(18 Feb 2020, 6:01 pm)L469 YVK wrote If Arriva was to be fragmented (and before anyone mentions, yes I know Arriva will most likely be sold as a whole) but this is what I'd think would happen to keep the Competition Commission happy.
Northumbria:
- Ashington > GNE
- Blyth > Stagecoach
- Jesmond > GNE with routes later split between Percy Main & Riverside (306 goes to Stagecoach, I don't see why GNE would want it)
Durham & Tees:
- Belmont > Stagecoach (Stagecoach also gets whole of X12)
- Darlington > GNE * In return for Stagecoach getting the 306, GNE completely get the 7
- Stockton > GNE
- Redcar > GNE
- Whitby > Transdev
If anyone was going to buy anything it would be per area. No way can you just drip and drop depots here and there. Don't know how you've come to these neither. You're creating less competition in most area.
GNE dominate Darlington / Bishop / North Tyneside / Peterlee it just makes no sense.
Also Whitby is an outstation of Redcar so you can't have one going to one and the other another.
If Stagecoach bought it (which your hinting) what likely would happen is they'd get everything bar Stockton which they'd be forced to sell off. All the other areas don't really cause any issues even known it's not for sale and they wouldn't buy it anyway.
The big 4 have much bigger issues with there finances due to cock ups with trains than to bother with buying more buses:
GoAhead (GNE) - Thameslink / Southern
Stagecoach - Virgin East Coast
Arriva - Northern
First - Avanti / Transpennine