, as Spirit suggests, people are encouraged to use other services to connect, then I presume they’ll use Explorer or similar tickets – but the revenue split will result in lower revenue, unless more passengers are attracted.

I’m sorry, but if there was a viable bus load of passengers requiring these services, I’m fairly certain that a service would be being provided already (by either a large or small operator). If there was a small number of passengers wanting a bus, the County Council would have been under pressure to provide support for one. For numbers of up to four people, a shared taxi probably provides a better service.

Much as I Iike Rothbury and its environs (and who wouldn’t?), this just doesn’t look viable to me.