A lot of Arriva NE fleet was bought between 2009-2014, a lot of that is coming upto 10-15 years old, do we know if there are any plans to do an entire re-order similar to what they did in in 2009/10/11/12/13 with massive orders?

Unlikely. I dont think any bus operator is in a financial position to replace the fleet that should have already been or is due to be replaced anytime soon.
We may see small ad-hoc orders, but certainly no wholesale investment.
Also, I believe that changes in Arriva/DB accounting now means that 18 years is the expected vehicle life.

(26 May 2023, 7:49 pm)RobinHood wrote Also, I believe that changes in Arriva/DB accounting now means that 18 years is the expected vehicle life.

And as soon as a large number of vehicles hit 18, it'll no doubt be upped to 20!

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It's fine, there's so many cuts due they'll all just get withdrawn due to no longer being required.

Electrics for Blyth will see off some bits too.

(27 May 2023, 8:19 am)Jimmi wrote It's fine, there's so many cuts due they'll all just get withdrawn due to no longer being required.

Electrics for Blyth will see off some bits too.

You can't make a loss if you don't exist anymore.


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Think the biggest indicator whether Arriva will be able to invest for Northumbria & Durham County will be the impact of the ABTRL when that opens.

If Arriva were going to order now based on no impact (which I'll doubt will happen)

Option 1:
- 12x E400MMC to replace 7541-52
- 7541-52 either cascaded to Blyth, or Darlington for the 7 with further classic E400 cascades as a result

Option 2:
- 22x StreetDeck for Blyth (X7/X8/X9/X10/X11)
- 43/44/45 and 306/308 allocated 64/15 plate E400s, 61 plate DB300s and a small selection of 59 plate DB300s. Depending if enough for spares, rest of 59 plate DB300s and also the 57 plate classic E400s put into a lesser role or cascaded.

Note that if Arriva did a StreetDeck order for Blyth, could also give scope to throw in some 6-Cylinder StreetDecks for the X93 allowing the B9TLs to take a backseat role and help out with the summer loadings / timetables.

(27 May 2023, 8:59 am)L469 YVK wrote Think the biggest indicator whether Arriva will be able to invest for Northumbria & Durham County will be the impact of the ABTRL when that opens.

If Arriva were going to order now based on no impact (which I'll doubt will happen)

Option 1:
- 12x E400MMC to replace 7541-52
- 7541-52 either cascaded to Blyth, or Darlington for the 7 with further classic E400 cascades as a result

Option 2:
- 22x StreetDeck for Blyth (X7/X8/X9/X10/X11)
- 43/44/45 and 306/308 allocated 64/15 plate E400s, 61 plate DB300s and a small selection of 59 plate DB300s. Depending if enough for spares, rest of 59 plate DB300s and also the 57 plate classic E400s put into a lesser role or cascaded.

Note that if Arriva did a StreetDeck order for Blyth, could also give scope to throw in some 6-Cylinder StreetDecks for the X93 allowing the B9TLs to take a backseat role and help out with the summer loadings / timetables.

That doesn't solve the age streelites/solos, Pulsars

They need more than 22 or 11 buses

I think you're imagining a very worst case scenario in relation to the Northumberland Line reopening.

The majority of custom during the day is between towns, not to Newcastle. NL is focused on Newcastle passengers and those who can drive...

(27 May 2023, 10:18 am)omnicity4659 wrote I think you're imagining a very worst case scenario in relation to the Northumberland Line reopening.

The majority of custom during the day is between towns, not to Newcastle. NL is focused on Newcastle passengers and those who can drive...

I disagree personally. People just don't go to town as the bus goes via Cramlington so why bother going further if you don't need to.

If there's a train that goes direct to Newcastle, why bother with the bus at all, and just go straight to Newcastle in the same time roughly.

The X7/X8/X9 are borderline unusable lately because of Sandy Lane / Matthew Bank so unless something changes fast, all 3 will be impacted massively.

Some people are underestimating the damage the trainline will do but I'm going to flip the coin and say I honestly couldn't give two hoots about the buses, there's a new train line that gets me into Newcastle in 20 minutes or so every 30 minutes regardless to time vs from 40 minutes via bus and that from is generous as it's more like 90 minutes at peak times lately

how frequent will the trains be?

(27 May 2023, 11:28 am)Unber43 wrote how frequent will the trains be?

Every 30 minutes during the day, hourly Sunday and evenings.

So basically the same as the Blyth expresses and ever so slightly less frequent than the X21 as where the stations are there's only one of the routes nearby anyway apart from the Newsham area.

