(19 Nov 2023, 11:47 am)RobinHood wrote In the face of all local authorities in this area doing absolutely sod all in respect of bus priority schemes, unfortunately the operator is left to pick up and pieces and try to make it work, yet again...

Every one of the authorities and political leaders in this region, already do and will continue to beat bus operators with a stick for not running on time, but not one has done anything meaningful in respect of bus priority.

Congestion unfortunately continues to increase and blight our major towns and cities, with buses end up sat in the same traffic as everyone else.

To boil this down, this proposal is essentially Arriva trying to get these services to work reliably again, which unfortunately means extra time = slower journeys.

Local highways authorities need to play their part, but they never will, as politically it would be suicidal to go against the private motorist.

Expect more of this type of thing to be honest, from all operators.

Yeah honestly can't disagree with it. The sad thing is most the problems are outside of Northumberland who are generally better than others. It's the two council areas to the South, North Tyneside and Newcastle CC who seem to be doing the complete opposite. 

The few through Gosforth being prime examples but the absolute mess of Gosforth Park is just embarrassing now. Every 'upgrade' just makes it worse every time. The sad thing is there's literally a side road which could've been a bus lane to solve everything. Really frustrating and so short minded. 

I really don't have a clue what Arriva can do with the X7/X8/X9 as it's just a complete mess again and is nearly as bad as the 363/364 days. Feel for anyone who has to drive those routes as South Gosforth is no better.

It's all good, they haven't just approved an Aldi on the same roundabout. Oh wait...

So I did some calculations of Arriva's proposed changes with some assumed running times. I got.....
- X21/35 - PVR 14x
- X22 - PVR 7x

Then...based on the following changes and some added time, I got a PVR of 17x. This would still leave 4x to play with for a new 42 and corresponding changes to the 43/44/45. Might actually end up not needing any of the 4x free but haven't worked anything out for the 42/43/44/45.

- X21 (every 30 mins) Same as proposal from Arriva interworking with 35. Now via Hartford Road rather than Nedderton.
* Changes to and from 35 at Cresswell Arms

- X22 (every 30 mins) Route unchanged.

- 35 (every 15 minutes) Same proposal from Arriva interworking with X21 (every 30 mins). Continues to Seacrest Rd and Woodhorn half-hourly as X21 with 15 minute frequency Morpeth > Newbiggin Cresswell Arms. Frequency increase would be a welcome improvement too!
* Changes to and from X21 at Cresswell Arms

Pattern
X22 ASH > NCL
X21 NCL > NBG CA
35 NBG CA > MOR
35 MOR > NBG CA
35 NBG CA > MOR
35 MOR > NBG CA
X21 NBG CA > NCL
X22 NCL > ASH

(19 Nov 2023, 8:47 pm)L469 YVK wrote So I did some calculations of Arriva's proposed changes with some assumed running times. I got.....
- X21/35 - PVR 14x
- X22 - PVR 7x

Then...based on the following changes and some added time, I got a PVR of 17x. This would still leave 4x to play with for a new 42 and corresponding changes to the 43/44/45. Might actually end up not needing any of the 4x free but haven't worked anything out for the 42/43/44/45.

- X21 (every 30 mins) Same as proposal from Arriva interworking with 35. Now via Hartford Road rather than Nedderton.
* Changes to and from 35 at Cresswell Arms

- X22 (every 30 mins) Route unchanged.

- 35 (every 15 minutes) Same proposal from Arriva interworking with X21 (every 30 mins). Continues to Seacrest Rd and Woodhorn half-hourly as X21 with 15 minute frequency Morpeth > Newbiggin Cresswell Arms. Frequency increase would be a welcome improvement too!
* Changes to and from X21 at Cresswell Arms

Pattern
X22 ASH > NCL
X21 NCL > NBG CA
35 NBG CA > MOR
35 MOR > NBG CA
35 NBG CA > MOR
35 MOR > NBG CA
X21 NBG CA > NCL
X22 NCL > ASH

Not sure why you'd want to reduce the X21/X22, it's literally like 2 stops where they serve the same place. Nothing is happening in the Bedlington area to warrant a frequency reduction in that area and the 42 really is slowing the service down it would be substantially longer. You're literally punishing an area of Bedlington to make a quicker service for someone who lives near the train line.

