(24 May 2023, 7:17 pm)F114TML wrote How much time are you giving the 3 and 4 at each end? I've been told it's actually a decrease of 16, which would imply little-to-no standing time on either (rumours were 1 min either end on the 4, which is gonna be fun given it often takes more than a minute to get round the turning circle at Downhill). I don't know if this figure includes the 99 withdrawal though.
On the current timetables, if you cut out Gilley Law and Plains Farm on the 3 - you're looking at a round journey time of 79 minutes excluding stand time (currently 89 mins I believe). If we're working on a 15 minute frequency, you'd round that up to a 90 minutes giving 11 minutes stand time on the 3. (PVR: 8 to 6)
Similarly, with the 4, adding approx. 3 mins each way to cover Plains Farm will mean a round trip of 98 minutes. If we're working in increments of 15, then a 105 min round trip would give 7 mins stand time on one circuit. (PVR: 9 to 7)
A loss of PVR 16 sounds possible. My figure of 14 doesn't account for the possible withdrawal of the 99. From my calculations - you could squeeze out another 2 PVR by giving 1 minute (!!) stand time on a 10/11 circuit and no stand time on a round trip of the 16.
PVR:
Route 3: (8 to 6) -2
Route 4: (9 to 7) -2
Route 10/11: (10 to 8) -2 (this could be -3)
Route 13: (10 to 7) -3
Route 16: (9 to 7) -2 (this could be -3)
Route 20: (5 to 4) -1
Route 23: (7 to 5) -2
All other routes remain the same. This gives a PVR loss of 14 - unless they're being unrealistically adventurous, then it's a loss of 16.
Either way, stand time is being tightened up and it's gonna cause operational nightmares. I see 3s, 4s, 16s already bunching up during the day. I can imagine the chaos come July.