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Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions

Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions

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RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(24 Feb 2015, 10:28 pm)Robert wrote Nope, it is just 4. Doing the calculations neccessary you end up with 3.8 which rounds up to4.

I can confirm that Greg in Weardale is correct: the PVR is 5. Buses have a 32-minute layover at Consett Bus Station, which is why the PVR is not 4. The vehicle allocation is three Dennis Tridents and two OmniCitys. Tridents are more-or-less guaranteed on the 0854 departure from Consett as this works off college service X78 and scholars 822, while the 1454 arrival at Consett works onto scholars 827. The other board which is allocated a Trident catches the morning peak customers and presumably requires a double-decked vehicle to alleviate capacity issues on a single decker.

The PVR of services X30/X31 is also 5 vehicles, and the vehicle allocation is four Dennis Tridents and one OmniCity.

As only three OmniCitys of Stanley's four form part of their vehicle allocation, the depot has one spare OmniCity which should see primary allocation to "Red Kite" services 45/46 in the event that a branded vehicle is unavailable. 

Sorry to spoil the fun - but if the former "West Durham Swift" services were ever to receive an upgrade, there's a high likelihood it would be in the form of double decked vehicles all around. There are some runs which need a double decked vehicle due to interworking with scholars, and others should be allocated a double decked vehicle so that people can have a seat on their peak time commute.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(24 Feb 2015, 8:02 pm)citaro5284 wrote The new Streetlites due between March and May will be deployed on three groups of services: The X66 and Lime as many have guessed, but also the Red Kites.

Now, let the guessing commence as to where the Scania Omnicities will be heading to.....

Will the Red Kites still be made up of the current services?

I'm thinking if the 47 no longer interworks with the rest of the Toonlink services, could this transfer to Stanley to join the Red Kite brand?  This would then give a standard vehicle and brand along the Rowlands Gill corridor, plus with some jiggery pokery there could maybe be a potiential saving in the PVR?
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(25 Feb 2015, 8:03 am)Dan wrote I can confirm that Greg in Weardale is correct: the PVR is 5. Buses have a 32-minute layover at Consett Bus Station, which is why the PVR is not 4. The vehicle allocation is three Dennis Tridents and two OmniCitys. Tridents are more-or-less guaranteed on the 0854 departure from Consett as this works off college service X78 and scholars 822, while the 1454 arrival at Consett works onto scholars 827. The other board which is allocated a Trident catches the morning peak customers and presumably requires a double-decked vehicle to alleviate capacity issues on a single[Image: arrow-10x10.png] decker.

The PVR of services X30/X31 is also 5 vehicles, and the vehicle allocation is four Dennis Tridents and one OmniCity.

As only three OmniCitys of Stanley's four form part of their vehicle allocation, the depot has one spare OmniCity which should see primary allocation to "Red Kite" services 45/46 in the event that a branded vehicle is unavailable. 

Sorry to spoil the fun - but if the former "West Durham Swift" services were ever to receive an upgrade, there's a high likelihood it would be in the form of double decked vehicles all around. There are some runs which need a double decked vehicle due to interworking with scholars, and others should be allocated a double decked vehicle so that people can have a seat on their peak time commute.

So the boards have been changed again. I base this on that you have always argued that all four omnicities should be allocated to services X70/X71 and all 5 Dennis Trident Presidents (first choice) should have been allocated to services X30/X31. It now appears that this isn't the case...
I'll also say that the timetable therefore states that one vehicle is entering Consett while another is loading up. Shows that that method regarding PVR workouts isnt the case so i am sure you will be able to understand where i went wrong.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
You can't really calculate PVR by a formula, and it's not necessarily possible to do it manually via the timetable as you don't know when buses may appear off other routes. You really have to have access to the companies' driver boards.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(25 Feb 2015, 4:29 pm)Greg in Weardale wrote You can't really calculate PVR by a formula, and it's not necessarily possible to do it manually via the timetable as you don't know when buses may appear off other routes. You really have to have access to the companies' driver boards.

You can and it works most of the time but obviously you cant be certain it will work 100% of the time.
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RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(25 Feb 2015, 4:23 pm)Robert wrote So the boards have been changed again. I base this on that you have always argued that all four omnicities should be allocated to services X70/X71 and all 5 Dennis Trident Presidents (first choice) should have been allocated to services X30/X31. It now appears that this isn't the case...
I'll also say that the timetable therefore states that one vehicle is entering Consett while another is loading up. Shows that that method regarding PVR workouts isnt the case so i am sure you will be able to understand where i went wrong.

