(05 Nov 2014, 1:03 pm)eezypeazy wrote You've hit the nail on the head there - the simple way to discourage motoring is to make it expensive; the easiest way to encourage modal shift is to make public transport relatively cheaper.
But also, let's not forget that it's not just about pricing, In my opinion, we're just at the start of the digital boom - these days, people shop on line, and visit retail centres for a leisure time experience. We're seeing a structural change in retail that is starting to impact on the uses to which we put our town and city centres -eg., rising numbers of smaller supermarkets rather than mega, out-of town stores; growing numbers of 'service' businesses (eg., barbers, fingernail bars, etc - ie, things you can't do on-line!) in shopping centres.
If motoring costs continue to become cheaper, and footfall in towns and shopping centres continues to fall as a result of the changing marketplace, then it's only going to be external factors - such as congestion charging - that can change the balance.
We live in interesting times!
Discouraging motoring by making it more expensive would surely restrict the dynamic forces of free-market economics - something that many in this country hold so dearly. I think congestion charges could work within larger cities, but beyond that will result in a lot of public outcry. Any government courageous enough to propose such a move will almost certainly see their popularity plummet and their majority in the House of Commons severely reduced. Although interesting as it may be, I think we both know it's unlikely to happen any time in the near future which means the onus is on transport providers to innovate new solutions to prevent (or encourage) modal shifts in either direction.
Making motoring more expensive also has another unintended consequence. As stated earlier, some switch to cars not by choice but by necessity due to work or other circumstances. Prohibiting the freedom of movement through cost has the potential downside of pricing people out of employment (or encouraging people out of work from pursuing employment opportunities). This has the obvious potential of placing additional burden on the welfare system at the expense of the taxpayer.