(27 May 2023, 1:16 pm)Storx wrote Aye that's some valid points but one thing that we might see is the complete change in flows ie someone from Bedlington station might get the bus to Ashington as it takes ages to get to Newcastle. Now with the train it's 50/50 so they might change where they go. 

Personally though I think it's the X7/X8/X9/X20/X21 that will suffer the most. The others less so. 

Who knows we can all predict but similar openings have seen bus use plummet. 

I guess it depends how Arriva responds aswell as by leaving routes as they are long term won't benefit them. For example would it be better to have an extra 1 an hour vs an extra X21 if flows are changing and more 57/57A's vs the X22 just to pick two. They both do those links and would offer alternative destinations supplementing the trains. 

Similar would it better to drop the X8 and even one of the X10/X11 and replace it with 43 extensions and offer more links etc.

A 10% loss in patronage could be enough to tipple them to marginal services but that depends on how much they're realistically doing. You have to remember there's no express services from Kirkhill or Stobhill to Newcastle, the two areas closest to Morpeth station.

Let's be honest, if people in Bedlington Station are getting the bus to Ashington it's for a specific reason. It's also not 50/50, there's 5 buses per hour between Bedlington Station and Ashington, which serve multiple areas of both places, versus the 2 trains per hour that then require a walk to get to where people want to go. Anyone who currently goes to Ashington from Bedlington Station and will suddenly hop on a train to Newcastle are in an incredibly small minority. 

I can't speak massively for the Blyth routes, but the X21 does very well from local hops that I detailed earlier that won't be impacted at all by the train. The X20 is similar - not a single person from North Seaton is going to choose the train over the X20, nor are people from Lynemouth or Ellington. 

Nobody will truly know how this will impact Arriva Northumbria until the line opens and settles in, but having a pretty good idea of how passenger flows are on the routes that are likely to be impacted, I personally don't see the impact being anywhere near as bad as what people are making it out to be.