Been quite some time since we last discussed the PVR of the X30/X31 and X70/X71 services! I know the allocation posted previously has been the same since September 2014, but I can't remember further back than that.

(25 Feb 2015, 4:31 pm)Robert wrote You can and it works most of the time but obviously you cant be certain it will work 100% of the time.

Greg in Weardale has a point.

The 'formula' (total running time divided by service frequency) mightn't work if the buses have a slightly unusual interworking pattern and/or extended layover periods. For the same reason as the X70/X71, you may struggle to work out the PVR of the revised 20/20A, as they have a fair amount of layover at each end. Both can be identified without the company's running boards - you just have to be sad enough to stand at a terminus point for long enough to gather the information and work it out..! Tongue 
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(25 Feb 2015, 4:37 pm)Dan wrote Greg in Weardale has a point.

The 'formula' (total running time divided by service frequency) mightn't work if the buses have a slightly unusual interworking pattern and/or extended layover periods. For the same reason as the X70/X71, you may struggle to work out the PVR of the revised 20/20A, as they have a fair amount of layover at each end. Both can be identified without the company's running boards - you just have to be sad enough to stand at a terminus point for long enough to gather the information and work it out..! Tongue 

 Completely agree and i thinkthe X70/X71 is the perfect example for his point. Obviously, if you were to add the 32 min layover into the formula, you would get 4.xx or even 5. Obviously, with me not being a 'taking photos' sort of person, i dont follow this layover malarkey s much but when i get told, i certainly dont throw it out of the window.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(25 Feb 2015, 5:24 pm)Robert wrote  Completely agree and i thinkthe X70/X71 is the perfect example for his point. Obviously, if you were to add the 32 min layover into the formula, you would get 4.xx or even 5. Obviously, with me not being a 'taking photos' sort of person, i dont follow this layover malarkey s much but when i get told, i certainly dont throw it out of the window.
Dont you just hate it when your surname is used in a sentence in another persons post Wink , I would be a Millionaire perhaps even Billionaire if I had a quid on my surname being mentioned in sentence/conversation or on tv, happens more often than you think you know.
Marxista Fozzski
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(25 Feb 2015, 5:59 pm)Malarkey wrote Dont you just hate it when your surname is used in a sentence in another persons post Wink , I would be a Millionaire perhaps even Billionaire if I had a quid on my surname being mentioned in sentence/conversation or on tv, happens more often than you think you know.
When I think of your surname, it reminds me of a scene from Band of Brothers



I nearly cried and pissed myself laughing when I saw it a few weeks back...I. very easy to amuse

You would be a £1 closer to being that million(billion)aire through me linking your surname to TV
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
If the Toon Link was to get deckers but could find something short term until next year, GNE could do this:

- Riverside / Hexham get 14+2 spare deckers for the TEN.
- 6071 - 6083 meet the exact PVR of 13 allowing the Toon Link to be upgraded without upstaging the TEN.
- Tyne Tees Xpress gets 6 + 1 spare deckers allowing 6043 - 6048 to go to Crook for the Pronto.
- Red Arrows Geminis (6001-7 and 6049-53) get power sockets fitted and joined alongside 6084.
- Deptford lose 6099 to Washington which then joins the rest of the Red Arrows B9s at Washington.
- Washington in turn release 6054 / 6055 to CLS (no power sockets) but would be fitted with the same systems as what the Cobalt Clipper and Fab 56 B9s are getting and make up the full PVR of 17 on the Angel.
- 3941 remains at Riverside as a spare for the Toon Link.
- 3942 goes to Crook as a spare for the Pronto.
- 3963 goes to Deptford as a spare for the 56 alongside 6100.
- 3964 goes to Percy Main as a spare for the 309 / 310 alongside 6117.
- 3962 and 3965 remain at Chester as Angel spares.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
It seems like they are in no hurry to reapply Pronto vinyls on the front of one of the Pronto branded President's, so I'm wondering if this could potentially be a sign that the X21 may get investment soon.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
Im sure that when the Quaylink goes commercial they are getting new buses which then Percy Main might be getting the Optare Versas for the 17/17A. (Not confirmed)
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(27 Feb 2015, 6:21 pm)Jimmi wrote It seems like they are in no hurry to reapply Pronto vinyls on the front of one of the Pronto branded President's, so I'm wondering if this could potentially be a sign that the X21 may get investment soon.