(27 May 2023, 10:53 am)Storx wrote I disagree personally. People just don't go to town as the bus goes via Cramlington so why bother going further if you don't need to.

If there's a train that goes direct to Newcastle, why bother with the bus at all, and just go straight to Newcastle in the same time roughly.

The X7/X8/X9 are borderline unusable lately because of Sandy Lane / Matthew Bank so unless something changes fast, all 3 will be impacted massively.

Some people are underestimating the damage the trainline will do but I'm going to flip the coin and say I honestly couldn't give two hoots about the buses, there's a new train line that gets me into Newcastle in 20 minutes or so every 30 minutes regardless to time vs from 40 minutes via bus and that from is generous as it's more like 90 minutes at peak times lately

Again, as Omnicity4659 has said, I think yourself and others are massively underestimating the amount of local travel on the SE Northumberland 'X' services. 

Newbiggin to Ashington, Ashington to Stakeford, Ashington to Guide Post, Ashington to Bedlington, Bedlington Station to Bedlington, Blyth to Cramlington, Ashington/Bedlington to Cramlington Industrial Estates, Ashington/Bedlington/Newbiggin/Blyth to Wansbeck Hospital, Bebside to Blyth, Newsham to Blyth are all popular travel patterns that aren't impacted *at all* by the introduction of trains. There's also the flows from Newcastle to Cramlington Industrial Estates, which are nice earners for the buses leaving Newcastle during the AM peak.

On top of those flows, there's all the less than optimal station locations. If you're living in the southern part of Ashington around The Elephant, are you walking to the train station (about a 25 minute walk itself) and getting the train - or just hopping on the bus to Newcastle? Same goes for those living in the centre of Blyth and Bedlington. 

I think it's reasonably clear, with the number of parking spots being created, what the target market is for the line.

Even for the Newcastle traffic - I'd urge you to see the Morpeth express services each morning. At the very least the 0713 X18, 0728 X14, and 0743 X15 are pretty much full, every day, and lots of that custom is from Morpeth. Even the 0803 X18 is looks pretty healthy leaving Morpeth Bus Station on the days when I see it.

Anecdotally, mainly from what I've seen myself on my commute and heard from drivers that I've talked to, passenger numbers currently are very healthy too - I'd suggest this could be partially why we're not seeing huge cuts on these routes in July.

Also will people be able to justify the price of the trains, especially with the cancellations which Northern Experience.

(27 May 2023, 12:46 pm)mb134 wrote Again, as Omnicity4659 has said, I think yourself and others are massively underestimating the amount of local travel on the SE Northumberland 'X' services. 

Newbiggin to Ashington, Ashington to Stakeford, Ashington to Guide Post, Ashington to Bedlington, Bedlington Station to Bedlington, Blyth to Cramlington, Ashington/Bedlington to Cramlington Industrial Estates, Ashington/Bedlington/Newbiggin/Blyth to Wansbeck Hospital, Bebside to Blyth, Newsham to Blyth are all popular travel patterns that aren't impacted *at all* by the introduction of trains. There's also the flows from Newcastle to Cramlington Industrial Estates, which are nice earners for the buses leaving Newcastle during the AM peak.

On top of those flows, there's all the less than optimal station locations. If you're living in the southern part of Ashington around The Elephant, are you walking to the train station (about a 25 minute walk itself) and getting the train - or just hopping on the bus to Newcastle? Same goes for those living in the centre of Blyth and Bedlington. 

I think it's reasonably clear, with the number of parking spots being created, what the target market is for the line.

Even for the Newcastle traffic - I'd urge you to see the Morpeth express services each morning. At the very least the 0713 X18, 0728 X14, and 0743 X15 are pretty much full, every day, and lots of that custom is from Morpeth. Even the 0803 X18 is looks pretty healthy leaving Morpeth Bus Station on the days when I see it.

Anecdotally, mainly from what I've seen myself on my commute and heard from drivers that I've talked to, passenger numbers currently are very healthy too - I'd suggest this could be partially why we're not seeing huge cuts on these routes in July.

Aye that's some valid points but one thing that we might see is the complete change in flows ie someone from Bedlington station might get the bus to Ashington as it takes ages to get to Newcastle. Now with the train it's 50/50 so they might change where they go. 

Personally though I think it's the X7/X8/X9/X20/X21 that will suffer the most. The others less so. 

Who knows we can all predict but similar openings have seen bus use plummet. 

