(08 Mar 2015, 7:58 am)Dan wrote Well I'd never say never... When Arriva (and Stagecoach NW) neglected their customers on the Tyne Valley, they were sharp to introduce a new express service which soon became rather popular indeed, stealing a lot of customers from the long established 685 service in the process.
Similarly, following the withdrawal of Arriva's 31 (etc), there was a gap in the market for journeys from Sunderland to Middlesbrough. As they had connections at all ends (albeit very few at the southern section), it's worked very well and proven to be a commercial success.
Resources are easily allocated elsewhere to allow for new commercial ventures to take place. It's the market research prior which determines whether it actually happens or not...
I think that there are other services in the North East that GNE are better equipped to tackle before the X12 - Northumberland for example.
It would be a mighty vehicle investment required to compete on the X12 (estimate at least 6 vehicles to even match frequency), with no close operating depot to aid it. The X85 worked as it had a base at each end to help with issues during the early and critical part of its life.
Realistically, due to the geography and lack of connections south of Durham, I suspect there is very little weight in any business case. The X12 would probably bear the compeititon well, due to the high levels of local connections in Durham and Teesside that feed into it.
I agree that it needs to more work, but I suspect an entry onto the Durham to Middlesbrough coridoor would provoke an 'OK1' type reaction. Extra buses would be sourced im sure.
I was once told that Arriva are limited to changing the actual timetable once a year due to agreements with Durham University - who, to be fair, play a big hand in what happens on there these days. I'd be very surprised if a revised timetable doesn't happen to appear sometime over the summer, as has been the case over the past two years.
On the bigger picture however, since the days of EC operation on the old X1, there is more time to operate the service compared to back then, but its fairly obvious that the X12 is carrying significantly more passengers than it did back in say 2008. Its not surprising that timekeeping issues are arising again due to sheer passenger volume.