(13 Nov 2022, 6:07 pm)L469 YVK wrote But what's going to happen if Arriva can't provide a suitable level of service on the 43/44/45? Jesmond's old moneymakers alongside the 306.
Surely another operator who has the resources available would look to exploit the gap.
What other operator will have the resources readily available?
The M-F PVR of the 43/44/45 is 9. If we say around 2-3 drivers per bus per day, then you're looking at about 25 drivers per day needed to operate it. That's not accounting for Saturday or Sunday operation, holidays, driver sickness, driver training. So, as quite a conservative estimate, you'll need at least 30 drivers available to operate it if we assume there'll be some happy to do overtime.
Given that all of the large operators are still, as far as I know, suffering to some degree from the shortage then I doubt any are in a position to actively seek that much work at present.
(13 Nov 2022, 8:31 pm)L469 YVK wrote But will Arriva manage to recruit drivers? Given that they lost a fair chunk from Jesmond, gonna be very hard to replace not forgetting that Blyth & Ashington also have minor shortages too on top.
Plus looking at things geographically, are there going to be many people in South East Northumberland looking to become bus drivers? And then anyone who lives further north in North Tyneside will likely be swayed by GNE (Percy Main) or Stagecoach (Walkergate / Slatyford) rather than Blyth or Ashington.
The ANE driving school has had a constant influx of new drivers for a good period of time as far as I know. From what I've heard, any shortage at Ashington now is mainly due to sickness and holidays rather than being massively short of drivers on paper - I'm inclined to believe Blyth were similar pre-Jesmond work.
Interestingly I know of a few ANE drivers who commute up to Northumberland out of Tyneside as they prefer driving routes there rather than crawl around Newcastle suburbs with Stagecoach.