(10 Aug 2021, 8:07 pm)Driver9*** wrote They won't.  They've been subsidised well by the government during the covid carry on.

CBSSG only covered the difference between revenue and costs = no profit made since April 2020 for any operator. CBSSG ends this month. That was an absolute minimum from the government given their choice to shut the country down and push 'anti-bus' propaganda.

The replacement fund from September, is more of a fixed pot arrangement, which operators will get a % £ of based on a mathematical % of miles operated & evidenced revenue foregone. It is HIGHLY likely operators will start to be loss making from this point onwards. There is no guarantee that what they get from the fund will cover the costs like CBSSG did. Service reductions incoming if that is the case = redundancies. GNE have already jumped the gun as they can see what is coming. ANE have held services down in some places, which now looks to be a shrewd move.

Beyond that is even scarier. Funding ends completely in April and 'should' see the start of Bus Service Improvement Plans (and the funding the government will allocate depending on how good the BSIP submitted by each authority actually is). Transport North East are leading on the Northumberland/Newcastle/Durham area, so yeah - good luck with that. Even the government isnt expecting 100% normalised passenger numbers from then - but they are going to pull the rug anyway. No profit = no investment. Small margins = service reductions as it is probably more lucrative to put the capital into a high interest savings account!

Inadequate funding from April I believe is very likely. As a result, we will see heroic service reductions (based on the principle that the vast majority of the billions of £ the government harp on about in the National Bus Strategy will ultimately be used as part of the ZEBRA fund and not revenue support. Most authorities will be lucky to get a few hundred grand at best - certainly not enough to sustain normal service or improve anything long term).

So whilst you are correct in that they certainly wont go into liquidation, the network, depot footprint, overhead staffing levels and investment will be the ones further hit to balance the books and send enough Euros to Germany.