(24 May 2024, 10:33 am)Adrian wrote For reference to my by-election point.
Blackpool South - CON to LAB
2024: 10,825 (58.9%) LAB, 3,218 (17.5%) CON - 32.5% turnout
2019: 12,557 (38.3%) LAB, 16,247 (49.6%) CON - 56.8% turnout
Labour vote down 1,732
Rochdale - LAB to WPB
2024: 2,402 (7.7%) LAB, 3,731 (12.0%) CON, 12,335 (39.7%) WPB - 39.7% turnout
2019: 24,475 (51.6%) LAB, 14,807 (31.2%) CON, No WPB - 60.1% turnout
Labour vote down 22,073
Kingswood - CON to LAB
2024: 11,176 (44.9%) LAB, 8,675 (34.9%) CON - 37.1% turnout
2019: 16,492 (33.4%) LAB, 27,712 (56.2%) CON - 71.5% turnout
Labour vote down 5,316
Wellingborough - CON to LAB
2024: 13,844 (45.9%) LAB, 7,408 (24.6%) CON - 38.0% turnout
2019: 13,737 (26.5%) LAB, 32,277 (62.2%) CON - 64.3% turnout
Labour vote down 6,329
Tamworth - CON to LAB
2023: 11,719 (45.8%) LAB, 10,403 (40.7%) CON - 35.9% turnout
2019: 10,908 (23.7%) LAB, 30,542 (66.3%) CON - 64.3% turnout
Labour vote up by 811.
Mid Beds - CON to LAB
2023: 13,872 (34.1%) LAB, 12,680 (31.1%) CON - 44.1% turnout
2019: 14,028 (21.7%) LAB, 38,692 (59.8%) CON - 73.7% turnout
Labour vote down by 156
I'm not sure that's a fair comparison, by-elections always have a lower turnout so it's hard to say that it's the Tories not turning up. It's likely the Labour voters aren't turning up either as they're a waste of time at the end of the day.
Personally I'd say the vast majority of swing voters just want the Tories out as they're awful. Labour could put a monkey in charge right now and most would vote for them because the Tories are done with a fair chunk jumping a sinking ship, hence the likes of Gove are 'retiring'.
The bigger challenge is in 5 years time, as I agree Starmer is a bit dull, and if nothing really changes and the Tories seriously get their house in order (and head more central) then they could be in big trouble as there's a lot of people voting Labour because the Tories are bad, rather than voting Labour because they're good. Whatever people's thoughts on them but the Tories badly need the likes of Rory Stewart back in the party vs the loons like Braverman.