The 43 is also badly needed in the future when the new housing developments to the South West of Cramlington are complete as it's the logical service to run through it. After the train line comes in, I could understand, but not yet.

(19 Nov 2023, 10:11 pm)Storx wrote Not sure why you'd want to reduce the X21/X22, it's literally like 2 stops where they serve the same place. Nothing is happening in the Bedlington area to warrant a frequency reduction in that area and the 42 really is slowing the service down it would be substantially longer. You're literally punishing an area of Bedlington to make a quicker service for someone who lives near the train line.

The 43 is also badly needed in the future when the new housing developments to the South West of Cramlington are complete as it's the logical service to run through it. After the train line comes in, I could understand, but not yet.

But technically, users are only getting a 20 minute service owing to the 14/6 gaps in Stakeford & Bedlington. It's going to be unsustainable keep adding time onto the X21. A cleaner 15 minute service from Stakeford (either from Ashington Dr or Half Moon) & Bedlington Front Street will keep the loads balanced.

As for the new developments around Fisher Lane & Beacon Hill, the 42 could alternatively serve these.

Or the other alternative option.....X22 misses Front Street only serving Glebe Road but operates via Nedderton instead of the X21.

(19 Nov 2023, 10:23 pm)L469 YVK wrote But technically, users are only getting a 20 minute service owing to the 14/6 gaps in Stakeford & Bedlington. It's going to be unsustainable keep adding time onto the X21. A cleaner 15 minute service from Stakeford (either from Ashington Dr or Half Moon) & Bedlington Front Street will keep the loads balanced.

As for the new developments around Fisher Lane & Beacon Hill, the 42 could alternatively serve these.

Or the other alternative option.....X22 misses Front Street only serving Glebe Road but operates via Nedderton instead of the X21.

But for 95% of the route people are going down from a 20 minute service to a 30 minute service and one is frequent and one is borderline infrequent pretty much.

There's like 5 bus stops on the whole route, which aren't in the middle of no-where, where they're actually service the same places. There's no combined bus stops at Stakeford etc. I always think the '10 minute' bus service is confusing. It's just 2, 20 minute bus services, in reality.

I'm not sure if this is the best idea ever but if you really wanted to reduce the PVR then you could potentially do something like this with all 4 corridors being every 30 minutes and the short X20 terminating at Wansbeck Hospital.

Least people are losing out and if you interwork the X21/X22 to work with the 1/2 would keep the local journeys every 15 minutes. Least now more of Ashington is served by the actual express X20. Newbiggin is just going back to the old X31/X32 like it was for years.


(Black: X20, Red: X21, Yellow: X22, Pink: X23)

But I wouldn't be thinking of doing anything like it until the train line comes in.

Why do most people think new Northern line is gonna kill the X20/X21/X22

You have LNER going to Morpeth/Alnmouth & Berwick but you don't see the X14/X15/X16/X18 losing passages do you.

This new Northern Line will not take passengers of the X20/X21/X22 cause the line doesn't even stay with them. The line if I'm right doesn't see them routes till Ashington and even then the X20 is the only service that does Newcastle to Regent Centre then non stop to just outside Ashington. The Northern line is to connect villages that have 1 or 2 bus services and to run a services. Not to take passenger of a bus route

(20 Nov 2023, 12:00 am)Aaron21 wrote Why do most people think new Northern line is gonna kill the X20/X21/X22

You have LNER going to Morpeth/Alnmouth & Berwick but you don't see the X14/X15/X16/X18 losing passages do you.

This new Northern Line will not take passengers of the X20/X21/X22 cause the line doesn't even stay with them. The line if I'm right doesn't see them routes till Ashington and even then the X20 is the only service that does Newcastle to Regent Centre then non stop to just outside Ashington. The Northern line is to connect villages that have 1 or 2 bus services and to run a services. Not to take passenger of a bus route

The rail line will 100% take passengers from the buses.



See above, using stats from other parts of the country then the median distance someone walks to a station is 800m which means there's 50% of who do less and 50% who do more which is the inner circle of the two stations. The 85% percentile, which means there's 15% who do even further is 1.6km which is the outer circle.

