(19 May 2021, 10:43 pm)peter wrote As you point out, this September change has taken place in the past, apart from the COVID-affected 2020. So it wouldn't be too unreasonable for the changes to occur earlier this year in-line with the complete easing of lockdown in the COVID-affected 2021. However as has been said, it's probably noteworthy that changes haven't been made in the May easing of lockdown, so like you say perhaps we will be returning to the traditional September-time changes.
It certainly would be interesting to see GNE attempt to strengthen their position in Durham. I definitely think increasing the frequency to Bishop Auckland with the 6 now reduced to every 15 minutes could be a good move. While I think the East Durham 22-24 group and Coxhoe 56-58/X12 group would be hard to compete with (and Darlington and the 7 would be quite a challenge), the 43/48/49/X46 could easily be competed against. A nice comparatively newer GNE bus versus an ageing ALX400 or Optare Solo - there would definitely be some appeal there. There's also potential for competition with the 64 now GNE have an increased presence in the Arnison Centre.
I think only an operator consumed by madness would start competing services at this time.
Operating costs are higher than they were (extra cleaning etc) and passenger numbers can't be more than about 65% of pre covid.
PLUS the National Bus Strategy is all about removing "over bussing" (i.e competing services, excessively high frequencies to protect market share) either through Partnership or Franchising. it appears that Local Authorities will have the final say on bus network design.