(14 Oct 2020, 3:39 pm)L469 YVK wrote As it stands, GoNe as of Jan 2020 has reduce the Coast Road & 57 PVR count combined by 16%. If they dropped the 309 & 310 to every 30 minutes with the 311 running every 15 minutes, that would reduce the PVR by a further 11% which I doubt they would do for a negligible saving.
Arriva on the other hand if they reduced the 306 & 308 to every 20 minutes would reduce the headcount of full size vehicles (single or double deck) by nearly 28%. With the 51/51A (minibuses) also taken into account and an extension of the 51A to Marden & Whitley Bay, that saving would still almost be 20%.
GoNE are in the stronger position and if Arriva reduced frequency, they'd likely have to pull the X6 unless other misc workings could be pulled in to cover it. I tried timetabling a reduced 306/308 with the X6 and it's almost impossible. Most of the connections onto the X6 are covered by GoNE too.
The Coast Road corridor has been dog p!ssing territory for years now. A quick look of any zonal structure will add weight to the theory and that competition drives down prices.
However, if the market isn't there (metro, bus, car, taxi is a big divider), then you're going to see the empty buses and reductions to frequencies. Regardless of how attractive ticketing may be. It just isn't sustainable.
I'd also argue that the creation of the business parks on or near the A19 corridor has had an impact, particularly as businesses move there away from the city centre.
Something has to give and I can't see it being the attractive prices. I can see it being frequency or vehicle size though.
The first operator to flinch and increase their ticket prices, will be the one who loses out imo.