(22 May 2021, 11:17 pm)Storx wrote The thing is though when you start to compete on the busy principal routes other passengers get hit hard instead. For example the 21 might make £60k a day in revenue which is 60% of the revenue for CLS depot and you need £70k a day to keep the depot running. If Arriva come along and some how take some of your fares plus price reductions to competing resulting in a 50% drop in revenue leaving you with £30k, GNE is only left with £30k of the 21 money. With the other 40% money you've only now not making a profit at CLS because your principal route has lost all it's money but without the other routes then the 21 wouldn't make money either because of connections and value of money.
You're now stuck in a bit of a sticky position where you've some grim options:It's a massive risk and none of them are good for the customer or GNE / Arriva, we're already seeing signs of number 2 and 3 in North Tyneside with the Coast Road competition and Little Coaster network and Peterlee with the X6/X7 and with the SE Northumberland and earlier Darlington bus wars the bottom approach was definitely used.
- Do nothing and make no profit (pointless).
- Cut the 21 but you're likely to lose even more lose money on the 21.
- Cut marginal services to get costs down but be at risk of losing money on the 21 and the reputational damage of leaving places with no buses at all where Arriva have no interest in ever running to
- Increase other routes fares to compensate for the loss of the 21.
- Attack Arriva and gain money from somewhere else.
I know you mentioned Brandon but they won't be the customers who'll be affected it'll be the passengers on the further afield services like the 56 / 57 etc which are infrequent enough as it is or there'll be further cuts on evening services leaving villages without a lifeline on routes that GNE will never have an interest in operating. For the 21 example, that'll be the 25 and 28 services getting the chop.
The thing is though there are certain routes that ANE and GNE are never going to win a competition on because they are too much of a stronghold. There's no likelihood of Arriva taking enough money from the 21 because they're not dominant enough in that area. 9 times out of 10 when GNE have encroached in Arriva land they have lost and when Arriva have encroached in GNE land they've lost. Because it's those less frequent local routes that help to win the battle. ANE are never gonna win in Chester-le-Street because they have no other services there. GNE are never going to win in Darlington because they have no other services there. But if Arriva were to operate extra services from Durham to Chester-le-Street you can bet your bottom dollar GNE would re-increase the 21 to every 15 minutes between Durham and Chester-le-Street till Arriva's service eventually fails - because they don't have that end network!
Durham is an interesting case because while Arriva is dominant, GNE does have enough of a presence for it to work. That extension into Brandon, might have seen a bit of healthy competition, because both are frequent/prominent enough to survive. Would it result in either the 21 or 49/49a being withdrawn or reduced and other local services being withdrawn, it's highly unlikely because these are popular enough and the demand to support it is there. Two extra buses to Brandon isn't going to make the 49/49a unprofitable. Would the GNE extension to Brandon survive, perhaps if the Newcastle demand is there (as with the X21). GNE extending the X21 through to West Auckland hasn't caused Arriva's 6 to get withdrawn or any other Bishop Auckland or Durham services as a result. In this case both services are still running because the demand to support those two extra X21's alongside the 6 must be there! In fact in this example ANE haven't really bothered to respond, they've just decided to co-exist. Do I think the X21 extension will last forever, probably not, because Arriva are fundamentally dominant in the area, but it provides an alternative to passengers and ultimately more services. I do agree that East Durham is a dicey one because despite GNE's local network, they've not found success with the connective services. Having said that, despite GNE losing out as far as the X6/7 and 55 are concerned, has it resulted in the Peterlee local services being withdrawn, no it hasn't - in fact they're getting a rebrand which suggests the success of other remaining services (the X9/10) is enough to support them.
While I can see your point about the Coast Road, the issue there I feel is that both operators are in a stalemate, with too many buses going along there to support it - the point with those is that you have two high frequency services competing and not enough passengers. A low frequency service wriggling in on a high frequency service is a different kettle of fish. Ultimately, a twice hourly extension of the 21 to Brandon would hardly bring down Chester-le-Street depot, otherwise GNE would have never even contemplated it.
Overall, I don't see Arriva being that willing to put up a fight these days. As I said they haven't put newer buses or increased frequency on the 6 in response to the X21, they didn't bring back their own X21 in response to the X6/7, they haven't attempted a quicker service to Sunderland - probably because the demand just isn't there on top of their existing and the GNE services. I think they seem to be in an era of keeping things just as they are (excluding COVID frequency reductions).