(24 Jan 2021, 4:46 pm)Storx wrote This, as someone who lives on the Blyth and Tyne line if I can get a train in 15 minutes to Newcastle vs a bus than can take an hour then sadly I really don't care about the bus route that runs parallel and neither will most locals.
Most routes will be barely affected anyway there's only 3 which are going to be hit hard imo (19 (GNE), X8 and X9) and some which will see changes and some decreases potentially (1, X7, X10, X11, X21) due to less demand or to cover up gaps which come from the train taking passengers. X7 in Amersham to replace X9 for example or changes to the X10/X11 to let more variations ie create a competitive bus for the X8 and to replace parts of the X9.
Overall it's a massive bonus for us as we get a quicker service which I'll imagine will be cheaper aswell if the rumours of using Metro fares.
There's no doubt some people will choose the train over the bus.
However, I'd hazard a guess that many others will stick with the bus. You just have to look at Cramlington as an example of that.
I think there's more to it than just journey times and it being a straight choice based on a 15min journey vs a 60min journey. Ultimate end destination and proximity to the station vs bus stop are two factors which come straight to mind. Then there's cost.
Just a couple of factors off the top of my head.