(18 Nov 2020, 7:48 pm)Storx wrote It's a very different railway line to most of those to be fair though. It's more comparable to the Metro and the routes it's covering are every 30 minute / 20 minutes at best with nothing really left especially for the 1, 19, X7, X8, X9, X10, X11, X21 which will be hit hard from Blyth / Bedlington Station / Ashington / Seaton Delaval / New Hartley end. You've also got the big problem that they're extremely unreliable at rush fault (for no fault of their own) because of numerous bottlenecks; Sandy Lane, Blyth (Cowpen Road), Laverick Hall, Gosforth High Street, South Gosforth, Blue House Roundabout just to name a few.

People will be more happy to use a train which takes 30 minutes from Ashington to Newcastle rather than a bus that might take 55 minutes but it might take longer. You've also got a good connection at Northumberland Park to connect with the Metro so there's more places to go outside and supposedly the new railway line will be under Nexus fares which will allow easier integration with the Metro pricing plus there's going to be free parking at most the stations so people further afield could use them (288 spaces at Seaton Delaval for example, 500 or so at Ashington etc).

The rest of the services you listed above aren't really the same as it's difficult to connect to the Metro so unless your going to Newcastle Centre they're not the best or they're really unfrequent compared to alternative bus(es).

Apart from the 2, 57, 308 and X22 I can see everything else being hit hard.

Specifically looking at the Ashington/Bedlington end, I honestly don't see a huge shift away. 

If we go place by place along the X21 route, just to give an example:
Newbiggin - If people are using public transport to Newcastle, I don't see them paying twice.
 
Ashington - X20 is 40ish minutes. The station is bang in the middle of Ashington, majority of housing will be a decent walk/bus trip away - by which point its likely just as quick to get an X21/22 (or X20, particularly if living more towards North Seaton).

Stakeford - Will anyone bus to Bedlington Station to catch a train? Likely not, again bus is probably the way. 

Bedlington Station - To Newcastle, yep train is quicker. But if going up to Bedlington, Cramlington Industrial Estate, Gosforth then the bus is definitely/likely (in the case of Gosforth) the better option. Also if anyone misses a train, the bus stop is literally seconds away and they'll be on the A1 before the next train even rocks up (assuming the train is half hourly). 

Bedlington - Literally do not see the point in anyone going down to Bedlington Station to get on a train that'll take the same amount of time as the bus would have. To be honest the process of going down to get the train will make it far longer than getting on a bus and being in town in 30 minutes.

I really don't see many people using the line that are already bus users, it's really targeting people who drive into Newcastle. I think it'll be busy to start with but the novelty will quickly wear off, and that it was a mistake making it a conventional rail line rather than extending the Metro.