I'm not saying that everyone is going to do it, as there's other factors, fares etc but if there's going to be people using them and if it's a success then the X21, in particular, could be in big trouble as the majority of the route is within the circles. For local journeys, there's also the 1 and 2 which exist which complicate things further. Why have a bus to Newcastle when no-one is going there and are only going to Bedlington, for example.

The X14, X15, X16 and X18 are 4 buses per an hour and serve multiple places beyond Morpeth. Not 7 buses like Ashington which mostly terminate there.

A better comparison would be Hexham which isn't too dissimilar to Ashington. That has 2 buses via the 10 and 1 bus via the 685 operating commercially between the two.

There's also a reason why there's no fast buses from Waldridge Park in Chester Le Street and Stobhill in Morpeth towards Newcastle, as the people are all on the train, so there's no demand.

https://chorley.gov.uk/media/2495/8-3-Ho...9686030000 - Stats from here.

To combat trains, buses, cars, and congestion between Newbiggin and Newcastle, I'd personally build two zeppelin terminals: one in Newbiggin, and one next to the Arena in Newcastle, and operate a congestion-busting, non-stop zeppelin service between Newcastle and Newbiggin.

Problem solved.

(20 Nov 2023, 10:42 am)Storx wrote The rail line will 100% take passengers from the buses.



See above, using stats from other parts of the country then the median distance someone walks to a station is 800m which means there's 50% of who do less and 50% who do more which is the inner circle of the two stations. The 85% percentile, which means there's 15% who do even further is 1.6km which is the outer circle.

I'm not saying that everyone is going to do it, as there's other factors, fares etc but if there's going to be people using them and if it's a success then the X21, in particular, could be in big trouble as the majority of the route is within the circles. For local journeys, there's also the 1 and 2 which exist which complicate things further. Why have a bus to Newcastle when no-one is going there and are only going to Bedlington, for example.

The X14, X15, X16 and X18 are 4 buses per an hour and serve multiple places beyond Morpeth. Not 7 buses like Ashington which mostly terminate there.

A better comparison would be Hexham which isn't too dissimilar to Ashington. That has 2 buses via the 10 and 1 bus via the 685 operating commercially between the two.

There's also a reason why there's no fast buses from Waldridge Park in Chester Le Street and Stobhill in Morpeth towards Newcastle, as the people are all on the train, so there's no demand.

https://chorley.gov.uk/media/2495/8-3-Ho...9686030000 - Stats from here.

Any reason the Morpeth station only has the inner circle on this graphic? 

If looking only at the inner circle of both the Ashington and Bedlington Station stations, then the impact doesn't look anywhere near the same. 

Not sure either of the other examples stack up really, either. Yes the Morpeth express services serve other places afterwards, but the Ashington ones serve other places in the middle (Cramlington Industrial Estates, Nedderton, Bedlington, Choppington, Guide Post, Stakeford, Wansbeck Hospital, and also Newbiggin). Having witnessed the Morpeth express services daily for over a year, it's clear that they do very well on that section in particular where they are competing with the train. Buses will drop off and pick up a considerable amount through Morpeth throughout the peaks. 

Same with CLS, if you slap your circles onto that station, I'd bet it would overlap with the 21/X21 route - yet they both do very well in CLS.

---

(20 Nov 2023, 11:14 am)MurdnunoC wrote To combat trains, buses, cars, and congestion between Newbiggin and Newcastle, I'd personally build two zeppelin terminals: one in Newbiggin, and one next to the Arena in Newcastle, and operate a congestion-busting, non-stop zeppelin service between Newcastle and Newbiggin.

Problem solved.

It doesn't go through the bustling metropolis of Bedlington Station so that's doomed from the outset.

(20 Nov 2023, 11:17 am)mb134 wrote It doesn't go through the bustling metropolis of Bedlington Station so that's doomed from the outset.

I'm surprised Bedlington Station doesn't have its own airport, to be honest, given the population density and socioeconomic demography of the area. It's an absolute travesty that denizens of Bedlington Station have to use the small, provincial offering of Newcastle Airport if they need to travel to international destinations.  

However, I don't think a zeppelin service between Newcastle and Newbiggin is doomed. Combined with the congestion-busting reasons I've offered, data complied from Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade show that zeppelins are well-used with first-class travelling options available onboard. If you lived in Newbiggin, why would you choose the car over a zeppelin?

