RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(07 Jun 2014, 10:22 am)aureolin wrote I completely agree, but I think ultimately they're going to have to.
What's being done at present is doing nothing but shortening the usable life of a Gemini by a third. I'd assume the investment is given by the Go Ahead group on the basis that the bus, over it's lifetime, more than pays for itself. After all no one is going to invest to make a loss.
I don't know a lot about it, but it'd be interesting to see how Stagecoach do it in West Scotland. They've got plenty of express coaches running round, and they seem massively popular.
Yes, I think you're right regarding the Go-Ahead group. As far as I know, at the start of each financial year, each bus operator that falls under the Go-Ahead group submits a 'bid' for new vehicles. This bid contains all the details of how much revenue the service generates which the new vehicles are intended for, the type of preferred vehicle (i.e. double deck, heavy weight, light weight etc), the assumed payback time, and I believe it is also planned right down to the cascades which will come of this, and ultimately the withdrawal and sale of some vehicles in the fleet.
I believe I was told at the time that Go North East / Go-Ahead intended to keep the Volvo B9TLs on the Tyne Tees Xpress for seven years (i.e. half of their expected "shell life"), prior to them taking a different role in the fleet - by which time the vehicles should have either paid for themselves or at least a substantial part of the payment. I'd expect that the vehicles would also be repainted during this time too, with the chance of a possible early refurbishment given the nature of the services they're allocated to.
Taking this into account, paired with the figures for coaches in
this post, it does make the investment into coaches seem unlikely.
If Go North East did expect to replace the vehicles after seven years (at a cost of £1.2m), they would expect to replace coaches (at a cost of £2.1m) after double that - fourteen years. By this time, technology perhaps could have advanced and the Tyne Tees Xpress - despite being an apparent 'prestigious' express service - would soon fall victim to having some of the eldest vehicles in the fleet. Likewise, you couldn't expect to generate much of a profit from those coaches either - whereas you possibly can with the buses still. Also the question of where you'd put them after they've finished up on the Tyne Tees Xpress - I don't think there's any appropriate services at present really?
I really am sceptical about the investment into coaches, and I really don't think the numbers stack up. As I said the other day, tough call for Go North East to make.