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Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions

Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions

Site Administrator
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(12 Aug 2014, 2:25 pm)Michael wrote Hopefully they hear about it soon.

Be interesting to see what they have ordered for each service... i would think at least each service will have 1 or 2 spares ordered...

With the increase on the X66 to, i would say at least 6 buses will be ordered for the X66?

I'm on Work Experience at Riverside as you'll know already, so I've been making frequent trips on the X66 lately, with my trips in the middle of the day (while I go out for lunch) being at slightly different times every day.

When I've been travelling to and from Riverside to either the Metrocentre or Gateshead (conveniently on 9120 a lot of the time last week! Wink), I've noticed that, in regards to the loadings, it has actually coped for most of the day. Come 3 o'clock, and that's when it starts to struggle, with loadings being particularly high at that point.

I also noticed a man in a suit who seemed to be recording passenger numbers a couple of days ago, so perhaps this was related.

It's a hard call to make. I'd suggest that five buses will definitely be ordered, on the basis that Saturdays have a PVR of 5 vehicles. Saturdays (when there are no roadworks in Dunston) usually have a walk-on service anyway, and as it's a 6 minute frequency then, I'd suggest most wouldn't care about waiting for the next bus if the one they were waiting for had to depart because it was full. That said, having multiple buses where people are crammed in isn't ideal. Putting in additional peak runs would dissolve the brand, and it's unlikely that GNE could put these on with brand new vehicles anyway (there's not a chance in the world they'd have brand new vehicles sat in the depot for the majority of the day doing nothing).
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(12 Aug 2014, 3:02 pm)Dan wrote I'm on Work Experience at Riverside as you'll know already, so I've been making frequent trips on the X66 lately, with my trips in the middle of the day (while I go out for lunch) being at slightly different times every day.

When I've been travelling to and from Riverside to either the Metrocentre or Gateshead (conveniently on 9120 a lot of the time last week! Wink), I've noticed that, in regards to the loadings, it has actually coped for most of the day. Come 3 o'clock, and that's when it starts to struggle, with loadings being particularly high at that point.

I also noticed a man in a suit who seemed to be recording passenger numbers a couple of days ago, so perhaps this was related.

It's a hard call to make. I'd suggest that five buses will definitely be ordered, on the basis that Saturdays have a PVR of 5 vehicles. Saturdays (when there are no roadworks in Dunston) usually have a walk-on service anyway, and as it's a 6 minute frequency then, I'd suggest most wouldn't care about waiting for the next bus if the one they were waiting for had to depart because it was full. That said, having multiple buses where people are crammed in isn't ideal. Putting in additional peak runs would dissolve the brand, and it's unlikely that GNE could put these on with brand new vehicles anyway (there's not a chance in the world they'd have brand new vehicles sat in the depot for the majority of the day doing nothing).

Only problem with the X66, its always busy
Ooo Friend, Bus Friend.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
Anything with power is good BUT, what about the 31st December this year? They can only build 200 of not only them, but also other Euro 5 vehicle types with their body until the end of this year. Come on, somebody needs to do something long term otherwise Alpha will end up floating on the stock exchange!
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
And when I go on about E400's, I actually like the bodywork particularly the MMC but I don't like the chassis or the Cummins engine. If Volvo actually supplied a B8TL chassis to ADL, I would like to see some in the road. I know Stagecoach orders the Scania chassis with the 9 litre engine option for their longer routes where the Cummins unit may struggle so hopefully, that might influence Volvo and ADL to come up with a heavyweight chassis option for the MMC.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(12 Aug 2014, 6:51 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote And when I go on about E400's, I actually like the bodywork particularly the MMC but I don't like the chassis or the Cummins engine. If Volvo actually supplied a B8TL chassis to ADL, I would like to see some in the road. I know Stagecoach orders the Scania chassis with the 9 litre engine option for their longer routes where the Cummins unit may struggle so hopefully, that might influence Volvo and ADL to come up with a heavyweight chassis option for the MMC.
Or get some E400's, with the Cummins engine, Arriva's seem to be doing fine on the X15/18...
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(12 Aug 2014, 6:51 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote And when I go on about E400's, I actually like the bodywork particularly the MMC but I don't like the chassis or the Cummins engine. If Volvo actually supplied a B8TL chassis to ADL, I would like to see some in the road. I know Stagecoach orders the Scania chassis with the 9 litre engine option for their longer routes where the Cummins unit may struggle so hopefully, that might influence Volvo and ADL to come up with a heavyweight chassis option for the MMC.