(20 Nov 2023, 11:17 am)mb134 wrote Any reason the Morpeth station only has the inner circle on this graphic? 

If looking only at the inner circle of both the Ashington and Bedlington Station stations, then the impact doesn't look anywhere near the same. 

Not sure either of the other examples stack up really, either. Yes the Morpeth express services serve other places afterwards, but the Ashington ones serve other places in the middle (Cramlington Industrial Estates, Nedderton, Bedlington, Choppington, Guide Post, Stakeford, Wansbeck Hospital, and also Newbiggin). Having witnessed the Morpeth express services daily for over a year, it's clear that they do very well on that section in particular where they are competing with the train. Buses will drop off and pick up a considerable amount through Morpeth throughout the peaks. 

Same with CLS, if you slap your circles onto that station, I'd bet it would overlap with the 21/X21 route - yet they both do very well in CL

Me being lazy with Morpeth.

See I think it's really hard to compare Morpeth and Ashington as Morpeth station is no-where near the centre so isn't really an option to travel there unless you like a long run and is a place people want to go compared to Ashington which is on the high street but not a place many people want to go. Not to mention the Morpeth services are literally non-stop and the train service is less frequent and CLS is currently every 2 hours, and also completely non-stop.

The X22 will still be fine imo as most the route isn't impacted, it's the X21 I have more doubts about, at 3 BPH, in particular. If there's a 15% movement across, it's pretty likely most of it is going to be the X21 passengers. 

There's not really any stations in the North East to really compare against, it could go either way really where everyone moves to the train or where no-one at all moves the train. Just have to wait and see but I'm on the side of that a lot of people will move across personally as long as the ticketing is part of the TNE tickets or competitive.

There is a half hourly train between Darlington, Stockton, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Saltburn, yet the X66/X67 and X2/X3/X4 are equally very busy still.

There is no reason why the bus cannot compliment.

(20 Nov 2023, 12:33 pm)Storx wrote Me being lazy with Morpeth.

See I think it's really hard to compare Morpeth and Ashington as Morpeth station is no-where near the centre so isn't really an option to travel there unless you like a long run and is a place people want to go compared to Ashington which is on the high street but not a place many people want to go. Not to mention the Morpeth services are literally non-stop and the train service is less frequent and CLS is currently every 2 hours, and also completely non-stop.

The X22 will still be fine imo as most the route isn't impacted, it's the X21 I have more doubts about, at 3 BPH, in particular. If there's a 15% movement across, it's pretty likely most of it is going to be the X21 passengers. 

There's not really any stations in the North East to really compare against, it could go either way really where everyone moves to the train or where no-one at all moves the train. Just have to wait and see but I'm on the side of that a lot of people will move across personally as long as the ticketing is part of the TNE tickets or competitive.

I’m hoping the the new railway will attract more passengers to public transport, including a lot of car users who hopefully will use the new station car parks. Will passengers give up the bus for a longer walk to the station, I’m not sure? Where do they want to be in Newcastle as most people from the north of Newcastle are used to getting dropped in the Haymarket/Barras Bridge area not the Central Stn? Yes they can change to Metro at Northumberland Park with a walk and up and down stairs plus a wait of up to 12 minutes if they just miss a connection - even worse going north connecting into a half hourly service. I really hope it all works, we’ll just have to wait and see, bearing in mind the amount the railway is costing.

(20 Nov 2023, 1:16 pm)RobinHood wrote There is a half hourly train between Darlington, Stockton, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Saltburn, yet the X66/X67 and X2/X3/X4 are equally very busy still.

There is no reason why the bus cannot compliment.

Aye can't disagree with that, just hope they try and make it work if numbers do drop rather than doing the old. Everyone uses the train now, we're not bothering approach. I know it was a big problem with First in the borders who pulled out completely after the Borders Railway opened, which is doing really well.

