(24 May 2024, 9:40 am)Adrian wrote They're not winning votes, though. If you look at all the Parliamentary by-election results recently, they're not winning seats because they're increasing the number of people voting Labour. They're winning them because Tory voters aren't turning out. So for all intents and purposes, their lunge to the right has been futile so far.
I'd say that's largely down to the leader, who is a wind-sock, and it's why his messaging of "Country first, Party second" doesn't work. It's well-publicised that he's broken every promise he's made. So much so that he doesn't call them promises anymore. He continues to put wet-wipe ministers on the media rounds, who get caught out every time they're questioned on a particular policy, and then immediately resort to the hyperbole about Labour being 'a changed party'
I also don't think it's fair to suggest that it's only the far-right or far-left who see the Conservatives and Labour as broadly comparable. That's not the message we received on the doorstep during the May campaigning. A lot of swing-voters would sooner not bother, than take a chance on what Starmer has to offer. One common criticism was that people felt he was untrustworthy.
It's not even during campaigning that you hear this. I work with several different workplaces, and whenever I speak to people, it's clear that a lot of people in this country are genuinely fed up and feel left behind after 14 years of Tory Government. They should be looking towards a Labour Party for hope and change, but Starmer refuses to commit to any of that.
Not even something as simple to fix as removing the two-child benefit cap, which would pull an estimated 250,000 children out of poverty overnight. Or the 'New Deal for Workers', most of which wouldn't cost a penny, but would massively benefit workers. Is that putting the Country first?
Will I be delighted to see the back of the Tories? Absolutely! But I've no enthusiasm about the thought of a Starmer Labour Government either. Maybe five years will convince me, maybe it won't.
For clarity I don't think this version of Labour is perfect, far from it. There are a number of things that I hope they commit to doing at some stage that they haven't yet, and there are some stances which I disagree with.
That said, onto your post:
In fairness by-election turnout is always lower than turnout in a General Election. Admittedly even these are lower than the average of 50.2%, but I don't think you can say Labour are only winning them because the Tory vote isn't going out.
How can you already say his messaging of "Country First, Party Second" doesn't work? They're miles ahead in the opinion polls, and the response I've seen to that messaging on social media from people who aren't on the far left/right is pretty positive.
In terms of the 'wet-wipe' ministers, are you including people like Darren Jones in that? He deals fantastically well with interviews, and from what I've seen answers honestly when he doesn't know the answer rather than resorting to waffle. I can't find the clip now, but I saw a video the other day where he was asked about voter ID and he essentially had to pass and apologised for that, but was sent a text with the answer and delivered that later on.
In terms of the promises being broken, while I'm not condoning that, there needs to be some pragmatism. The country now is in a far worse place even when compared to when Starmer was elected leader of Labour. It would be foolish to continue full steam ahead with policies that financially may no longer be achievable, and it would be another tool for the media to attack them with in the run up to the election.
I agree that I'd much prefer to be excited to vote in a Labour who are promising huge changes for the country, and I think in any other election we'd need to see more of that. This election is massively different and, if they play their cards right and appeal to people who would usually vote Conservative (which includes not being too bold, I think), then it's a chance to absolutely decimate the Conservatives.
To me this election is an opportunity to get decent people running the country again. You can't do anything when you're not in power, we haven't had a Labour government for 14 years, and look where the country is now. By pretty much every metric we are worse than how Labour left us in 2010 - that alone should point to the difference between the two parties.