(18 Nov 2020, 8:01 pm)mb134 wrote Specifically looking at the Ashington/Bedlington end, I honestly don't see a huge shift away. 

If we go place by place along the X21 route, just to give an example:
Newbiggin - If people are using public transport to Newcastle, I don't see them paying twice.
 
Ashington - X20 is 40ish minutes. The station is bang in the middle of Ashington, majority of housing will be a decent walk/bus trip away - by which point its likely just as quick to get an X21/22 (or X20, particularly if living more towards North Seaton).

Stakeford - Will anyone bus to Bedlington Station to catch a train? Likely not, again bus is probably the way. 

Bedlington Station - To Newcastle, yep train is quicker. But if going up to Bedlington, Cramlington Industrial Estate, Gosforth then the bus is definitely/likely (in the case of Gosforth) the better option. Also if anyone misses a train, the bus stop is literally seconds away and they'll be on the A1 before the next train even rocks up (assuming the train is half hourly). 

Bedlington - Literally do not see the point in anyone going down to Bedlington Station to get on a train that'll take the same amount of time as the bus would have. To be honest the process of going down to get the train will make it far longer than getting on a bus and being in town in 30 minutes.

I really don't see many people using the line that are already bus users, it's really targeting people who drive into Newcastle. I think it'll be busy to start with but the novelty will quickly wear off, and that it was a mistake making it a conventional rail line rather than extending the Metro.

Those points are relevant I think. 

There will also be the people boarding and travelling between stations, where the train just won't be an option. Just like on the other lines which feed in and out of the town.
For the longer trips, then I can see them taking the train over the bus.

But as you say, someone in Newbiggin could sit on the same bus all the way to the town, rather than get off in Ashington and pay additional costs, hope for a decent connection and then use the train.
Some may, I can't see the majority doing it.