(20 Nov 2023, 1:30 pm)RMF1254 wrote I’m hoping the the new railway will attract more passengers to public transport, including a lot of car users who hopefully will use the new station car parks. Will passengers give up the bus for a longer walk to the station, I’m not sure? Where do they want to be in Newcastle as most people from the north of Newcastle are used to getting dropped in the Haymarket/Barras Bridge area not the Central Stn? Yes they can change to Metro at Northumberland Park with a walk and up and down stairs plus a wait of up to 12 minutes if they just miss a connection - even worse going north connecting into a half hourly service. I really hope it all works, we’ll just have to wait and see, bearing in mind the amount the railway is costing.

Personally (I live on it), I'd take the walk personally. It's more about timekeeping for me. If a trains says it takes 20 minutes, then I know it'll take 20 minutes, the vast majority of the time. Now if the bus says 35 minutes, it might take that but it might take an hour, or it might 40 minutes or whatever and you can't trust it, if you actually need to be somewhere.

It used to be a massive problem when I went to uni in town about 15 year ago as the bus was timetabled in for 8:40, but it never got in then, so you'd have to get the bus in at 8.15 I think it was which left at 7.20 in the morning then pissing about for an hour and cba. If there was a train which got in a 8.40 I'd take it with a heart beat, which left at 8.20 add the 15 minute walk I'm still 45 minutes better off and I get the free bonus of some exercise and not sitting on a bus at all.

Have a feeling that'll be quite common for a lot of people, who will choose to drive though instead. I ended up getting a lift to the Metro, at the time, as I was sick of the bus as an understatement. Looking at the bus times, it's all much the same nowadays - https://bustimes.org/services/x7-newcast.../505200141 that being the later journey and completely useless.

So if the X21 / X22 are strong enough to not need the combined frequency in Stakeford (different stops) and Bedlington........would the following not be better.......

- X21 - Same frequency but via Hartford Road - time saved added elsewhere on route.

- X22 - Same frequency, only serves Glebe Road then via Nedderton - times would level out as it wouldn't need to serve Bedlington Front Street. The 57 manages fine serving only Glebe Road.

(20 Nov 2023, 1:50 pm)Storx wrote Personally (I live on it), I'd take the walk personally. It's more about timekeeping for me. If a trains says it takes 20 minutes, then I know it'll take 20 minutes, the vast majority of the time. Now if the bus says 35 minutes, it might take that but it might take an hour, or it might 40 minutes or whatever and you can't trust it, if you actually need to be somewhere.

Can't you say that about the train especially with the amount of disruptions which is happening

(20 Nov 2023, 2:24 pm)Unber43 wrote Can't you say that about the train especially with the amount of disruptions which is happening

The Northumberland Line will likely be quite reliable as its self-contained, only hold up will be if the Ashington services are interworked with something else...

(20 Nov 2023, 3:44 pm)omnicity4659 wrote The Northumberland Line will likely be quite reliable as its self-contained, only hold up will be if the Ashington services are interworked with something else...

Signalling issues? Fatality on the line? Barrier problems? 

Self-contained or not, there's inevitably going to be issues.

(20 Nov 2023, 3:44 pm)omnicity4659 wrote The Northumberland Line will likely be quite reliable as its self-contained, only hold up will be if the Ashington services are interworked with something else...

Who's to say that maybe LNER or Lumo might not start services starting at Ashington to London? 

Or Northern changes there mind and goes Middlesbrough - Hartlepool - Newcastle - Ashington (ofc all stops inbetween)

Or Cross Country, or TPE?

(20 Nov 2023, 4:20 pm)Unber43 wrote Who's to say that maybe LNER or Lumo might not start services starting at Ashington to London? 

Or Northern changes there mind and goes Middlesbrough - Hartlepool - Newcastle - Ashington (ofc all stops inbetween)

Or Cross Country, or TPE?

You really think that they will decide to run a train from Ashington to Newcastle along that line. Considering Newsham to just after Palmersvill is all single track. It's stupid and won't work

(20 Nov 2023, 4:28 pm)Aaron21 wrote You really think that they will decide to run a train from Ashington to Newcastle along that line. Considering Newsham to just after Palmersvill is all single track. It's stupid and won't work

Lack of future planning I see.

But they might early morning services, late evenings.

(20 Nov 2023, 3:44 pm)omnicity4659 wrote The Northumberland Line will likely be quite reliable as its self-contained, only hold up will be if the Ashington services are interworked with something else...

Won't there still be freight traffic using the line?