Will you please just ask Volvo or ADL to do this? Heard it like a thousand times! No offence...
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(12 Aug 2014, 6:57 pm)BJ10VUS wrote Will you please just ask Volvo or ADL to do this? Heard it like a thousand times! No offence...

As if they'll listen! I won't mention it anymore.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(12 Aug 2014, 7:14 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote As if they'll listen! I won't mention it anymore.

Didn't mean to have a go, because I do agree with you about powerful buses being needed on the X15, X18, X93 and Tyne Tees Express. I just think that it gets a little bit repetitive. The demand for what you want is there, although it's not as significant as the demand for other vehicle types, such as the E400 and Gemini 3.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(12 Aug 2014, 7:28 pm)BJ10VUS wrote Didn't mean to have a go, because I do agree with you about powerful buses being needed on the X15, X18, X93 and Tyne Tees Express. I just think that it gets a little bit repetitive. The demand for what you want is there, although it's not as significant as the demand for other vehicle types, such as the E400 and Gemini 3.

I know you weren't having a go and I do bang on about it quite a bit, but it's an important thing to take into consideration. Would passengers like to be stranded in the rural Tyne Valley on a cold December morning or stuck on the windy, wet and dangerous A19 waiting for a replacenent bus. If manufacturers don't take things like that into consideration, then it's going to cause headaches for operators and inconvenience for passengers.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(12 Aug 2014, 12:09 pm)Chris wrote I'm sure I read on a recent review (although I can't remember which one it was) that engineers can flick a switch and the fan blows the other way - i.e blows all the rubbish back through. Saves engineering having to manually clean them and is a lot quicker.

Sucking and blowing?!
The mind boggles! Wink
'Illegitimis non carborundum'
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(13 Aug 2014, 5:47 am)Andreos Constantopolous wrote Sucking and blowing?!
The mind boggles! Wink

They'd be ideal on the 69....
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
Still no word on GNE's orders? Seems to be taking a while wondering if there debating which routes get the vehicles? We know Arriva/Stagecoach a while now and we knew GNE's this time last year.
Site Administrator
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(03 Sep 2014, 5:43 am)Drifter60 wrote Still no word on GNE's orders? Seems to be taking a while wondering if there debating which routes get the vehicles? We know Arriva/Stagecoach a while now and we knew GNE's this time last year.

Arriva and Stagecoach will different financial years to Go-Ahead and I believe they both order on a group-basis rather than company-basis to allow 'bulk discount' deals - this means that they tend to order at a different time of the year to Go North East.

Deliberation continues on Go North East's orders, but there is no rush. The likelihood is that orders were confirmed so early on last year due to the fact there were so many new buses going to enter service. It's already been suggested that this year's number won't be quite as significant.

Vehicle loans are still in place to determine suitability of that vehicle type on a specific route, with the current examples being Streetlite 5375 on loan to Stanley for the "Lime" services and Merc 9120 on loan to Riverside (again) for the X66. Once Go North East gathers a sufficient amount of data, they will be able to make a judgement and take it to Go-Ahead.

I must also note that the information about last year's orders wasn't intended to hit the public domain, until press releases from the manufacturers, such as Optare, were online. We were quite lucky in the sense that said information did in fact hit the public domain. I suspect we won't be quite as lucky to get a confirmed order list this year, and it'll be mainly built up on suggestions from those with inside knowledge.