I don't think GNE will upgrade the X21 until a suitable heavyweight decker is out there on the market or an existing B9 service justifies an upgrade. I know lightweight deckers are good initially but what about in 7 years time? GNE have stuck with heavyweight deckers (except the Angel) for the past 4 years now and nothing major has gone wrong with any of them. What you've got to remember also is that with no turbo on a Cummins Unit when it fails, the Horsepower would only be at roughly 150-200 bhp and that would cause problems.  I've got nothing against Cummins engined vehicles but I don't like them for demanding work whatever the setup.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(27 Feb 2015, 10:16 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote I don't think GNE will upgrade the X21 until a suitable heavyweight decker is out there on the market or an existing B9 service justifies an upgrade. I know lightweight deckers are good initially but what about in 7 years time? GNE have stuck with heavyweight deckers (except the Angel) for the past 4 years now and nothing major has gone wrong with any of them. What you've got to remember also is that with no turbo on a Cummins Unit when it fails, the Horsepower would only be at roughly 150-200 bhp and that would cause problems.  I've got nothing against Cummins engined vehicles but I don't like them for demanding work whatever the setup.
Out of interest, as I have no idea how engines work (well in any detail anyway), how often do/likely is it for, a turbo to fail?
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(27 Feb 2015, 10:31 pm)mb134 wrote Out of interest, as I have no idea how engines work (well in any detail anyway), how often do/likely is it for, a turbo to fail?

Well judging by the 57 plate E400 examples at Ashington, normally before 7 years. Look at the state of Washington's B9 Geminis 6001 - 6007 (Jul 2011 first service and always been on the X1) then look at the state of Blyth's and Belmont's Cummins Engined VDL Gemini deckers (first service Jan 2012 mostly for the 308 then only used on X10 / X11 after March / April 2013). That says it all basically.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(27 Feb 2015, 11:06 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote Well judging by the 57 plate E400 examples at Ashington, normally before 7 years. Look at the state of Washington's B9 Geminis 6001 - 6007 (Jul 2011 first service and always been on the X1) then look at the state of Blyth's and Belmont's Cummins Engined VDL Gemini deckers (first service Jan 2012 mostly for the 308 then only used on X10 / X11 after March / April 2013). That says it all basically.
Ah okay Smile
Without this turning into a "how stuff works" bit, would you be able to briefly explain what they do, and why it's bad if they break? Tried to look at Wikipedia but that just confused me Undecided cheers Smile
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(27 Feb 2015, 10:16 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote I don't think GNE will upgrade the X21 until a suitable heavyweight decker is out there on the market or an existing B9 service justifies an upgrade. I know lightweight deckers are good initially but what about in 7 years time? GNE have stuck with heavyweight deckers (except the Angel) for the past 4 years now and nothing major has gone wrong with any of them. What you've got to remember also is that with no turbo on a Cummins Unit when it fails, the Horsepower would only be at roughly 150-200 bhp and that would cause problems.  I've got nothing against Cummins engined vehicles but I don't like them for demanding work whatever the setup.


I think GNE would rather go for this option than have 7 more years of breakdowns with the B7s (or however long it may be) before a suitable heavyweight vehicle is out there...
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(28 Feb 2015, 10:13 am)Robert wrote I think GNE would rather go for this option than have 7 more years of breakdowns with the B7s (or however long it may be) before a suitable heavyweight vehicle is out there...

But a heavyweight vehicle bar a few lecky and build issues, would have no major trouble. Several of the 61 reg DB300 deckers at Blyth and Belmont have had engine trouble and the haven't been always used on express work but the 7x 11 reg B9s at Washington have dealt with a more demanding route (about the same length as the X21 / X22 between Newcastle and Ashington) and have suffered from no issies often with full loads between Newcastle and Galleries combined with rough driving to keep the service running as close to time as possible. 
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(28 Feb 2015, 12:33 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote But a heavyweight vehicle bar a few lecky and build issues, would have no major trouble. Several of the 61 reg DB300 deckers at Blyth and Belmont have had engine trouble and the haven't been always used on express work but the 7x 11 reg B9s at Washington have dealt with a more demanding route (about the same length as the X21 / X22 between Newcastle and Ashington) and have suffered from no issies often with full loads between Newcastle and Galleries combined with rough driving to keep the service running as close to time as possible. 

Heavyweight buses are the past, Euro emission levels are best met with a smaller heavier engine hence the lightweight chassis - so they still meet TfL regulations.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(28 Feb 2015, 1:21 pm)citaro5284 wrote What has TfL got to do with buses in the North East or any other part of the country for that matter?