(20 Nov 2023, 4:28 pm)Aaron21 wrote You really think that they will decide to run a train from Ashington to Newcastle along that line. Considering Newsham to just after Palmersvill is all single track. It's stupid and won't work

There's two new passing loops on that section, one of them is immediately South of Seghill crossing, the other is inbetween New Hartley and Newsham.

Mind that said, there won't be any intercity trains coming along as it wouldn't make sense, easy enough to change in central.

I wonder if these consultations will become a regular thing. Credit to Arriva for doing it, at least regular users can have their say. In the past, Arriva would've just told passengers when and what was changing, and that would be then end of the matter.

(22 Nov 2023, 2:53 pm)tvd wrote I wonder if these consultations will become a regular thing.  Credit to Arriva for doing it, at least regular users can have their say.  In the past, Arriva would've just told passengers when and what was changing, and that would be then end of the matter.

Not a fan of them personally, as they're worded in a way that people will always approve them. 

Stuff like would you rather have a bus to Northumbria Hospital or Seghill from Ashington totally ignoring the part that it was cutting the frequency through Seghill which is a busier part of the route and no-one goes to the hospital but it's obvious how people would answer. 

The Teesside Park one is very similar, as it's cutting part of the route to every 20 minutes from 15 minutes and leaving one street unserved completely but someone from Ingleby Barwick won't care about that as everything else is the same for them and it's all worded for them to approve. 

It's not a consultation.

The Nexus 35 is much the same, hidden is the fact that route is made substantially longer with a detour through Jesmond BUT they're getting an evening and Sunday service mentioned numerous times.

Just thinking about this, wonder if this isn't all traffic related and is partially to do with the double decker issue with Arriva aswell.

If I'm right very quickly working it out there's now going to be boards which pretty much miss both peaks and the school runs so the 35 no longer needs the decker allocation it has now, releasing deckers to elsewhere.

Boards like this: https://bustimes.org/vehicles/anum-7575?date=2023-11-22

For example.

(23 Nov 2023, 9:41 am)Storx wrote Boards like this: https://bustimes.org/vehicles/anum-7575?date=2023-11-22

For example.

That board you've pointed out:

0725 X21 from town gets clattered with workers for Cramlington Industrial Estate, I see it most mornings with a very healthy load (maybe not a decker worth, but busy enough). 

1525 X22 and the 1745 X21 from town, both of which are PM peak runs from Newcastle. 

It's also the first X21 through most of Ashington after 9am for concessionary passes.

Also, on any week might matchday that board is the first one from town after the match. I'd love to see a Pulsar cope with that.

(23 Nov 2023, 10:23 am)mb134 wrote Also, on any week might matchday that board is the first one from town after the match. I'd love to see a Pulsar cope with that.

Easy to get around that one, just relies on the depot being aware a match is on and swapping a decker on before it does the late run to Newcastle.

(23 Nov 2023, 5:18 pm)Shrek wrote Easy to get around that one, just relies on the depot being aware a match is on and swapping a decker on before it does the late run to Newcastle.

Easier said than done that - who changes it over.  Bus that was due to go to the depot earlier in the evening could be parked at Ashington, but then who takes the single decker to depot as the driver off the decker could have been finished earlier, and the Leading Driver could be out covering mileage.  You could argue an engineer should, but what happens if they are unavailable (maybe attending a breakdown) - changing buses over when they are not suppose to is a receipe for things to go wrong.

(23 Nov 2023, 10:23 am)mb134 wrote That board you've pointed out:

0725 X21 from town gets clattered with workers for Cramlington Industrial Estate, I see it most mornings with a very healthy load (maybe not a decker worth, but busy enough). 

1525 X22 and the 1745 X21 from town, both of which are PM peak runs from Newcastle. 

It's also the first X21 through most of Ashington after 9am for concessionary passes.

Also, on any week might matchday that board is the first one from town after the match. I'd love to see a Pulsar cope with that.

Remember though most of those boards will change as the 35 swapover will push everything back by 2 hours so it'll be the first 35 for Pegswood only now and it should be heading between Morpeth and Newbiggin now at the PM peak and after match days.

It's kind of what I meant, some of the early X22 boards heading towards Newcastle if I'm right should be similar aswell.