(13 Nov 2022, 7:44 pm)Storx wrote Think it all depends on how it works. The best scenario for everyone would be to sub contract some boards out similar to what GNE are to A-Line etc in the short term until they can get driver's.But will Arriva manage to recruit drivers? Given that they lost a fair chunk from Jesmond, gonna be very hard to replace not forgetting that Blyth & Ashington also have minor shortages too on top.
I know it's the sort of routes that GNE gave away but there's still scope for movement ie downgrading to minibuses. The fact that they haven't been would suggest they're not as bad as some people think (we'll never know of course).
The costs of the depot though will surely outweight the costs of dead running. Jesmond was literally falling apart by the end you have to remember that, it's no different to CLS which was handled horrifically aswell and the driver issues there resolved pretty quickly bar Riverside which is still struggling to an extent.
It'll be interesting to see what happens with GNE long term aswell as there's quite a few marginal routes at awkward depots, the 6 in particular. Both really messed up imo and just to add the third in because why not Stagecoach in Sunderland is an absolute shambles aswell.
Plus looking at things geographically, are there going to be many people in South East Northumberland looking to become bus drivers? And then anyone who lives further north in North Tyneside will likely be swayed by GNE (Percy Main) or Stagecoach (Walkergate / Slatyford) rather than Blyth or Ashington.
Even if the 50 series routes all got downgraded to minibuses, are Arriva going to want the hassle of them routes including issues such as the Clean Air Zone that will cost money longer term? Asides from the the 306 that interworks with the 308 and the 43/44/45 which are money makers, the move to Blyth and Ashington is effectively Northumberland centered. The 51/52/53/54/55 barely touch Northumberland other than Cramlington (52/53).
If Arriva can't find replacement drivers to fill the gaps plus the headaches of the 47 & 50's, I reckon the 47/51/52/53/54/55 would just go out to tender with Stagecoach picking up the full 685. That would automatically sort the driver numbers out for Blyth & Ashington including Blyth picking up the 306 (as now) and Ashington or Blyth picking up the 43/44/45.
Going to be interesting in March as that is when the North Tyneside network tends to be reviewed with the Nexus contracts & tenders.