I guess it depends how Arriva responds aswell as by leaving routes as they are long term won't benefit them. For example would it be better to have an extra 1 an hour vs an extra X21 if flows are changing and more 57/57A's vs the X22 just to pick two. They both do those links and would offer alternative destinations supplementing the trains. 

Similar would it better to drop the X8 and even one of the X10/X11 and replace it with 43 extensions and offer more links etc.

A 10% loss in patronage could be enough to tipple them to marginal services but that depends on how much they're realistically doing. You have to remember there's no express services from Kirkhill or Stobhill to Newcastle, the two areas closest to Morpeth station.

(27 May 2023, 1:16 pm)Storx wrote Aye that's some valid points but one thing that we might see is the complete change in flows ie someone from Bedlington station might get the bus to Ashington as it takes ages to get to Newcastle. Now with the train it's 50/50 so they might change where they go. 

Personally though I think it's the X7/X8/X9/X20/X21 that will suffer the most. The others less so. 

Who knows we can all predict but similar openings have seen bus use plummet. 

I guess it depends how Arriva responds aswell as by leaving routes as they are long term won't benefit them. For example would it be better to have an extra 1 an hour vs an extra X21 if flows are changing and more 57/57A's vs the X22 just to pick two. They both do those links and would offer alternative destinations supplementing the trains. 

Similar would it better to drop the X8 and even one of the X10/X11 and replace it with 43 extensions and offer more links etc.

A 10% loss in patronage could be enough to tipple them to marginal services but that depends on how much they're realistically doing. You have to remember there's no express services from Kirkhill or Stobhill to Newcastle, the two areas closest to Morpeth station.

Let's be honest, if people in Bedlington Station are getting the bus to Ashington it's for a specific reason. It's also not 50/50, there's 5 buses per hour between Bedlington Station and Ashington, which serve multiple areas of both places, versus the 2 trains per hour that then require a walk to get to where people want to go. Anyone who currently goes to Ashington from Bedlington Station and will suddenly hop on a train to Newcastle are in an incredibly small minority. 

I can't speak massively for the Blyth routes, but the X21 does very well from local hops that I detailed earlier that won't be impacted at all by the train. The X20 is similar - not a single person from North Seaton is going to choose the train over the X20, nor are people from Lynemouth or Ellington. 

Nobody will truly know how this will impact Arriva Northumbria until the line opens and settles in, but having a pretty good idea of how passenger flows are on the routes that are likely to be impacted, I personally don't see the impact being anywhere near as bad as what people are making it out to be.

Also the X20 is basically direct it has like 3 stops outside Ashington

(27 May 2023, 2:00 pm)mb134 wrote Let's be honest, if people in Bedlington Station are getting the bus to Ashington it's for a specific reason. It's also not 50/50, there's 5 buses per hour between Bedlington Station and Ashington, which serve multiple areas of both places, versus the 2 trains per hour that then require a walk to get to where people want to go. Anyone who currently goes to Ashington from Bedlington Station and will suddenly hop on a train to Newcastle are in an incredibly small minority. 

I can't speak massively for the Blyth routes, but the X21 does very well from local hops that I detailed earlier that won't be impacted at all by the train. The X20 is similar - not a single person from North Seaton is going to choose the train over the X20, nor are people from Lynemouth or Ellington. 

Nobody will truly know how this will impact Arriva Northumbria until the line opens and settles in, but having a pretty good idea of how passenger flows are on the routes that are likely to be impacted, I personally don't see the impact being anywhere near as bad as what people are making it out to be.

Yeah some points. See personally I'd always take a train even if it meant walk for 10 - 15 minutes because of the reliability. 

If a train is scheduled to get in at 8.35 and I needed to go to Monument it's a pretty safe bet but a bus that got in at 8.32 isn't so you'd have to go one earlier at 8.05. Add the fact the bus takes another 35 minutes on top of that your looking at leaving let's say Cowpen Percy Arms at 6.57am in the morning vs 8.10am with a 15 minute walk. 

Personally I know which option I'd be taking there. Duplicate that to every station and you'll start making big impacts. 

(That's using the X9 times currently)

The X7 is the same around here so can see similar movement, evening buses are even worse with delays of over 30 - 40 minutes not being uncommon lately.

I can't comment on Ashington as much though it's not an area I know too well loadings wise but I wouldn't be surprised to see the X21 and X22 down to every 30 Minutes and then work with the 1/2/57 etc to give 15 minute service on the local corridors.

You're right though that we won't see the real impact until it opens, one of us will be right though.r