(27 May 2023, 12:46 pm)mb134 wrote Again, as Omnicity4659 has said, I think yourself and others are massively underestimating the amount of local travel on the SE Northumberland 'X' services.
Newbiggin to Ashington, Ashington to Stakeford, Ashington to Guide Post, Ashington to Bedlington, Bedlington Station to Bedlington, Blyth to Cramlington, Ashington/Bedlington to Cramlington Industrial Estates, Ashington/Bedlington/Newbiggin/Blyth to Wansbeck Hospital, Bebside to Blyth, Newsham to Blyth are all popular travel patterns that aren't impacted *at all* by the introduction of trains. There's also the flows from Newcastle to Cramlington Industrial Estates, which are nice earners for the buses leaving Newcastle during the AM peak.
On top of those flows, there's all the less than optimal station locations. If you're living in the southern part of Ashington around The Elephant, are you walking to the train station (about a 25 minute walk itself) and getting the train - or just hopping on the bus to Newcastle? Same goes for those living in the centre of Blyth and Bedlington.
I think it's reasonably clear, with the number of parking spots being created, what the target market is for the line.
Even for the Newcastle traffic - I'd urge you to see the Morpeth express services each morning. At the very least the 0713 X18, 0728 X14, and 0743 X15 are pretty much full, every day, and lots of that custom is from Morpeth. Even the 0803 X18 is looks pretty healthy leaving Morpeth Bus Station on the days when I see it.
Anecdotally, mainly from what I've seen myself on my commute and heard from drivers that I've talked to, passenger numbers currently are very healthy too - I'd suggest this could be partially why we're not seeing huge cuts on these routes in July.
Aye that's some valid points but one thing that we might see is the complete change in flows ie someone from Bedlington station might get the bus to Ashington as it takes ages to get to Newcastle. Now with the train it's 50/50 so they might change where they go.
Personally though I think it's the X7/X8/X9/X20/X21 that will suffer the most. The others less so.
Who knows we can all predict but similar openings have seen bus use plummet.
I guess it depends how Arriva responds aswell as by leaving routes as they are long term won't benefit them. For example would it be better to have an extra 1 an hour vs an extra X21 if flows are changing and more 57/57A's vs the X22 just to pick two. They both do those links and would offer alternative destinations supplementing the trains.
Similar would it better to drop the X8 and even one of the X10/X11 and replace it with 43 extensions and offer more links etc.
A 10% loss in patronage could be enough to tipple them to marginal services but that depends on how much they're realistically doing. You have to remember there's no express services from Kirkhill or Stobhill to Newcastle, the two areas closest to Morpeth station.