(03 Jan 2021, 10:09 am)IRHardy wrote The problem is that two issues have come together which are incompatible:

1. Franchising:
The bus companies are businesses and what Transport for Greater Manchester are planning to do is to put all the bus services out to contract. The winner gets paid for operating that service, but if that is not the existing operator, then the existing operator does not get any compensation for that part of the business being taken away from them (i.e stolen). So the efforts that these companies have put into their businesses (which in most cases they indirectly purchased from GMPTE in good faith) means nothing and TfGM are saying is not worth anything. When the buses were nationalised to create the NBC in the 1960's, the operations were purchased from the existing owners, the owners received recompense for their business being taken away from them.
If I owned a business and the "government" decided that I could no longer carry on trading as they were going to take that business away from me, I would want compensating for the loss of income.

2. COVID-19:
The Government funding for bus services was because the Government imposed Social Distancing requirements which meant that more buses were needed to be run than would needed in "normal" times. When the SD requirements are removed, then the Government funding for bus companies will disappear and the bus companies will be back on their own, having to make enough money to keep the services running.

Franchising - In Manchester there's only really Stagecoach who would have reason to complain the business they acquired from GM Buses is being taken away. Rotala & Go Ahead have entered Manchester knowing franchising is on the table. The government/TfGM are in no way saying they can no longer continue trading, just that the parameters of operating are changing. Franchising still allows for companies to be profitable. 

COVID-19 - Not all operators & regions introduced dupes, but all operators did receive life support funding. NE operators did respond positively and it seems GNE even  seen a lucrative opportunity in using their surplus fleet under contract to other operators for scholars dupes. Clearly the big issue for operators is plummeting passenger numbers which makes it impossible to run a service for a profit. Bus operators, however, have received a disproportionate amount of government support. As a restaurant operator, I'd be doing cartwheels down Northumberland Street if our businesses received anything like what bus operators are. It's in poor taste to take this money 'for as long as necessary', but then demand the government butt out of your business on demand. 

(03 Jan 2021, 1:25 pm)streetdeckfan wrote If I was a bus operator I'd probably be inclined to tell TfGM to GFY.
They're working on the premise that the operators will want to play their game, but if they don't they're left without any operators to run their franchised services

I don't think that'll be an issue, because money. Manchester is probably the most diverse bus market in the UK with Stagecoach, First, Arriva, Go-Ahead, Rotala, Transdev & now Abelio all having an interest. If one operator declines to bid for a route, another will have no trouble in picking it up. It was Brian Souter (excellent businessman, terrible human) who was most vocal against franchising whenever & wherever it came up. Since he's no longer directly active in managing Stagecoach I'd be surprised if they went through with his previously bullish threats of not participating in franchising & selling depots to land developers.  

I'm not convinced franchising is the best thing for buses since low-floors, but I do think TfGM's proposals make enough sense for this to be a sizeable pilot to see if it can work.