(22 May 2021, 9:57 pm)peter wrote Oops got my dates mixed up with the X66/67 there, thought it was around the same time! But my point still stands about the OK1/X1 and I agree, I'd like to see some competition from GNE primarily cause it might make Arriva step their game up more than anything else! But agreed GNE have lost out previously in cases such as the OK1, the X7 to Middlesbrough, and the 55 to Hartlepool!
I don't think we would see the same extent of the Northumberland bus wars in County Durham. Firstly given the previous examples mentioned above, I don't think GNE would take the commercial risk of trying to compete across multiple routes. In turn, like L469 YVK said, I don't think Arriva are in much of a position to respond at present if GNE did decide to go all out - they certainly don't seem to have a vast availability of extra drivers and vehicles. There again, my point is that if the threat was there, I think ANE could make route and vehicle improvements happen - but they won't improve things cause why would they when passengers have no other alternative - they have to use Arriva in what ever state the service is running atm - older buses and limited frequencies.
As for the examples you mention, it seems clear GNE have already lost out as far as the X6 is concerned but if Arriva reintroduced the X21 would that be such a bad thing? Say Arriva introduced an express Durham to Sunderland service to compete with the 20/X20, it would be interesting to see who would come out trumps there with Arriva having the better network in Durham, but with GNE having the better network in Sunderland. And given the state of the X12, I can't see Arriva winning in the race to Newcastle.
But if past examples are anything to go by, say the 21 were eventually extended to Brandon, I'm sure the only response by Arriva would be on the relevant route, so I could imagine 49/49A would be extended to the Arnison Centre to compete. GNE would, judging by past examples, lose out and withdraw their extension. But there's a good chance that the 49/49A extension would remain, which would be an improvement for passengers. I'm not suggesting we want an all out war, but I think a little competition on one of ANE's routes would result in benefits in the long-run! The only real loser is GNE, but it's entirely possible that ANE genuinely might not be in a position to respond these days and GNE might finally come out on top, especially with an extension on such a prominent service such as the 21! If the X21 is competing well with the 6 by offering that extra stretch from Durham to Newcastle then perhaps the 21 would do too!
The thing is though when you start to compete on the busy principal routes other passengers get hit hard instead. For example the 21 might make £60k a day in revenue which is 60% of the revenue for CLS depot and you need £70k a day to keep the depot running. If Arriva come along and some how take some of your fares plus price reductions to competing resulting in a 50% drop in revenue leaving you with £30k, GNE is only left with £30k of the 21 money. With the other 40% money you've only now not making a profit at CLS because your principal route has lost all it's money but without the other routes then the 21 wouldn't make money either because of connections and value of money.
You're now stuck in a bit of a sticky position where you've some grim options:
- Do nothing and make no profit (pointless).
- Cut the 21 but you're likely to lose even more lose money on the 21.
- Cut marginal services to get costs down but be at risk of losing money on the 21 and the reputational damage of leaving places with no buses at all where Arriva have no interest in ever running to
- Increase other routes fares to compensate for the loss of the 21.
- Attack Arriva and gain money from somewhere else.
I know you mentioned Brandon but they won't be the customers who'll be affected it'll be the passengers on the further afield services like the 56 / 57 etc which are infrequent enough as it is or there'll be further cuts on evening services leaving villages without a lifeline on routes that GNE will never have an interest in operating. For the 21 example, that'll be the 25 and 28 services getting the chop.