(15 Dec 2024, 6:42 pm)L469 YVK wrote See.....I'm hearing opposite. We've just got a new apprentice who lives in Ashington, and lives a good 15 minute walk away from the station so will still be using the X21.

I think the Train will take off the buses if people switch for more convenient travel patterns (i.e needing Metro south of Tyne etc) or working deeper into the City / Quayside. If anything, the train will most likely attract current car users than poach bus users, at least for Ashington & Bedlington Station.

Arriva must share the same view if they've decided to restore the 20 minute frequency on the X21/X22. If anything.....Arriva would be better going from doubles to singles rather than reducing frequency if demand dropped.

Obviously, I don't know where you work, but presuming you work somewhere within the city centre of Newcastle, even with a 15 minute walk to Ashington station, it's still going to be just as quick to use the train as it would be to catch the X21 (which may be delayed further due to traffic/being stuck at level crossings etc.). 

I think where the X21 will be able to retain patronage is through weekly/monthly/annual passes. On a daily fare, the cost between the two is negligible. People will probably choose the slightly more expensive but quicker option as a result. However, unless the Northumberland Line already has a season ticket option available, it might prove to be more cost effective to use the X21 (or X20/X22 - as the case may be). 

Time will tell though.