I believe it takes approximately two to three months to process orders once confirmed, so buses still could potentially arrive before Christmas.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(03 Sep 2014, 6:25 am)Dan wrote Arriva and Stagecoach will different financial years to Go-Ahead and I believe they both order on a group-basis rather than company-basis to allow 'bulk discount' deals - this means that they tend to order at a different time of the year to Go North East.

Deliberation continues on Go North East's orders, but there is no rush. The likelihood is that orders were confirmed so early on last year due to the fact there were so many new buses going to enter service. It's already been suggested that this year's number won't be quite as significant.

Vehicle loans are still in place to determine suitability of that vehicle type on a specific route, with the current examples being Streetlite 5375 on loan to Stanley for the "Lime" services and Merc 9120 on loan to Riverside (again) for the X66. Once Go North East gathers a sufficient amount of data, they will be able to make a judgement and take it to Go-Ahead.

I must also note that the information about last year's orders wasn't intended to hit the public domain, until press releases from the manufacturers, such as Optare, were online. We were quite lucky in the sense that said information did in fact hit the public domain. I suspect we won't be quite as lucky to get a confirmed order list this year, and it'll be mainly built up on suggestions from those with inside knowledge.

I believe it takes approximately two to three months to process orders once confirmed, so buses still could potentially arrive before Christmas.

But no doubt they have ordered for their London based services with no care on price etc
Ooo Friend, Bus Friend.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(03 Sep 2014, 8:18 am)Michael wrote But no doubt they have ordered for their London based services with no care on price etc

On the flip side of that you have Discounts for Bulk Orders as Dan Mentioned, and then I am sure TFL contribute towards the Orders also, meaning Go-Ahead would probably pay around a 1/3 of the Cost I would think, so in Reality your Post would therefore be Correct as know no doubt Profits on said Services in London will be through the roof.

As for GNE's Orders this year, these are my Rejigged Predictions.

Enviro 400MMC - X21
Euro 6 Mercedes Citaro - 8/78
Optare Versa 11.7m - 57/X40/X66/Toonlinks (Further Standardizing Riverside Depots Fleet as Dan likes to put it Wink
Optare Versa - M2/M3
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(03 Sep 2014, 2:11 pm)NEBCD Malarkey wrote On the flip side of that you have Discounts for Bulk Orders as Dan Mentioned, and then I am sure TFL contribute towards the Orders also, meaning Go-Ahead would probably pay around a 1/3 of the Cost I would think, so in Reality your Post would therefore be Correct as know no doubt Profits on said Services in London will be through the roof.

As for GNE's Orders this year, these are my Rejigged Predictions.

Enviro 400MMC - X21
Euro 6 Mercedes Citaro - 8/78
Optare Versa 11.7m - 57/X40/X66/Toonlinks (Further Standardizing Riverside Depots Fleet as Dan likes to put it Wink
Optare Versa - M2/M3

For Double Decks, this is what would be good to happen:
- 16 MMC'S to Washington displacing 14 B9TL's and 1 B7TL.
- 6049 to Riverside for TTX
- 6050 and 6051 to Percy Main for CC and Spare Role (6051) with 6117 to Riverside for the TEN.
- 6052 / 6053 to CLS for Angel.
- 6054 to Riverside or Hexham as an extra bus.
- 6001 - 6007 and 6055 to Crook for Pronto.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(03 Sep 2014, 6:37 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote For Double Decks, this is what would be good to happen:
- 16 MMC'S to Washington displacing 14 B9TL's and 1 B7TL.
- 6049 to Riverside for TTX
- 6050 and 6051 to Percy Main for CC and Spare Role (6051) with 6117 to Riverside for the TEN.
- 6052 / 6053 to CLS for Angel.
- 6054 to Riverside or Hexham as an extra bus.
- 6001 - 6007 and 6055 to Crook for Pronto.