Nothing, as long as they meet Euro 6. Heavyweight deckers should still be around for Euro 6 becuase it looks like Scania will still be offering a 9 litre 250bhp engine on the E400 MMC bodywork. Stagecoach would probably buy for demanding routes and so would NCT consider it too. 
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
If GNE were to invest in new buses for the Coaster, do you think E400 MMCs remapped to cope with the hills would be justified or do you think that single deckers are more suited?
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RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(01 Mar 2015, 10:58 am)DaveyBowyer wrote If GNE were to invest in new buses for the Coaster, do you think E400 MMCs remapped to cope with the hills would be justified or do you think that single deckers are more suited?

I'd imagine that the next step up for the "Coaster" services would be double deckers - whether it be cascades or new vehicles. Especially during summer, they do get quite full, and it'd help keep things running smoothly when the Metro encounters an issue! Problem is that, outside of peak times and/or summer, single deckers are more suited.

Would like to see a full double decker allocation to "Coaster" service 1, "Prince Bishops" services 20/20A, "Crusader" service 27, "Diamond" services 43/44 and the former "West Durham Swift" X30/X31 and X70/X71 services, but I'm not sure if this will happen any time in the near future, especially with the threat of Quality Contracts ahead of us.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(01 Mar 2015, 10:58 am)DaveyBowyer wrote If GNE were to invest in new buses for the Coaster, do you think E400 MMCs remapped to cope with the hills would be justified or do you think that single deckers are more suited?

I think it would depend on passenger numbers, as i live in Sunderland, i'm not sure on how well it does but i think the current Coaster brand only suits Single deckers, i think the brand wouldn't be as good if it got deckers. 


I still think it will be the Crusader and Pronto for deckers...Like i said before, least that Horrid Crusader brand can go!

I think there's another service but i'm not sure what! 
Ooo Friend, Bus Friend.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(01 Mar 2015, 11:04 am)Dan wrote I'd imagine that the next step up for the "Coaster" services would be double deckers - whether it be cascades or new vehicles. Especially during summer, they do get quite full, and it'd help keep things running smoothly when the Metro encounters an issue! Problem is that, outside of peak times and/or summer, single deckers are more suited.

Would like to see a full double decker allocation to "Coaster" service 1, "Prince Bishops" services 20/20A, "Crusader" service 27, "Diamond" services 43/44 and the former "West Durham Swift" X30/X31 and X70/X71 services, but I'm not sure if this will happen any time in the near future, especially with the threat of Quality Contracts ahead of us.

I don't think it would be cascades. If GNE wanted to continue with shortfalls, they could use 6001-6007 and 6049-6055 but, the next natural progression role for them would be to upgrade the Pronto and provide reliable spares to existing B9 services and if all goes well with the flybrid wheels on the CC and Fab 56, make up the PVR on the Angel.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(01 Mar 2015, 12:45 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote I don't think it would be cascades. If GNE wanted to continue with shortfalls, they could use 6001-6007 and 6049-6055 but, the next natural progression role for them would be to upgrade the Pronto and provide reliable spares to existing B9 services and if all goes well with the flybrid wheels on the CC and Fab 56, make up the PVR on the Angel.

You're desperate to get rid of the B9s on the X1 aren't you! Tongue
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RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(01 Mar 2015, 12:58 pm)aureolin wrote You're desperate to get rid of the B9s on the X1 aren't you! Tongue

That's why i think Citaro should just tell him whats happening with the double decker order...  Angel
Ooo Friend, Bus Friend.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(01 Mar 2015, 1:09 pm)Michael wrote That's why i think Citaro should just tell him whats happening with the double decker order...  Angel
Will the double deckers be arriving at a similar time to the Streetlite's?
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(01 Mar 2015, 1:40 pm)mb134 wrote Will the double deckers be arriving at a similar time to the Streetlite's?

No idea, i would imagine, the deckers will probables be after the Streetlites.

Citaro is the best person to answer it. =) 
Ooo Friend, Bus Friend.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
(01 Mar 2015, 1:54 pm)Michael wrote No idea, i would imagine, the deckers will probables be after the Streetlites.

Citaro is the best person to answer it. =) 

Thats if they are getting any deckers this year. If they do i can only imagine it will be for a service like the Pronto. Surely the priority for this years orders is to get rid of all non-DDA single deckers (ie. the renowns) and focus on deckers next year.
RE: Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions
I think for this year Pronto should receive investment, I think it will too.
Fab57 needs new buses, whether this will be cascades remains to be seen.
I think we might see another MPD displacement so East Durham or North Tyne Links (Remember 238 is already been operated by solos)