(08 Mar 2015, 9:03 am)RobinHood wrote I think that there are other services in the North East that GNE are better equipped to tackle before the X12 - Northumberland for example.
It would be a mighty vehicle investment required to compete on the X12 (estimate at least 6 vehicles to even match frequency), with no close operating depot to aid it. The X85 worked as it had a base at each end to help with issues during the early and critical part of its life.
Realistically, due to the geography and lack of connections south of Durham, I suspect there is very little weight in any business case. The X12 would probably bear the compeititon well, due to the high levels of local connections in Durham and Teesside that feed into it.
I agree that it needs to more work, but I suspect an entry onto the Durham to Middlesbrough coridoor would provoke an 'OK1' type reaction. Extra buses would be sourced im sure.
I was once told that Arriva are limited to changing the actual timetable once a year due to agreements with Durham University - who, to be fair, play a big hand in what happens on there these days. I'd be very surprised if a revised timetable doesn't happen to appear sometime over the summer, as has been the case over the past two years.
On the bigger picture however, since the days of EC operation on the old X1, there is more time to operate the service compared to back then, but its fairly obvious that the X12 is carrying significantly more passengers than it did back in say 2008. Its not surprising that timekeeping issues are arising again due to sheer passenger volume.
I think GNE would have more chance in Northumberland either operating out of Percy Main or opening an outstation somewhere in Blyth or Bedlington (probably Cambois) with Percy Main being a home depot. They could go for several Arriva routes:
- Competing service with the X21 and between Bedlington and Newcastle, the X22 to provide faster journey times and a more reliable service with better vehicles such as Mercs or if a success, B9s.
- Competing service with the X4 / X5 / X10 / X11 providing quicker times than the X5 and similar to X4/X10/X11, and creating new link to EC Hospital in East Crammy. Deleval wouldn't be served tough. Could use Mercs as a starting foundation.
- Could develop service 19 more and even provide links to South Tyneside and Wearside.
- Further development of service 309 including more services (evening frequency increased) and 310's taking a hit on additional peak time Cobalt services (X39, short 309).
- Could develop links across Ashington, Bedlington and Cramlington and also compete with the 43 / 45 services through Dudley, Seatonburn and Wideopen