Why replace a fleet of buses that are only a few years old and are quite capable of providing more service over the coming years when you could replace buses that are unreliable with brand new buses? Think id say we have to put up with Percy Main if they allocate a single decker or double decker (providing 6117 is on aswell) to the Cobalt Clipper routes if they only have 1 spare and it does, personally seem unlikely that they will purchase another bus to keep the spare number at 2. However, the angel needs sorting out. Presumably its the Hybrids causing the main problems rather than the 2 buses which are most likely to be unreliable, 3962 and 3965.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(03 Sep 2014, 6:55 pm)Robert wrote Why replace a fleet of buses that are only a few years old and are quite capable of providing more service over the coming years when you could replace buses that are unreliable with brand new buses? Think id say we have to put up with Percy Main if they allocate a single decker or double decker (providing 6117 is on aswell) to the Cobalt Clipper routes if they only have 1 spare and it does, personally seem unlikely that they will purchase another bus to keep the spare number at 2. However, the angel needs sorting out. Presumably its the Hybrids causing the main problems rather than the 2 buses which are most likely to be unreliable, 3962 and 3965.

8 buses would upgrade the Pronto with suitable vehicles, reliability at Riverside / Hexham and CLS would improve and PM would have 2 spares again.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(03 Sep 2014, 6:59 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote 8 buses would upgrade the Pronto with suitable vehicles, reliability at Riverside / Hexham and CLS would improve and PM would have 2 spares again.

I would prefer to have the likes of 6001-7 at Crook, rather than brand new. My reasons are as follows;

1. A B9 will be much more suitable for the service - yes I know that one day, our hands will be forced to use something like a B5 but that batch are still reasonably new.

2. They have a few miles under their belt, and any teething problems should be long gone. I am not keen on the idea of plonking brand new buses at an outstation.

3. They will have depreciated somewhat, and that wont impact on the depot costs.

4. 6001-7 are now almost four years old, and due a repaint, therefore would make ideal candidates for Pronto.

6038 could be replaced by one of the old X10 Gemini's, something like 3941, no need to have anything newer as a spare at Crook. We got that originally to run the Spenny-Framwellgate dupe but the College run now forms the 9th bus board and needs to be a Pronto as it does the 1639 X21 off Bishop.

I'm keen to hear any thoughts on this.....the last time I worked at a depot that got brand new buses closed 6 months later and ever since I see the arrival of new buses as a bit of an omen!

Stu
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
I know the only concern about MMC's for the X1 would be Old Durham Road but otherwise, fine. ANE's E400's 7522 - 7528 seem to be OK on the X21 / X22 which are pretty similar routes to the X1 in terms of distance and conditions. The setup what I could hear from the ISBe unit in idle on the MMC launch video seems pretty similar to the DB300 setup which is quite decent.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
With the M2/M2A/M3/M3A/W5/W6 changing numbers at start of November maybe they will get new buses, just like when the M1 changed to the 4...


It looks like

M2/M2A/M3/M3A will become 82/82A/83/83A

W5/W6 will become 85/86
Ooo Friend, Bus Friend.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(05 Sep 2014, 8:00 pm)Michael wrote With the M2/M2A/M3/M3A/W5/W6 changing numbers at start of November maybe they will get new buses, just like when the M1 changed to the 4...


It looks like

M2/M2A/M3/M3A will become 82/82A/83/83A

W5/W6 will become 85/86

Exactly what I was thinking.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(05 Sep 2014, 8:02 pm)Tom wrote Exactly what I was thinking.

Maybe now...


ToonLink - 15 (2 spares)
X66 - 5
Lime - 15 (2 spares)
-------
M2 - 4
M3 - 4
W5 - 2
W6 - 2
(Not sure because they interwork, it may change the total any help?)
--------------

Around 47 or 48 buses (Lime may alter by 1, due to changes)

Then 1 spare for the M2/M3/W5/W6
1 spare anywhere!
Ooo Friend, Bus Friend.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(05 Sep 2014, 8:06 pm)Dan wrote Doubt any new buses will be here by November...

I know but i'm just saying it may receive after the changes happen, don't have to get them straight away
Ooo Friend, Bus Friend.